Gambia Development Futures

The report projects that The Gambia's population will grow to 4.4 million by 2043, with urbanisation reaching 72.1%. While GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$4,950 on the Current Path, the report highlights significant vulnerabilities in food security and a high youth unemployment rate of approximately 35%. Sectoral scenarios suggest that trade liberalisation via AfCFTA and agricultural improvements offer the highest potential for economic growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could nearly double the economy to US$18.5 billion, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions reaching 1.7 million tons.

• On the Current Path, The Gambia's population is projected to grow from 2.4 million in 2019 to 4.4 million by 2043, with urbanisation increasing to 72.1% of the population.
• The Gambian economy is characterised by a significant youth bulge, with 50.3% of the adult population aged 15-29 in 2019, contributing to a youth unemployment rate of around 35%.
• The Current Path forecast predicts GDP will reach US$10 billion and GDP per capita will rise to US$4,950 by 2043, with the service sector contributing 66.4% of GDP.
• The Gambia faces growing food security concerns; by 2043, agricultural demand is projected to outstrip domestic production by 1.8 million metric tons on the Current Path.
• Energy production is currently dominated by gas (87.5% in 2019), but this is expected to decline to 52% by 2043, while other renewables (solar and wind) are projected to constitute 40% of total energy production.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase from 220,000 tons in 2019 to 1 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, with the Free Trade scenario causing the highest increase at 1.38 million tons.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral improvements, could increase GDP to US$18.5 billion and raise GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, extreme poverty (below US$1.90/day) would be significantly reduced to just 6,000 people, or 0.15% of the population, by 2043.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Gambia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Gambia Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Gambia Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026gambia, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Gambia Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }