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This background note from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's energy export and import trends under a 'Current Path' forecast up to 2043, highlighting the contrast between a few major energy exporters and a majority of countries dependent on imports.

This briefing note provides data on proven oil reserves in Africa, citing BP as the source. It identifies the total reserves for the continent and specifies the five countries holding the vast majority of these reserves.

The November 2023 Peace & Security Council Report examines the diplomatic implications of the first Saudi-Africa summit, the coordination between the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the UN Security Council's A3 members, the precarious state of South Sudan's transition toward elections, and the AU's efforts to integrate youth into peacebuilding and economic integration via AfCFTA.

This report examines the illicit trafficking of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. It identifies six critical 'nodes' in tri-border areas that facilitate the flow of weapons. Key drivers of demand include security crises, personal safety, and climate-induced resource conflicts. The report highlights that a significant portion of illicit arms are produced locally or leak from state arsenals, and that profits from this trade are often laundered through real estate. Despite existing regional frameworks like the ECOWAS Convention, the report concludes that national implementation remains the primary obstacle to controlling proliferation.

This special edition of the Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the resurgence of military coups and unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) in Africa, specifically focusing on a 'third wave' since 2019. The report analyzes the drivers of these coups, the role of 'constitutional coups' (manipulating term limits), the impact of civil-military relations, and the effectiveness of African Union (AU) and regional sanctions.

This research paper examines illicit financial flows (IFFs) stemming from migrant smuggling in Senegal and Sierra Leone. It analyzes how smuggling proceeds are generated, moved through formal and informal channels, and laundered into legitimate sectors. The report highlights a significant gap between the existence of anti-money laundering policies and their practical implementation, noting that financial intelligence units in both countries lack the resources and expertise to effectively 'follow the money' in smuggling cases.

The July 2023 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outcomes of the fifth mid-year coordination meeting between the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs). It highlights systemic coordination failures in peace-making, the challenges of AU institutional reforms, and the potential of new initiatives like the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT) to deter unconstitutional changes of government. The report also discusses the security vacuum created by the withdrawal of the UN mission (MINUSMA) from Mali.

This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs outlines the systemic challenges facing food production in Africa and proposes specific interventions for the G20 to help the continent avoid missing the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and AU Agenda 2063 targets.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the intersection of agriculture, water access, and climate change in Algeria, forecasting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's vulnerability to commodity shocks, low agricultural productivity, and the severe socio-economic risks posed by rising temperatures and sea-level rise.

This report outlines the projected outcomes of the 'Algerian Dream' scenario for Algeria by 2040, a simulation where holistic reforms in governance, economic diversification, and policy interventions lead to significant growth compared to a 'Current Path' projection.

This research paper by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) examines the disparity between solar energy potential and installed capacity in developing economies, attributing the gap to high costs of capital driven by sovereign and off-taker risks. The authors propose the establishment of a Global Credit Guarantee Facility (GCGF) to de-risk cross-border financing and lower risk premiums for renewable energy projects in Emerging Market & Development Economy (EMDE) countries.

This research paper examines the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the West African Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. It identifies specific tri-border 'nodes' that facilitate trafficking and analyzes the socio-economic and security drivers, key actors, and the impact of these flows on regional stability and local economies.

This policy brief by Transforma and Power Shift Africa outlines a framework for a Just Energy Transition (JET) in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa. It advocates for a total phase-out of fossil fuels by 2040, emphasizing that the transition must be a comprehensive social, economic, and environmental transformation. The document highlights the need for grant-based financing from developed nations, the sustainable management of transition minerals, and the prioritization of energy access and social justice to address historical inequalities and the disproportionate impact of climate change on the Global South.

This research paper examines the historical and contemporary health cooperation between Germany and African nations, arguing that these relations remain unequal and lack reciprocity. The author contends that while Germany promotes multilateralism and health security, its actions often prioritize economic interests and security over the public health needs and autonomy of African partners, calling for a decolonial shift toward health and climate justice.

This case study discusses the role of coordinated investment promotion and regional value chains in the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), specifically highlighting the proposed Pan-African Trade and Investment Agency and the potential for growth in the automotive sector.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Tunisia's development trajectory toward 2040. It examines the country's current economic stagnation, demographic shifts, and vulnerabilities to climate change, while proposing three alternative policy pathways—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to unlock the nation's human capital and improve governance.

This report section analyzes the health trajectory of Algeria leading up to 2040, highlighting a transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the challenges of an ageing population.

This report section analyzes Algeria's demographic trends and their implications for economic growth and social stability up to 2040. It highlights a declining fertility rate, a shifting dependency ratio, and the challenges of high unemployment and brain drain, while noting that a shrinking youth bulge may reduce the likelihood of social instability.

This briefing by RMI argues that current global oil price benchmarks fail to account for the varying greenhouse gas emissions intensities of different crude oils, creating perverse market incentives. The author proposes incorporating emissions data, specifically via the Oil Climate Index plus Gas (OCI+), into benchmark pricing to reflect the true climate cost of production and encourage operators to reduce emissions.

A Global Energy Monitor briefing on the expansion of gas extraction in Africa, highlighting a shift toward new market entrants and the associated climate and socio-economic risks.