A Precarious Pursuit

The report argues that European oil and gas companies are pursuing LNG projects in Africa that expose host countries to significant financial and environmental risks. Due to delayed revenue-sharing structures and a predicted global LNG supply glut by the 2030s, African states face the prospect of stranded assets and debt traps. The document highlights a contradiction between Europe's domestic decarbonization goals and its promotion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa, while noting that high breakeven costs make African producers particularly vulnerable to price competition.

• African host governments face disproportionate financial risk due to revenue-sharing structures that delay significant government earnings until the mid-2030s or 2040s, while European companies reap near-term revenues.
• A global LNG supply glut is predicted by 2030, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a downturn in natural gas demand while global LNG capacity is expected to expand by 40% by 2030.
• African LNG producers in Algeria, Senegal, Nigeria, and Mozambique are more vulnerable to price competition than producers in the US or Qatar because they have higher weighted average breakeven gas prices.
• New LNG projects in Mozambique, Senegal, and Nigeria are at high risk of becoming stranded assets because they may not begin producing until the 2030s, by which time EU demand is expected to have decreased by 30% relative to 2019 levels.
• The pursuit of LNG projects may lock African nations into a 'debt trap,' where governments acquire debt-funded minority stakes in projects and mortgage future revenues for capital through loans from Global North-controlled banks or Chinese national oil companies.
• European fossil fuel companies, specifically Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies, have engaged in a three-phase lobbying strategy to promote African gas exploration, advocate for European imports, and weaken EU climate policies.

APA

Geddes,, B. V. B. (2024). A Precarious Pursuit. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/precarious-pursuit-africa-lng

Chicago

Geddes,, Bathandwa Vazi,Richard Bridle,Anna. A Precarious Pursuit. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/precarious-pursuit-africa-lng.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Geddes, |first1=Bathandwa Vazi,Richard Bridle,Anna |title=A Precarious Pursuit |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=14 November 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/precarious-pursuit-africa-lng |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{geddes2024precarious, author = {Geddes,, Bathandwa Vazi,Richard Bridle,Anna}, title = {{A Precarious Pursuit}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/articles/deep-dive/precarious-pursuit-africa-lng}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }