Search Climate Insights Directory

The report projects that São Tomé and Príncipe will see population growth to 351,000 and a GDP per capita increase to US$4,910 by 2043 under its Current Path. While the nation remains a low carbon emitter, it faces systemic poverty and food insecurity. The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and infrastructure, could significantly boost GDP per capita to US$7,082 and reduce the poverty rate to 39.8%, though this growth would increase carbon emissions to 130,000 tons.

The report projects that Seychelles' GDP per capita will rise to US$33,409 by 2043 under the Current Path, though poverty remains high at 49.7%. While the economy is dominated by services and tourism, it faces food insecurity and an ageing population. Sectoral interventions in free trade and manufacturing offer the highest potential for GDP growth, while a 'Leapfrogging' scenario is the only one to reduce carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 and reduce extreme poverty to 40.44%, albeit with a rise in carbon emissions to 241,380 tons.

The document analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for São Tomé and Príncipe, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to project development outcomes by 2043. The scenario predicts a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,082 and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty, lifting an additional 88,000 people above the poverty line compared to the Current Path. While the service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors are identified as the primary GDP contributors, the report notes that this economic growth would lead to a 333.3% increase in carbon emissions, rising from 30,000 tons in 2019 to 130,000 tons by 2043, necessitating an accelerated energy transition.

This fact sheet from the Environmental and Energy Study Institute describes the role of cobalt as a critical mineral for the clean energy transition, detailing its applications in lithium-ion batteries, global distribution of reserves and production, and the significant human rights and environmental impacts associated with its extraction, particularly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The 2026 Hormuz crisis, triggered by a US-Israel war with Iran, is projected to increase Türkiye's energy import bill by $14 billion by the end of 2026. This increase is driven by a 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices and a 45% rise in European gas prices. Türkiye's high import dependence—95% for natural gas, 83% for crude oil, and 60% for coal—makes its economy structurally vulnerable to global price shocks. Road transport is the largest contributor to the energy bill, accounting for nearly one-third of the total in 2025. The report suggests that transitioning to electric vehicles and heat pumps could permanently lower import costs, noting that 1 million electric cars could save $900 million annually and a 10% transition to heat pumps in homes could save $1 billion annually.

The report analyzes Djibouti's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with sectoral and combined scenarios. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it falls short of Vision 2035 targets. A 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms in governance, finance, and trade could accelerate GDP growth to 8.9% and triple per capita income. The analysis emphasizes that Djibouti's primary constraints are not infrastructure gaps, but rather the efficiency and inclusiveness of its growth model, which remains heavily dependent on port logistics and external debt.

The report analyzes Ghana's socio-economic landscape, projecting its development to 2043. It highlights a strong growth potential driven by natural resources but warns of persistent poverty, high public debt, and corruption. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with several targeted scenarios—including Governance, Manufacturing, and AfCFTA—demonstrating that integrated policy interventions in education, health, and industrialization could significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty. It also addresses critical challenges such as the 'galamsey' illegal mining crisis affecting water and forests, and the need for a transition toward renewable energy to mitigate rising carbon emissions.

The report analyses Africa's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it fails to meet Agenda 2063 targets, leaving 19.1% of the population in extreme poverty. The Combined scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms in governance, trade (AfCFTA), education, and infrastructure could raise GDP (MER) to US$8.87 trillion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040, and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%. Key findings highlight the critical role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance as the most transformative levers for income growth and poverty reduction. The report also details a significant energy gap, where demand is projected to outpace production by 2043 despite massive solar potential, and a health transition marked by a 'double burden' of persisting communicable diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases.

The report posits that Asia is leading a 'Great Convergence' with the West by leveraging its position as the world's manufacturing hub to drive an electric energy transition. It highlights that Asia has driven three quarters of global electricity growth since 2000 and now produces the majority of the world's solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. The document argues that while a lack of oil and gas was previously a weakness, it has become a strategic advantage in an era where energy is defined by technology rather than commodities. This transition is further accelerated by 'fossil shocks,' including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the 2022 energy crisis, which push the region toward energy security through electrotechnology.

The report analyzes the 'Electric Asia' transition, arguing that Asian economies are shifting from a historical correlation between GDP growth and fossil fuel demand toward a model where growth is driven by electricity demand and domestic renewable energy. It highlights the role of China in exporting electrification technologies and the potential for other Asian nations to reduce import dependency by deploying solar and wind power, particularly as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar-plus-storage becomes competitive with LNG.

Colombia is planning LNG import capacity that could exceed double its projected 2030 gas demand, potentially creating stranded assets and hindering its energy transition. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security risks from El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the report argues that current and planned projects—such as the SPEC LNG expansion and the Puerto Bahía or Coveñas terminals—could satisfy demand without the need for the full suite of nine planned initiatives. The document emphasizes that prioritizing flexible, temporary LNG capacity while shifting investment toward renewables and energy efficiency would align with Colombia's international climate leadership and its roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence by 90% by 2050.

Colombia is planning at least nine major LNG import terminal projects and expansions between 2026 and 2030, which would create a capacity of approximately 2,500 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). This figure is more than double the government's projected gas demand of 1,000 MMcf/d for 2030. The report warns that such an overbuild could lead to stranded assets, lock the country into long-term fossil fuel contracts, and divert resources from renewables and energy efficiency. While the country faces a domestic gas deficit and energy security challenges exacerbated by El Niño and geopolitical tensions, the document suggests that near-term needs could be met without overbuilding infrastructure, aligning instead with a roadmap to reduce fossil fuel dependence and emissions by 90% by 2050.

Europe is facing a significant demographic shift characterized by declining working-age populations and increasing old-age dependency, which is expected to create tighter labour markets and labour shortages by 2050. While this trend may stunt GDP growth and complicate investment, it provides an opportunity for trade unions to increase worker bargaining power and revitalize their membership, particularly by organizing the expanding care sector.

The paper examines the potential for Indigenous-led electricity transmission in Canada, advocating for a transition from passive equity stakes to full project leadership. It highlights the economic benefits of regulated rate-of-return models for community revenue and proposes a financing structure using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) via the First Nations Finance Authority (FNFA) and the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation (CILGC) to overcome structural barriers like the Indian Act.

The document examines the gap between corporate ESG reporting and the reality of Indigenous governance in Canada's energy transition. It finds that while many companies disclose Indigenous relations, they rarely integrate Indigenous rights into formal risk assessments or acknowledge the necessity of free, prior and informed consent (FPIC). Through dialogues with over 50 Indigenous leaders and an analysis of S&P/TSX companies, the study concludes that corporate narratives often prioritize regulatory compliance and symbolic transparency over the recognition of inherent Indigenous jurisdiction.

The document examines the gap between corporate sustainability reporting and the jurisdictional realities of Indigenous Peoples in Canada's energy transition. Through an analysis of S&P/TSX Composite Index companies and dialogues with over 50 Indigenous leaders, it finds that disclosures frequently prioritize narrative-based engagement and regulatory compliance over the recognition of inherent rights and Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC). The study concludes that current voluntary frameworks provide an incomplete picture of project risks and governance, suggesting the need for a reporting standard authored by Indigenous rightsholders to ensure credible climate accountability.

The paper advocates for Indigenous-led electricity transmission projects in Canada, moving beyond passive equity stakes to active project leadership. It highlights the economic potential of a national grid, the role of Indigenous ownership in reducing diesel dependency and funding community services, and proposes a financing model using the First Nations Financial Management Board (FNFMB) and the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation (CILGC) to overcome capital barriers.

An analysis of 76 election leaflets and several party manifestos from the 2026 local and devolved elections in the UK reveals that explicit mentions of 'climate' were very low, particularly in local leaflets. While manifestos from parties like the SNP and Scottish Greens used climate terminology more frequently, most political communication shifted toward 'climate-adjacent' issues. These include energy affordability, fairness framings regarding the energy transition, and hyper-local concerns such as flooding, transport, and the preservation of green spaces. The report notes a breakdown in cross-party consensus on net zero, evidenced by its absence in the Welsh Conservatives' manifesto and anti-renewable messaging from Reform UK.

The report examines the evolution of policy frameworks, taxonomies, and financial instruments across major Asian economies, categorizing them into international financial hubs, industrialized powerhouses, and rapidly developing economies to analyze their complementary roles in the regional transition finance landscape.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has triggered a global energy crisis, causing Brent crude to reach USD 138/barrel and spiking natural gas prices, particularly in Asia. This disruption has led to increased food and fertiliser prices, slowed global GDP growth, and strained national budgets through increased fossil fuel subsidies. In response, 26 countries and regions have implemented clean energy measures, with Asia leading in both vulnerability to supply shocks and the acceleration of clean technology investments and deployments.