Search Climate Insights Directory

The report identifies a rapidly growing, cross-platform Salafi ecosystem targeting Gen-Z, characterized by a shift from traditional long-form sermons to gamified and memetic content. It highlights the emergence of 'Islamogram' and the 'akh-right' subculture, which adopts alt-right aesthetics and tactics to wage a digital insurgency against liberal Muslims and democratic values. While much content remains focused on general religious guidance, the research identifies significant 'toxicity'—including sectarianism and misogyny—and notes a concerning convergence between Salafi and far-right online behaviors. The authors argue that traditional classifications of Salafism (quietist, politico, jihadist) are insufficient for this hybrid environment and recommend a move away from purely securitised responses toward a more nuanced, data-driven approach that addresses both the supply of charismatic influencers and the demand driven by legitimate socio-political grievances.

The 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Index reveals a slowing pace of global improvement and widening disparities in women's status. While developed countries, particularly Nordic nations, lead the index, fragile states and regions like South Asia perform poorly. The report highlights how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing inequalities, particularly through job losses in female-dominated sectors and increased risks of intimate partner violence. Additionally, new indices for forcibly displaced women and subnational data for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States demonstrate that national averages often conceal severe internal disparities and the compounding disadvantages of displacement.

China's engagement in Iraq and Syria is primarily driven by economic logic and the Belt and Road Initiative, though it increasingly faces security risks from terrorism and political instability. In Iraq, China has become a top trading partner with a heavy focus on oil, while in Syria, it provides political cover for the Assad regime and explores limited reconstruction opportunities. The document argues that China lacks a unified regional strategy, instead employing a cautious, pragmatic, and piecemeal approach that balances economic opportunism with a traditional policy of non-interference, though the need to protect assets may eventually push Beijing toward more active counter-terrorism efforts.

The report analyzes Sweden's 2017–2018 term on the UN Security Council, examining how a small state can influence the body's outcomes regarding Women, Peace and Security (WPS). It details Sweden's strategic approach—rooted in its feminist foreign policy—to move WPS from a thematic 'add-on' to 'core Council business' by integrating actionable language into regular resolutions, particularly those concerning peacekeeping and political mission mandates. The authors provide a framework for assessing the impact of elected members (E10) through criteria of frequency, clarity, and priority of resolution language, while outlining the tactical maneuvering required to navigate P5 power dynamics and UNSC working methods.

The report finds that energy finance in high-impact countries (HICs) is critically insufficient to meet SDG7 targets. In 2019, tracked electricity finance in HICs fell to USD 32 billion, with residential access funding at only one-third of the required annual investment. Clean cooking investment has stagnated around USD 130 million annually, far below the USD 4.5 billion needed. While there is a positive shift away from fossil fuel electricity generation and an increase in private finance for clean cooking, significant gaps remain, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The report advocates for increased climate resilience in infrastructure, the scaling of decentralized energy solutions, and the integration of clean cooking into national climate policies and NDCs.

A review of snow leopard research from 1904 to 2020 reveals that while publications have increased exponentially since the 1970s, knowledge is concentrated in a few hotspots, covering less than 23% of the species' range. Research is heavily skewed toward ecological surveys of abundance and distribution, with significant gaps in social science, disease ecology, and empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of conservation interventions.

The guide addresses the energy access gaps in South Asia, noting that the pandemic threatens to reverse development progress and increase extreme poverty. It emphasizes the need for improved electricity and clean cooking access across the region, with the exception of Bhutan and the Maldives, to ensure a sustainable recovery.

The Global Resilience Partnership (GRP), in collaboration with the UNDP and GEF, is seeking Expressions of Interest from organizations managing innovative finance mechanisms in fragile and conflict-prone regions. The initiative aims to support private sector solutions that address the 'triple threat' of COVID-19, climate change-induced extreme weather, and geopolitical instability. Selected organizations will receive grants, technical assistance from a multidisciplinary mentoring facility, and networking opportunities to improve the scale and effectiveness of their funds. Eligible mechanisms must be based in specific Least Developed Countries (LDCs), demonstrate a sustainable revenue model, and focus on the intersection of climate adaptation, food and water security, and disaster risk reduction.

The document argues that women's inclusion in peace processes increases the likelihood of reaching and sustaining agreements, though global participation rates remain low. It identifies three prerequisites for substantive representation: a specific agenda, access to the process, and advocacy by powerful actors. The briefing details various modes of inclusion, noting that independent women-only delegations are more effective than observer status, and outlines systemic barriers including cultural norms, economic constraints, and higher participation criteria imposed by mediators.

The paper advocates for a shift from public-private partnerships (PPPs) to an 'infrastructure business' model based on stewardship. It suggests that PPPs lack the flexibility needed for a changing world, citing the efficiency of PAYGO solar systems over traditional grids. To ensure these businesses align with community needs, the author proposes four management tools: requiring periodic master plans, using impact management frameworks like the Impact Management Project (IMP), ensuring independence in decision-making, and enhancing accountability through open data and transparency initiatives such as CoST and GRESB.

The Afghanistan Rural Energy Market Transformation Initiative aims to reduce reliance on diesel and kerosene in rural areas by transitioning to renewable energy mini-grids. The project focuses on a three-phased approach, starting with a pilot phase that includes the construction of three solar mini-grids with a combined capacity of 2.6 MW in Kandahar, Parwan, and Khost. To ensure long-term sustainability and private sector engagement, the initiative will develop a mini-grid policy, technical standards, and a financial de-risking framework, including a viability gap funding mechanism. It also establishes a 'Rural Electrification Department' under the national utility DABS and provides capacity building for Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs). The project expects to benefit 49,000 people and reduce emissions by 173,082 tCO2eq over 25 years.

The briefing analyzes the intersection of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, deteriorating governance, and nuclear-armed geopolitical tensions in South Asia. It argues that these converging risks create non-linear dynamics that could lead to a systemic collapse or 'regime shift,' posing significant spillover risks to the global international system.

The report finds that 1.61 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries in 2019, with 426 million residing in specific conflict zones (within 50 km of fighting). Africa has the highest absolute number of affected children, while the Middle East has the highest proportional share. The number of children in conflict zones has generally increased since the 1990s, with millions exposed to continuous conflict throughout their childhood.

The MIGNEX Handbook Chapter 7 outlines the methodology for a large-scale survey of 12,500 young adults (aged 18-39) across 25 research areas in ten countries. It details a three-stage probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) cluster sampling strategy using satellite imagery and random walks to ensure representativeness. The guide specifies the use of Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) via SurveyCTO software to improve data quality and efficiency. It establishes rigorous protocols for research ethics, including oral informed consent, and defines a multi-layered quality assurance framework involving enumerators, fieldwork supervisors, and data managers. The document also provides a detailed survey instrument covering themes such as migration aspirations, livelihoods, health, and governance.

The African Union (AU) and Africa CDC reacted quickly to COVID-19, coordinating health responses and establishing an anti-COVID-19 fund. However, the pandemic has exacerbated security threats in West and Central Africa, where fighting against terrorism and internal conflicts continues despite global ceasefire calls. In the Horn of Africa, the virus has disrupted peace processes and created new instabilities, including the politicisation of response measures and the release of thousands of inmates. The report also highlights the extreme vulnerability of Africa's 25.2 million refugees and internally displaced persons, warning that border closures may increase irregular migration and transmission risks.

The document argues that the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process is uniquely suited to support peacebuilding in fragile states because its long-term, holistic, and participatory nature aligns with the timelines and goals of conflict recovery. It highlights that climate risks and conflict often share drivers, such as poverty and weak governance, and that failure to adapt can exacerbate resource competition. The briefing provides examples of countries like Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Palestine that have integrated conflict dynamics into their NAPs, while noting ongoing challenges such as the lack of climate data in conflict zones and the exclusion of refugees from planning processes.

The document argues that for fragile states, climate change and conflict often share drivers and mutually reinforce each other, making the integration of adaptation planning and peacebuilding essential. It highlights how the NAP process, through its long-term, holistic, and participatory nature, can serve as a platform for conflict prevention and trust-building. The text provides examples from countries like Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Palestine where climate adaptation is used to mitigate resource-based conflicts or where active conflict severely hinders adaptation capacity. It concludes by identifying key challenges, including the need for transboundary planning and the inclusion of marginalized populations like refugees.

The document examines the impact of COVID-19-related food export restrictions on vulnerable importing nations. It identifies high-risk areas in Central Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, noting that many affected countries already suffer from high undernourishment and calorie production deficits. The authors argue that because global food stocks remain plentiful, countries should refrain from banning staple food exports to prevent hunger and potential famines.

The research examines how the effect of anomalous rainfall (excess and scarce) on violent, state-based conflict varies based on societal vulnerability factors. Using a causal forest model on global grid-cell data, the author finds that while rainfall variability generally has a small effect on conflict, this effect is context-specific. Scarce rainfall is more likely to increase conflict risk in communities with high agricultural employment and poor governance (low SHDI and GDP). Excess rainfall's effect is more complex, showing higher risk in areas with high population density, low globalization, low democracy, and low GDP, but contrary to expectations, it showed smaller effects in areas with high political exclusion or greater distance to the capital.

The report examines the technical, legal, and strategic landscape of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS), arguing that current technology is often ineffective and hindered by outdated legal frameworks. It assesses specific risks to Norwegian infrastructure, such as airports and oil platforms, and explores how Norway can leverage EU and NATO initiatives to enhance its capabilities while avoiding the over-securitization of civilian airspace.