SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

The document analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario for São Tomé and Príncipe, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to project development outcomes by 2043. The scenario predicts a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,082 and a substantial reduction in extreme poverty, lifting an additional 88,000 people above the poverty line compared to the Current Path. While the service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors are identified as the primary GDP contributors, the report notes that this economic growth would lead to a 333.3% increase in carbon emissions, rising from 30,000 tons in 2019 to 130,000 tons by 2043, necessitating an accelerated energy transition.

• The Free Trade scenario is projected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita in São Tomé and Príncipe by 2043, adding US$701 over the Current Path forecast, followed by Manufacturing/Transfers (US$309) and Leapfrogging (US$280). Conversely, Health/WaSH and Financial Flows scenarios are expected to have the least impact.
• Under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, GDP per capita in São Tomé and Príncipe is estimated to reach US$7,082 by 2043, which is US$2,172 higher than the Current Path projection. Despite this growth, this figure remains below the projected 2043 average of US$9,142 for lower middle-income countries in Africa.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty by 2043, with 130,000 people (39.8% of the population) living below the US$3.20 poverty line. This represents a 22.2 percentage point decrease in poverty and lifts 88,000 more people out of extreme poverty than the Current Path forecast.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is expected to result in environmental degradation, with total carbon emissions projected to rise from 30,000 tons in 2019 to 130,000 tons by 2043, a 333.3% increase. This is higher than the 100,000 tons estimated in the Current Path forecast.
• By 2043, the service, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors are projected to be the largest contributors to GDP. The service sector is expected to add US$490 million (1.4 percentage points of GDP) and agriculture US$40 million (0.6 percentage points of GDP) more than the Current Path, while manufacturing is projected to contribute US$70 million more but see its overall GDP contribution rate decline by 0.03 percentage points.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026tom, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }