A Balancing Act

The report evaluates Nigeria's strategy to expand LNG production to offset declining oil revenues, warning that such investments risk becoming stranded assets as global demand shifts toward clean energy after 2030. It highlights that while Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest LNG exporter, the sector has not significantly improved domestic energy access or reduced poverty, and continues to be linked to environmental degradation and social conflict in the Niger Delta.

• Nigeria is rapidly expanding its LNG capacity to capitalize on supply shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, designating 2021–2030 as the "Decade of Gas." However, this expansion requires significant infrastructure investment that may become "stranded" as the world transitions to low-carbon energy.
• The LNG industry has failed to provide substantial domestic economic or energy benefits. Nigeria has the highest number of people globally without grid electricity access, and LNG development is often associated with theft, pipeline vandalism, and conflict in operating areas.
• Environmental impacts of the gas sector include persistent gas flaring and significant greenhouse gas emissions. Methane leaks and venting from the oil and gas sector account for approximately one-third of Nigeria's energy sector emissions, with methane making up 94% of those emissions.
• Nigeria faces a high risk of being priced out of the global market after 2030. A weighted average breakeven analysis indicates that gas production costs in Nigeria are higher than in key competitors like Qatar, the United States, and Australia, increasing vulnerability to price drops.
• The attempt to replace declining oil revenues with LNG is precarious due to volatile market pricing and uncertain long-term demand. Carbon Tracker projects a 69% reduction in Nigeria's fossil fuel revenues over the next 20 years if global energy trends shift to a low-carbon pathway.
• Proposed LNG infrastructure involves massive capital expenditure that may exceed projected revenues. Africa's proposed gas infrastructure requires approximately USD 127.4 billion, with Nigeria committing the most at USD 18.2 billion (combined proposed and construction).

APA

Vazi, B., & Bridle, R. (2024). A Balancing Act. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/nigeria-lng-expansion-considerations.pdf

Chicago

Vazi, Bathandwa, and Richard Bridle. A Balancing Act. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/nigeria-lng-expansion-considerations.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Vazi |first1=Bathandwa |last2=Bridle |first2=Richard |title=A Balancing Act |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/nigeria-lng-expansion-considerations.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vazi2024balancing, author = {Vazi, Bathandwa and Bridle, Richard}, title = {{A Balancing Act}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/nigeria-lng-expansion-considerations.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }