The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe

The EU aims to import 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030 to decarbonize heavy industry and transport, as domestic production is expected to fall short of demand. The report identifies the US Gulf Coast, Australia, and other regions with low renewable energy costs as key potential suppliers. To activate this trade, the EU needs to invest in port infrastructure (ammonia terminals and crackers), clarify certification schemes, and provide €15 billion to €20 billion in public support to offset green premiums over blue hydrogen. While Northwest Europe will rely heavily on imports, Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal) is expected to become more self-sufficient by the mid-2030s.

• The EU is projected to face a significant supply gap in green hydrogen by 2030, with nearly all Member States unable to meet their projected demand through domestic production alone.
• The United States is positioned as a highly competitive early supplier for Europe, particularly from the US Gulf Coast, due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits (Sections 45V and 45Y) which could reduce the levelized cost of green hydrogen by an estimated $2.83/kg for plants reaching FID in 2030.
• There is a distinct geographic divide in the EU's future hydrogen needs: Northwest Europe (Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium) will likely remain dependent on imports due to land constraints, whereas Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal) is expected to produce domestic green hydrogen at costs that outcompete subsidized imports by 2040.
• To achieve the target of 10 million tons of green hydrogen by 2030 at costs competitive with fossil fuels, the EU requires between €15 billion and €20 billion in public support, which is estimated to unlock over €300 billion in private investment.
• The EU faces a risk of 'locking in' reliance on blue hydrogen if early off-takers choose it over green hydrogen due to lower short-term costs, which could jeopardize decarbonization goals due to difficulties in verifying the emissions intensity of imported blue hydrogen.
• Current EU port infrastructure is insufficient for the planned scale of imports; the report suggests an investment of approximately €1.8 billion in ammonia offloading terminals, storage, and crackers to bridge the 2030 supply gap.

APA

RMI (2023). The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe. https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/

Chicago

RMI. The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe. 2023. https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe |date=4 December 2023 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2023value, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{The Value of Green Hydrogen Trade for Europe}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2023}, month = dec, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/the-value-of-green-hydrogen-trade-for-europe/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }