How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans

The report analyzes the current state of fossil fuel production references in the climate commitments of the 20 largest producers and provides a framework for including production phase-outs in future NDCs and LT-LEDS. It finds that most producers either omit production plans or signal continued extraction, which contradicts 1.5°C-compatible scenarios. The authors propose five key elements for new commitments: background production data, phase-out targets, restrictive policies, just transition planning, and equity-based international cooperation.

• Analysis of the 20 largest fossil fuel producers reveals that one-third of their NDCs do not mention the transition of the fossil fuel sector, and over half have either not submitted an LT-LEDS or omit fossil fuels from it.
• Current climate documents from many major producers signal a continuation or increase in fossil fuel production, which is inconsistent with 1.5°C scenarios where no new projects are required and could lead to warming exceeding 2°C.
• When fossil fuel production is mentioned by producing countries, the discourse typically focuses on economic dependence, production-related emissions mitigation, energy security justifications, or transition risks, rather than the need to wind down production.
• The report identifies five essential elements for third-generation NDCs and LT-LEDS to align with the global stocktake: baseline production data, quantifiable phase-out targets, policies to constrain production (such as exploration moratoria), just transition and diversification measures, and information on equity and international support.
• Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) are identified as a critical tool for countries to report progress on fossil fuel production targets and demonstrate increased ambition, especially for those focusing NDCs on demand-side efforts.

APA

Jones, N., & Parra, P. Y. (2024). How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/fossil-fuel-transition-new-climate-commitments.pdf

Chicago

Jones, Natalie, and Paola Yanguas Parra. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/fossil-fuel-transition-new-climate-commitments.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jones |first1=Natalie |last2=Parra |first2=Paola Yanguas |title=How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/fossil-fuel-transition-new-climate-commitments.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jones2024how, author = {Jones, Natalie and Parra, Paola Yanguas}, title = {{How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-06/fossil-fuel-transition-new-climate-commitments.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }