Ghana

The report analyzes Ghana's socio-economic landscape, projecting its development to 2043. It highlights a strong growth potential driven by natural resources but warns of persistent poverty, high public debt, and corruption. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with several targeted scenarios—including Governance, Manufacturing, and AfCFTA—demonstrating that integrated policy interventions in education, health, and industrialization could significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty. It also addresses critical challenges such as the 'galamsey' illegal mining crisis affecting water and forests, and the need for a transition toward renewable energy to mitigate rising carbon emissions.

• Ghana's GDP is projected to grow from US$76.1 billion in 2023 to US$235.4 billion by 2043 on the Current Path, with GDP per capita rising to US$8,960.
• The 'Governance scenario' is identified as having the most significant positive impact on GDP per capita by 2043, potentially increasing it by US$768 (8.6%) over the Current Path.
• Industrialization through the 'Manufacturing scenario' offers the highest potential for poverty reduction, capable of lifting an additional 1.9 million people out of extreme poverty.
• Illegal mining, known as 'galamsey', is causing severe environmental and public health crises, including the destruction of over 100,000 acres of cocoa in the Mankurom community and the pollution of major rivers like the Pra and Birim.
• Ghana's energy sector faces a risk of collapse due to heavy indebtedness to independent power producers and inefficiencies in the Electricity Company of Ghana, which recorded a loss of GHC10.2 billion in 2022.
• The report projects a transition in energy production where other renewable energy sources will become dominant by 2043, constituting 54.2% of total production on the Current Path and 66% in the Combined scenario.
• Despite democratic stability in the Fourth Republic, public satisfaction with democracy declined from 74% in 2012 to 51% in 2024, with support for military rule increasing to 32%.
• Ghana's carbon emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise from 7 million tons in 2023 to 14 million tons by 2043 on the Current Path, increasing to 16 million tons in the Combined scenario.
• The 'Combined scenario' suggests that an integrated development push could increase Ghana's GDP to US$365 billion and raise GDP per capita to US$12,720 by 2043.
• The education system suffers from a 'funnel' effect where high primary enrollment does not translate to tertiary completion; only 11% of the relevant age group graduated with at least a first degree in 2023.

APA

Aikins, E. R. (2026). Ghana. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/

Chicago

Aikins, Enoch Randy. Ghana. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aikins |first1=Enoch Randy |title=Ghana |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 June 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aikins2026ghana, author = {Aikins, Enoch Randy}, title = {{Ghana}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/countries/ghana/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }