The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe

This report by RMI analyzes the strategic importance of green hydrogen imports for the European Union to meet its 2030 decarbonization and energy security targets. It argues that domestic production alone will be insufficient to meet demand, particularly in Northwest Europe, and that the EU must urgently address policy gaps in funding, certification, and port infrastructure to facilitate trade with global suppliers like the United States and Australia.

• The EU is projected to face significant supply gaps in green hydrogen by 2030, as domestic project pipelines are insufficient to meet the demand of most Member States. This necessitates the import of renewable hydrogen to avoid siphoning off constrained renewable power needed for direct electrification of buildings and road transport.
• The United States is positioned as a highly competitive short-term supplier for Europe by 2030, largely due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Tax credits under Sections 45V and 45Y are estimated to reduce the levelized cost of green hydrogen for a new plant reaching FID in 2030 by $2.83/kg, making US exports cheaper than local European production in select ports.
• There is a strategic risk that the EU may rely on 'blue' (gas-derived) hydrogen in the short term due to lower costs and existing infrastructure. However, the report warns that this could lead to carbon lock-in and verification difficulties regarding emissions intensity, potentially negating climate benefits.
• To achieve the EU's target of importing 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030 at costs competitive with fossil fuels, an estimated €15 billion to €20 billion in public support is required. This investment is projected to unlock over €300 billion in private spending on electrolyzers, renewable energy, and infrastructure.
• European port infrastructure is currently insufficient to meet import ambitions. The report suggests that an investment of approximately €1.8 billion in ammonia offloading terminals, crackers, and storage facilities—particularly in Northwest Europe—is needed to enable sufficient imports by 2030.
• Regional dynamics within the EU will vary: Northwest Europe (including Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium) will rely heavily on imports due to land constraints. Conversely, Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal) is expected to produce domestic green hydrogen at costs that will outcompete subsidized imports by 2040.

APA

RMI (2023). The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe. https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/

Chicago

RMI. The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe. 2023. https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe |date=4 December 2023 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2023value, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }