Ghana

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Ghana's socio-economic trajectory through 2043, evaluating its current path and various development scenarios. It examines the country's transition from a commodity-export dependent economy to potential industrialization, while highlighting critical challenges in governance, infrastructure, and public health.

• Ghana's GDP grew from US$14.4 billion in 1990 to US$76.1 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 5.1%. On the 'Current Path', GDP is projected to more than double to US$235.4 billion by 2043.
• The informal sector is a critical economic component, accounting for approximately 28.9% of GDP in 2023 and employing between 48.9% and 80% of the workforce depending on the source. It is projected to decline to 25.1% of GDP by 2043 on the Current Path.
• Poverty remains a significant challenge; in 2023, 41.8% of the population (14.3 million people) lived below the US$3.65 poverty line. The 'Combined scenario' suggests that by 2043, extreme poverty could be reduced to 6.3% of the population (2.9 million people).
• Ghana has undergone an epidemiological transition where non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now outweigh communicable diseases as the primary cause of death. By 2043, NCDs are projected to cause 188,000 deaths, representing 64.8% of all deaths.
• Illegal mining, known as 'galamsey', is causing severe environmental and public health crises, including the destruction of over 100,000 acres of cocoa in the Mankurom community and the pollution of major rivers such as the Pra, Ankobra, Oti, Offin, and Birim.
• The education system faces quality and infrastructure issues, with approximately 5,400 schools still operating 'under trees'. While primary enrollment is high, the completion rate for upper-secondary education was only 36.6% in 2023.
• Ghana's energy sector is characterized by high access rates (84.9% in 2023) but unstable supply, leading to 'Dumsor' (load shedding). The sector is burdened by significant debt to independent power producers, including a US$259 million debt owed by the Electricity Company of Ghana to Sunon Asogli power.
• Governance is a key driver for development; the 'Governance scenario' is identified as having the greatest potential impact on GDP per capita by 2043, potentially increasing it by US$768 (8.6%) over the Current Path.
• Corruption is described as an 'endemic canker', with the Ghana Integrity Initiative estimating annual losses of up to US$3 billion. Ghana ranked 70th on the 2023 Corruption Perception Index with a score of 43.
• The 'Combined scenario' projects a significant economic expansion, with GDP rising to US$365 billion and GDP per capita increasing to US$12,720 by 2043, though this growth would result in carbon emissions rising to 16 million tons.
• Ghana's trade is heavily dependent on raw material exports (gold, crude petroleum, cocoa) and processed imports, leading to a chronic trade deficit, which was 1.2% of GDP in 2023.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Ghana. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Ghana. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Ghana |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026ghana, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Ghana}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }