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NEW VISIONS TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUEL REVENUES IN ANGOLA, SENEGAL, AND TANZANIA
The report argues that a just energy transition in Africa requires the concurrent development of non-fossil fuel revenue sources and employment to avoid destabilising public finances. Focusing on Angola, Senegal, and Tanzania, it identifies alternative sectors such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, mining of critical minerals, and tourism. It recommends the adoption of Just Transition Investment Plans (JTIPs), the implementation of 'sunset policies' to end new fossil fuel licensing, and the use of fossil revenues as a temporary financing mechanism for green industrialisation. The report specifically advocates for strict conditions on any remaining gas use, including a ban on export-oriented LNG and a requirement to ringfence 50% of revenues for renewable energy.
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Document type: Report
NIGERIA’S FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCY AND THE PATH TO ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION
Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.
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Document type: Report
TRANSITIONING FROM FOSSIL FUELS IN AFRICA
The report argues that reliance on fossil fuels creates unstable government revenues, locks countries into outdated infrastructure, and exposes them to stranded asset risks as global energy systems shift. It categorizes African economies into export-dominant, import-dependent, and dual-role types, noting that no single transition pathway fits all. To mitigate these risks, the document advocates for diversification into manufacturing, agro-processing, digital services, and the domestic processing of transition minerals. It outlines a phased transition timeline from 2026 to beyond 2045, emphasizing that domestic governance reforms must be supported by international cooperation to reduce the 'African premium' on borrowing costs and improve technology access.
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Document type: Report
Country profile – Chile
Chile's mining sector, dominated by copper and lithium, contributes up to 14% of the national GDP and 58% of total exports. While the country is a global leader in copper production via the state-owned Codelco, it faces significant environmental challenges, particularly extreme water scarcity in the Antofagasta region where mining accounts for 50%–65% of regional water withdrawals. The sector is increasingly relying on desalination to meet demand. Socially, women's participation in the mining workforce remains low at 10%. Economically, Chile is pursuing a National Lithium Strategy to increase domestic value addition and public partnerships, while maintaining strong export ties, particularly with China.
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Document type: Report
Country profile – Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo's economy is heavily reliant on mining, particularly copper and cobalt, which generate over 90% of mining revenues. While the country possesses vast hydropower potential, electricity access remains limited to 19% of the population. The sector is characterized by a mix of large-scale mining and significant artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), the latter of which is linked to conflict minerals (3TG) in the east. Infrastructure development is currently focused on strategic corridors like the Lobito Corridor and the TAZARA rehabilitation to improve export logistics.
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Document type: Report
Roadmap for Implementing Education Adaptation Activities Under Somalia’s National Adaptation Plan (2026–2030)
The roadmap operationalizes Somalia's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for the education sector from 2026 to 2030. It organizes adaptation efforts into five strategic pillars: curriculum integration, resilient infrastructure, education in emergencies, community awareness, and local actor training. The framework emphasizes gender equity, social inclusion (GESI), and conflict sensitivity to protect vulnerable groups such as IDPs and pastoralists. Implementation is led by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Higher Education (MoECHE) and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC), coordinated through a strengthened Climate Change and Education Taskforce. The estimated investment required for these activities is USD 80 million.
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Document type: Report
FAQs: South Africa's Wholesale Electricity Market
The South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) is a proposed short-term trading platform for bulk electricity, expected to commence at the end of 2026. Governed by the Market Code and Rules, it allows power producers and large buyers to trade electricity one day ahead or in real-time. While intended to increase competition and transparency, concerns are raised regarding the conflict of interest since the Market Operator is housed within the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), a subsidiary of Eskom. The document highlights that the market's design could either facilitate a transition to affordable renewable energy or entrench fossil fuel generation and financial risks for municipalities.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Electricity transmission in Colombia: overview 2025
The report examines the state of Colombia's electricity transmission infrastructure in 2025, highlighting a critical gap between the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation and the slow deployment of the transmission grid. It details the regulatory structure of the National Interconnected System (SIN), the processes for capacity allocation, and the systemic delays in project execution caused by socio-environmental and licensing hurdles. The document warns that the system is approaching operational limits, with significant short-circuit capacity exhaustion and regional grid strain, particularly in the Caribbean area. It emphasizes the need to implement a strategic portfolio of 98 projects to ensure the energy transition and meet long-term demand projections.
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Document type: Report
Hoja de Ruta desde América Latina y el Caribe para la transición energética justa
This roadmap, developed by civil society organizations, provides a strategic framework for Latin America and the Caribbean to transition away from fossil fuels while ensuring climate justice and economic diversification. It categorizes countries by their fossil fuel production profiles—booming, mature, or importers—and sets specific milestones for the supply, demand, and electricity sectors. The document emphasizes the need to move beyond a primary-export economic model, proposing the development of regional value chains, labor reconversion, and a legal shift toward recognizing the nature as a subject of rights. It also calls for a reform of international climate finance to avoid further indebtedness and the implementation of binding participatory governance based on human and environmental rights.
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Document type: Report
Roadmap from Latin America and the Caribbean for a Just Energy Transition
The roadmap advocates for a phased exit from fossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing a transition that integrates climate justice, economic diversification, and the recognition of nature's rights. It categorizes countries by their hydrocarbon profile—booming production, mature production, or importing with refining capacity—to tailor phase-out strategies. Key goals include achieving a net-zero electricity system by 2050, decarbonizing industrial and transport demand, and reforming financial systems to reduce debt-based climate finance. The document also calls for the criminalization of ecocide and the exclusion of climate policies from investor-state arbitration mechanisms.
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Document type: Report
Orderly reform of fossil fuel subsidies in Latin America: Case studies from Brazil and Colombia
The document analyzes fossil fuel subsidies in Brazil and Colombia, advocating for the creation of national inventories and a prioritized reform roadmap. It highlights the inefficiency of certain production subsidies, such as Brazil's REPETRO, and suggests redirecting savings toward renewable energy and social equity. Using regional examples, it warns against abrupt reforms, as seen in Bolivia, and recommends progressive, well-communicated strategies similar to those in Ecuador.
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Document type: Executive summary
Electric Advantage: The Business Case for an Electrified Economy
The report presents a business case for transitioning to an electrified economy, asserting that electricity is becoming the foundation for global economic growth. It highlights that electrification is the most efficient route to decarbonization, capable of displacing approximately 60% of global fossil fuel use. The document outlines the benefits of electrification in terms of cost predictability, energy security, and public health, while identifying significant barriers such as distorted market incentives and a global skills gap. It proposes ten policy principles for governments to unlock business investment and introduces the 'Electric Advantage' program to coordinate business leadership in modernizing policy and scaling deployment.
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Document type: Report
TOWARDS NATURE POSITIVE FOR THE OCEAN
The report outlines how the port sector can transition from causing ocean degradation to enabling regeneration using the AR3T (Avoid, Reduce, Restore and Regenerate, Transform) framework. It identifies key pressures ports exert on marine ecosystems—such as seabed disturbance, pollution, and invasive species—and provides specific, evidence-based actions across the port lifecycle, from siting and design to operations and decommissioning. The document emphasizes the importance of nature-inclusive design, ecosystem-based marine spatial planning, and the integration of natural capital into financial accounting to achieve a Sustainable Blue Economy.
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Document type: Report
Morocco Development Futures
The report projects Morocco's GDP to reach US$253.4 billion by 2043 on its current path, with potential to reach US$384 billion in a combined scenario. While the country benefits from a demographic window of opportunity and a shift toward high-value manufacturing, it faces significant challenges including severe water stress, heavy energy import dependence, and a large informal economy. Key growth drivers identified include the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), governance reforms, and strategic investments in education and infrastructure.
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Document type: Report
Kenya
The report analyzes Kenya's development path toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' with eight ambitious sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings highlight that while Kenya has a resilient economy and leads Africa in geothermal energy, it faces significant hurdles in corruption, infrastructure, and public debt. The analysis suggests that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and improvements in governance would have the most substantial positive impacts on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. A combined approach of all scenarios could increase GDP by 123.1% over the current path and drastically reduce carbon emissions by transitioning fully to renewables.
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Document type: Report
Gambia Development Futures
The report projects that The Gambia's population will grow to 4.4 million by 2043, with urbanisation reaching 72.1%. While GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$4,950 on the Current Path, the report highlights significant vulnerabilities in food security and a high youth unemployment rate of approximately 35%. Sectoral scenarios suggest that trade liberalisation via AfCFTA and agricultural improvements offer the highest potential for economic growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could nearly double the economy to US$18.5 billion, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions reaching 1.7 million tons.
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Document type: Report
Lesotho Development Futures
The report analyzes Lesotho's development prospects up to 2043. Under the Current Path, GDP is projected to grow to US$7.6 billion, but poverty and food insecurity remain endemic. The report evaluates 11 sectoral scenarios, finding that the 'Free Trade' scenario offers the highest per capita income boost, while the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario could raise GDP per capita to US$7,375 and significantly reduce poverty to 27.7%. Energy access is identified as a critical constraint, with the 'Leapfrogging' and 'Infrastructure' scenarios proposing significant increases in electricity access through renewables and grid investment.
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Document type: Report
Liberia Development Futures
The report projects that Liberia's population will grow to 8.2 million by 2043, with GDP more than tripling to US$10.8 billion under the Current Path. While extreme poverty is expected to decline from 62.9% in 2019 to 31.9% by 2043, the absolute number of poor people will increase due to population growth. The analysis highlights that agricultural improvements, financial flows, and free trade offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could potentially lift an additional 2.2 million people out of poverty and double the economy's size to US$21.6 billion, albeit at the cost of higher carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Eritrea Development Futures
The report projects that Eritrea's economy will grow from US$2.4 billion in 2019 to US$10.1 billion by 2043 under a Current Path scenario, with extreme poverty falling to 13%. It evaluates 11 sectoral interventions—including stability, agriculture, and leapfrogging—finding that trade liberalization and digital/energy infrastructure have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita. A combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests GDP could reach US$20.4 billion by 2043, though this would increase carbon emissions to 1.5 million tons.
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Document type: Report
Madagascar: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report argues that Madagascar's current economic growth prospects are insufficient for inclusive development due to structural constraints. It recommends strengthening democratic institutions, improving macroeconomic governance through reduced tax exemptions, and investing in agriculture and human capital. To ensure long-term sustainability, the document suggests diversifying into eco-tourism, leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), and scaling up renewable energy investments, specifically solar and hydro, to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
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Document type: Report