ISS African Futures

This report provides a detailed development forecast for The Gambia up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' trajectory with various sectoral improvement scenarios and a combined 'Agenda 2063' scenario. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, energy transitions, and the potential impacts of interventions in stability, health, education, and trade.

• Under the Current Path forecast, The Gambia's population is expected to grow from 2.4 million in 2019 to 4.4 million by 2043, with urbanisation increasing significantly so that 72.1% of the population resides in urban areas by 2043.
• The Current Path forecast projects GDP to reach US$10 billion and GDP per capita to increase to US$4,950 by 2043. The economy is expected to undergo structural transformation, with the manufacturing sector projected to overtake agriculture as the second largest contributor to GDP by 2032.
• Extreme poverty (defined as living below US$1.90 per day) is projected to decline from 10.8% (250,000 people) in 2019 to 2.1% (90,000 people) by 2043 on the Current Path, although the country is expected to miss the SDG Goal 1 target of eliminating extreme poverty by 2030.
• The Gambia faces significant food security concerns; while crop yields are projected to rise from 1.2 metric tons per hectare in 2019 to 1.6 in 2043 on the Current Path, the gap between demand and domestic production is expected to widen to 1.8 million metric tons by 2043.
• Energy production is currently dominated by gas (87.5% in 2019), but this is projected to decline to 52% by 2043, while other renewable energies (solar and wind) are expected to constitute 40% of total production by 2043.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, based on the implementation of the AfCFTA, is projected to have the highest positive impact on GDP per capita (reaching US$5,303 by 2043) but also the greatest negative impact on the environment, resulting in 1.38 million tons of carbon emissions by 2043.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on technology and energy access, projecting that electricity access would reach 90.9% of the population by 2043, compared to 80.9% on the Current Path.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, projects a significant economic boost with GDP reaching US$18.5 billion and GDP per capita rising to US$7,823 by 2043, while reducing extreme poverty to just 6,000 people (0.15% of the population).
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase across all scenarios, rising from 220,000 tons in 2019 to 1 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, and reaching 1.7 million tons under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=GM&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }