SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for São Tomé and Príncipe, integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social outcomes by 2043. The analysis compares this integrated approach against a 'Current Path' forecast, highlighting significant gains in GDP and poverty reduction, alongside an increase in carbon emissions.

• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios and a 'synergistic effect', is projected to increase São Tomé and Príncipe's GDP per capita to US$7,082 by 2043. This represents an increase of US$2,322 compared to the Current Path forecast, although it remains below the projected average of US$9,142 for lower middle-income countries in Africa for the same year.
• Among the sectoral components of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, Free Trade is expected to have the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, adding US$701 over the Current Path. Manufacturing/Transfers and Leapfrogging follow with contributions of US$309 and US$280, respectively, while Health/WaSH and Financial Flows are projected to have the least impact.
• The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly reduce poverty by 2043, with an additional 88,000 people lifted out of extreme poverty compared to the Current Path. By 2043, approximately 130,000 people (39.8% of the population) would live below the US$3.20 poverty line, a 22.2 percentage point decrease from the Current Path forecast.
• By 2043, the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario projects a total GDP (MER) of US$1.5 billion, a 335% increase from 2019 and 66.7% higher than the Current Path estimate of US$900 million. The service sector is expected to be the largest contributor, adding US$490 million to GDP (1.4 percentage points more than the Current Path), followed by manufacturing and agriculture.
• Economic growth under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is associated with increased environmental degradation. Total carbon emissions are projected to rise from 30,000 tons in 2019 to 130,000 tons by 2043 (a 333.3% increase), which is higher than the 100,000 tons estimated in the Current Path forecast.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026tom, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{SÃO TOMÉ AND PRÍNCIPE DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=ST&topic=combined-agenda-2063}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }