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The document assesses the effects of US Executive Order 14257, which introduced a 10% universal tariff and higher country-specific tariffs (11% to 50%) on imports from 190 countries. While mineral-exporting nations like Angola and South Africa may find relief through exemptions for oil and critical minerals, countries like Lesotho and Madagascar face severe economic risks, particularly in the textile sector. The analysis highlights a strategic divide: some nations seek bilateral deals, others aim for self-sufficiency, and a group of African WTO members are coordinating through the 'Friends of the System'. The authors argue that African nations should negotiate collectively under the African Union to protect regional integration and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as the AGOA program faces expiration on September 30, 2025.

The paper analyzes the economic consequences of US Executive Order 14257, which introduced universal and country-specific tariffs on imports from 190 territories. While many African nations face a 10% universal tariff, 20 countries face higher rates ranging from 11% to 50%, with Lesotho most affected. The authors highlight the vulnerability of textile industries in Lesotho and Madagascar and the uncertainty surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which expires on September 30, 2025. The document advocates for a coordinated regional response via the African Union and the African Continental Free Trade Area to mitigate economic risks and negotiate bilateral or sectoral agreements.

The document examines the potential for rechannelling Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from wealthy IMF member states to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB), to address Africa's annual financing gap of over $400 billion. It details a proposal where SDRs would serve as hybrid capital, allowing the AfDB to leverage funds up to four times on capital markets. The brief identifies significant political and legal barriers, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary financing prohibition and the lack of formal commitment from major holders like China, Japan, and the US. It recommends that South Africa's G20 presidency use diplomacy to seek ECB clarification, coordinate a Liquidity Support Agreement (LSA) with bilateral partners, and explore innovative fiscal tools such as SDR bonds or direct allocations to prescribed holders.

The document analyzes the factors driving the high demand for BRICS membership, introducing the concept of 'magnetic pull'—where ideas about development and systemic reform act as coalition magnets. It traces the group's expansion from South Africa's entry in 2010 to the 2023 enlargement (adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) and the 2024 introduction of a 'Partner Country' category. While the group's appeal is rooted in South-South cooperation and de-dollarization, the author notes challenges to internal cohesion and the limits of its attraction, as seen in Argentina's rejection of membership.

The report argues that European oil and gas companies are pursuing LNG projects in Africa that expose host countries to significant financial and environmental risks. Due to delayed revenue-sharing structures and a predicted global LNG supply glut by the 2030s, African states face the prospect of stranded assets and debt traps. The document highlights a contradiction between Europe's domestic decarbonization goals and its promotion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa, while noting that high breakeven costs make African producers particularly vulnerable to price competition.

The report finds that 10 major international oil companies (IOCs) are responsible for 7% of global gas flaring on an equity-weighted basis, with a significant portion occurring at non-operated assets. In 2023, total global upstream flaring was 145 billion cubic meters (bcm), with an average intensity of 5.0 m³/bbl. The analysis highlights a gap between corporate commitments to the World Bank's Zero Routine Flaring (ZRF) initiative and actual performance, noting that non-routine flaring remains largely unabated and that no analyzed company meets the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario target of 0.3 m³/bbl by 2030. The report argues that IOCs have a broader influence on up to 40% of global flaring through their partnerships with national oil companies (NOCs) and recommends extending emissions targets to non-operated assets and implementing stricter regulatory and financial levers.

The paper argues that green technologies in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, waste management, and green construction can significantly reduce youth unemployment in Africa. It highlights specific successes, such as Morocco's Noor Solar Complex and South Africa's REIPPPP, while noting that widespread adoption is blocked by financing gaps, currency volatility, and policy-implementation disconnects. The authors recommend targeted vocational training, blended finance models, and strengthened public-private partnerships to unlock these opportunities.

The document examines industrialisation trends in Africa, identifying South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt as leaders while highlighting the challenges of commodity dependence and premature deindustrialisation. It analyzes specific success stories in Ethiopia's textiles, Rwanda's ICT, and Ghana's automotive sectors, and argues for structuralist policies and increased EU support for green industries and climate finance to accelerate the transition.

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The research paper argues that German-African industrial relations are underperforming due to a skewed German perception of Africa as a crisis-ridden region rather than a diverse set of economic opportunities. It highlights the growth of several African economies and the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while noting that German business engagement remains low and government strategies are often uncoordinated and paternalistic. The authors recommend that Germany replace aid with trade and investment, particularly in green hydrogen, and that African governments increase transparency and infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment.

The Sahel region is experiencing a major geopolitical shift as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and severed ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This move reflects deep-seated anti-French and anti-EU sentiment, driven by perceptions of neo-colonialism and a focus on security and migration over socio-economic development. As the EU's influence wanes, Russia has expanded its presence through military cooperation and strategic economic interests, including potential control over Niger's uranium. The author argues that the EU and ECOWAS must move away from punitive sanctions and colonial-era approaches toward equal partnerships and dialogue to maintain stability and influence in the region.

North Africa faces critical ecological security threats from water scarcity and advancing desertification, which are expected to intensify by 2040 due to climate change and population growth. The region is experiencing declining rainfall, extreme heat waves, and sea-level rise, which threaten food security and socio-economic stability. Key vulnerabilities include the overexploitation of groundwater and a high dependence on food imports. The document recommends a transition to sustainable agriculture, including drip irrigation and drought-resistant crops, alongside wastewater recycling and community-based resilience initiatives.

The report finds that many of the world's largest fossil fuel producers fail to address the transition of the fossil fuel sector in their climate plans. It argues that third-generation NDCs must include specific targets, pathways, and policies to wind down production in alignment with the COP 28 agreement to ensure a just and orderly transition.

From June 11-13, 2024, over 290 million people in Northern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East are forecast to experience extreme heat made at least five times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Maximum temperatures of 40°C or higher are expected in several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt. The document highlights risks including wildfires in Greece, damage to Bulgaria's rose oil production, and increased vulnerability for refugees in Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria.

The report analyzes the current state of fossil fuel production references in the climate commitments of the 20 largest producers and provides a framework for including production phase-outs in future NDCs and LT-LEDS. It finds that most producers either omit production plans or signal continued extraction, which contradicts 1.5°C-compatible scenarios. The authors propose five key elements for new commitments: background production data, phase-out targets, restrictive policies, just transition planning, and equity-based international cooperation.

The report evaluates Nigeria's strategy to expand LNG production to offset declining oil revenues, warning that such investments risk becoming stranded assets as global demand shifts toward clean energy after 2030. It highlights that while Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest LNG exporter, the sector has not significantly improved domestic energy access or reduced poverty, and continues to be linked to environmental degradation and social conflict in the Niger Delta.

The document argues that superhot rock energy could provide a ubiquitous, carbon-free, and land-efficient power source for the MENA region, leveraging existing subsurface expertise from the oil and gas industry to overcome technological hurdles.

The author examines the tension in German foreign policy between corporate profit interests and a values-based rhetoric, specifically regarding its engagement with Africa. Historically, Germany's approach has been 'economistic,' focusing on raw material imports and machinery exports. The paper argues that current geopolitical shifts and the need for critical minerals provide an opportunity for Germany to move away from post-colonial models. It suggests that instead of merely securing cheap resources, Germany should support a pan-African industrial policy, the mobilization of domestic resources, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to foster sustainable development and reduce Africa's dependence on raw material exports.

The document identifies a short-term opportunity for African gas producers to fill global supply gaps caused by the war in Ukraine, but warns that new infrastructure investments face a high risk of becoming stranded assets as the world moves toward net-zero.

The document examines how African nations have responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a trend toward non-alignment and a reluctance to support punitive measures against Russia. It argues that African responses are driven by a combination of historical grievances with Western leadership (such as the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya and COVID-19 vaccine inequity) and strategic national interests. The report details the economic opportunities arising from Europe's shift away from Russian energy, specifically regarding natural gas and critical minerals, while warning that geopolitical rivalry between the US, Russia, and China may undermine regional security initiatives like the Accra Initiative. It concludes by advocating for a foreign policy based on 'non-alignment' and 'indivisible security' to avoid becoming proxies in a new Cold War.