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The document analyzes Russia's strategic pivot toward Africa as a means to diversify partners and evade Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. It argues that while Africa is not a central priority for the Kremlin, it serves as a critical 'theater' for projecting power, securing natural resources, and challenging US-led unipolarity. The paper details Russia's approach across several sectors, including arms sales, nuclear energy, and mining, while highlighting the role of the Wagner Group in providing security in exchange for resource access. It concludes that Russia leverages African support at the UN to maintain its status as a global power and to promote a multipolar international system.

The report concludes that the EU's demand for fossil gas and oil is in a long-term structural decline, making new production projects—especially in the Arctic—unnecessary and incompatible with 1.5°C warming limits. Analysis shows that existing production and current contracts will likely exceed EU demand by the 2030s in net-zero aligned scenarios, creating a risk of oversupply and stranded assets.

The report identifies four 'pillars' of protest—demands, strategy, composition, and organization—that influence the size of a movement and the likelihood of regime loyalty shifts. It argues that non-violent, broad-based campaigns demanding regime change are most likely to succeed and lead to democratic consolidation. However, it notes a recent decline in the success rate of such movements and a rise in anti-liberal protests. For international democracy promoters, the report recommends investing in civil society infrastructure during stable periods rather than attempting to instigate regime shifts.

The author argues that Germany is struggling to balance its 'exportist' economic model and corporate interests with a more recent emphasis on a 'rules-based order' and human rights in its foreign policy. Historically, German engagement in Africa has been characterized by a light footprint and a focus on extracting raw materials, such as oil and minerals. The paper suggests that Germany should move away from this extractivist approach and instead support African-led initiatives for domestic resource mobilisation and regional complementarities, particularly through the AfCFTA, to foster a more just and green transition.

The EU aims to import 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030 to decarbonize heavy industry and transport, as domestic production is expected to fall short of demand. The report identifies the US Gulf Coast, Australia, and other regions with low renewable energy costs as key potential suppliers. To activate this trade, the EU needs to invest in port infrastructure (ammonia terminals and crackers), clarify certification schemes, and provide €15 billion to €20 billion in public support to offset green premiums over blue hydrogen. While Northwest Europe will rely heavily on imports, Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal) is expected to become more self-sufficient by the mid-2030s.

The document examines the disproportionate impact of climate change on African youth and their subsequent rise in activism. It highlights the gap between youth demographics and political leadership in Africa, the specific climate vulnerabilities in countries like Nigeria and Sudan, and the systemic barriers activists face, including financial constraints and state repression. The author calls for the establishment of youth councils, dedicated funding, and protection mechanisms to ensure young people can shape climate-resilient policies.

The Stockholm Environment Institute and the FAO have developed a WEAP PlugIn that allows for the calculation of water stress at the sub-basin level rather than just on a country-wide basis. By disaggregating data, water resource managers can better visualize spatial variations in water stress and test the impact of different management strategies, such as reducing canal losses or accounting for population growth. The tool uses the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) Shift method to incorporate environmental flow requirements into its calculations. The briefing demonstrates the tool's application using the Senegal River basin and lists recommendations for its implementation in other basins.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The document examines Africa's natural gas landscape, noting that while the continent holds approximately 10% of global proven gas reserves, a lack of domestic infrastructure means most production is destined for export. It highlights a potential global LNG supply glut starting in mid-2025 and 2026, which may lower prices and profits for exporters. Key reserves are concentrated in Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya, while new discoveries are emerging in countries like Mozambique and Senegal. Specific large-scale projects are detailed for Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

The report identifies Africa as a net energy exporter, though it forecasts that total energy demand will exceed production by 2039. While a small group of countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola maintain high export values, a significant number of African nations remain heavily dependent on energy imports, a group expected to expand by 2043.

The document reports that Africa holds 111.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) in proven oil reserves, representing 5% of the global total. Five countries—Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Angola—account for 80% of these reserves.

The document is a curated list of resources published between 2005 and 2023 that challenge the validity and ethics of various climate mitigation strategies. It categorizes these resources into reports and briefings, blogs, articles, press releases, and other media. The listed materials focus on the perceived dangers of carbon markets, geoengineering, and corporate-led 'net zero' strategies, often framing them as 'false solutions' that may facilitate continued fossil fuel use or result in 'green colonialism'.

The document analyzes the distinct paths toward statehood for Somaliland and the SADR, contrasting Somaliland's case of secession from Somalia with the SADR's struggle for self-determination against Moroccan occupation. It examines how the African Union's adherence to inviolable colonial borders, despite precedents like Eritrea and South Sudan, complicates these efforts. The authors argue that both territories seek to reclaim colonial-era boundaries rather than alter them, yet they face significant economic and political hurdles due to a lack of formal recognition.

The report examines the climate and health impacts of routine gas flaring in 20 countries that export oil and gas to the European Union. It finds that nearly 10 million people live within 5km of active flares in these nations, with Iraq and Nigeria being the most affected. The authors argue that the EU can use its buying power to catalyze flaring reductions by adopting a methane import standard, which would align with the EU's Global Health Strategy and the Global Methane Pledge.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends that the EU prioritise 'no regrets' industrial sectors for hydrogen deployment, utilize all clean production pathways (including 'blue' hydrogen), and site production close to consumption to minimize transport inefficiencies. The report emphasizes that public funding should be matched to projects that provide socio-economic benefits to local communities and that a comprehensive EU database should be established to ensure transparency and collaboration.

The global steel sector faces significant challenges in decarbonization, with emissions intensity growing by 0.5% annually since 2010. While hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (H-DRI) and Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) offer paths to near-zero emissions, their deployment is hindered by high costs, limited green hydrogen supply, and a shortage of high-grade iron ore. The report highlights a geographic divide: the EU and US are shifting toward low-emission tech supported by subsidies and carbon pricing, while high-growth regions like India continue to expand high-emission Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) capacity. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is viewed as a necessary but expensive tool for abating existing capacity, though commercial-scale projects remain limited.

The report finds that importing large quantities of low-carbon hydrogen to Europe is expensive and energy-inefficient due to hydrogen's low volumetric energy density. Pipeline transport is consistently more cost-effective than maritime shipping, with Norway and Algeria identified as the most competitive pipeline sources. Among maritime options, ammonia is the lowest-cost carrier, with the Arabian Gulf being the most economical exporter. The analysis suggests that importing LNG to produce hydrogen at the point of import may be more feasible than long-distance hydrogen transport. CATF recommends that the European Commission re-examine its 2030 target of 20 million tonnes of clean hydrogen per year, as it may lack a clear basis.

Analysis of July 2023, likely Earth's record hottest month, shows that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood of extreme heat globally. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the report finds that 6.5 billion people experienced at least one day where heat was at least three times more likely due to climate change. Particularly strong influences were noted in the Caribbean, Mexico, the southern U.S., and parts of Africa and Asia. In the U.S., 73% of the population experienced at least one day at CSI level 3 or higher, with several cities in Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona showing the strongest climate fingerprints.

The analysis finds that July 2023 was likely Earth's hottest month on record, with human-caused climate change making extreme heat significantly more likely for a vast majority of the global population. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the report demonstrates that 81% of people experienced at least one day where temperatures were at least three times more likely due to climate change. The strongest signals were observed in tropical regions and small island developing states, where conditions were often five times more likely due to human influence. The report highlights specific record-breaking temperatures in Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, emphasizing that such extremes will increase in frequency as long as fossil fuel combustion continues.

The document establishes a consensus across multiple energy models, including the IEA NZE and IPCC pathways, that no new oil and gas fields should be developed to meet the 1.5 target. It argues that oil and gas production must decline by at least 65% by 2050 from 2020 levels. The brief asserts that the energy crisis in Europe caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine does not justify new fossil fuel production, as existing capacity and demand reduction can meet needs. It highlights a significant investment gap in renewables, noting that annual solar and wind investments must reach USD 830 billion by 2030 to bridge a USD 450 billion annual gap. Finally, it recommends that financial institutions cease financing new oil and gas projects and push for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.