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India’s Energy Transition: The cost of meeting air pollution standards in the coal-fired electricity sector
The document estimates that installing pollution-control technology for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) in India's coal fleet requires between INR 73,176 crore and INR 86,135 crore. This investment is expected to increase electricity tariffs by 9% to 21%, with the highest impact on 500 MW units. The report highlights significant barriers to meeting the December 2022 compliance deadline, including high upfront costs, financial stress among distribution companies, and a lack of technical experience. It recommends that costs be passed to consumers to reflect externalities, that the poorest be protected via targeted subsidies, and that continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) data be made public to ensure transparency.
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Document type: Briefing
Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal
The SAVi evaluation of the Dakar BRT project reveals that while the project is not financially viable under conventional accounting—showing negative Net Present Value (NPV) across most scenarios—it generates substantial positive externalities. These include significant avoided transport costs, time savings, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents. When these externalities are integrated into the financial analysis, the project's Internal Rate of Return (IRR) increases from 2.17% to 37.69% in the default demand scenario, demonstrating strong socio-economic profitability despite operational financial losses.
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Document type: Report
Emission Omissions: Carbon accounting gaps in the built environment
The report argues that current LCAs for building materials often lack transparency and omit critical data, particularly regarding biogenic carbon in wood and operational emissions. It concludes that for energy-efficient, long-lived buildings in Canada, the choice of structural material has a negligible impact compared to operational efficiency, and recommends prioritizing building longevity and energy efficiency over material substitution.
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Document type: Report
Emission Omissions: Carbon accounting gaps in the built environment
The report argues that current LCAs often produce variable results due to undisclosed assumptions and omissions, particularly regarding biogenic carbon in wood products. It emphasizes that building energy efficiency and longevity are the primary drivers of decarbonization, as operational emissions typically dominate the total life-cycle impact. The authors recommend greater transparency in LCA data, the development of a regionalized national life-cycle inventory for Canada, and a balanced policy approach that incentivizes decarbonization across all material manufacturing sectors rather than favoring one material over others.
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Document type: Report
Transport electrification effect of recent battery cost reduction and future emission scenarios
The research examines the sensitivity of electric vehicle (EV) adoption to battery costs, finding that EVs only achieve a significant global market share of 15% or more when battery costs drop to 100 $/kWh or less. While battery costs have fallen faster than previously estimated, the transport sector remains a more challenging area for greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to other sectors.
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Document type: Research paper
An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future
The study finds that new coal-fired power plants are not necessary to meet South Africa's electricity demand at the lowest cost and that their inclusion would substantially increase both system costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Using the South African Times Model (SATIM), the authors demonstrate that a least-cost build plan relies on wind, solar PV, and gas, while the coal IPPs would create a generation surplus and potentially accelerate Eskom's financial crisis. The report highlights that the emissions from these plants would almost entirely offset the savings from the National Energy Efficiency Strategy or the carbon tax, complicating South Africa's ability to meet its Paris Agreement commitments.
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Document type: Research paper
Natural Infrastructure in São Paulo’s Water System
The report assesses the potential for natural infrastructure to complement the Cantareira Water Supply System in São Paulo, Brazil. Using a Green-Gray Assessment, it finds that targeted reforestation of 4,000 hectares could reduce sediment pollution by 36%, yielding a 28% return on investment over 30 years by reducing water treatment and dredging costs. While forest restoration is likely to slightly increase dry season water flows through a 'sponge effect' and fog capture in cloud forests, the overall impact on annual water availability is estimated to be marginal. The document provides a roadmap for scaling these investments, suggesting blended finance models and improved landowner engagement to overcome risks and uncertainties.
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Document type: Report
Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016
The CSIR's analysis of South Africa's Draft IRP 2016 concludes that a 'Least Cost' scenario—prioritising solar PV, wind, and flexible power—is significantly cheaper, creates more jobs, and emits less CO2 than the government's Base Case and Carbon Budget scenarios. The report argues that the Draft IRP 2016 imposes annual new-build constraints on solar and wind without techno-economic justification, which artificially inflates costs and pushes the system toward new coal or nuclear investment. By 2050, the CSIR finds that a renewable energy share of over 70% is cost-optimal. Technical assessments on system inertia and transmission infrastructure indicate that the costs of maintaining stability in a high-renewable system are low, representing less than 1% of total power generation costs.
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Document type: Report
Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Project Summary Document
The project developed a 2012 base year emissions inventory and projections to 2030 for Pakistan, identifying that emissions are expected to grow significantly without additional intervention. It analyzed mitigation options across agriculture, forestry, energy, industry, transport, and waste, concluding that implementing these measures could reduce emissions by over 100 megatonnes. A sensitivity analysis highlighted that GDP growth is a primary driver of future emissions, with higher growth rates leading to substantially higher GHG levels.
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Document type: Executive summary
Pakistan Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: GHG Reference Case Projection - Report
The report establishes a business-as-usual (BAU) GHG emissions baseline for Pakistan, projecting total emissions to reach 768 Mt CO2e by 2030. Agriculture is identified as the largest emission source, accounting for over 40% of emissions in 2012. The energy sector is further divided into residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electricity generation. The analysis highlights significant data gaps in agriculture, LULUCF, and waste sectors, and concludes that GDP growth is the primary driver of future emission levels, with a high-growth scenario potentially increasing 2030 emissions by 36% relative to the reference case.
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Document type: Report
CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA
The report analyzes various policy scenarios for China's energy transition, highlighting that carbon pricing and renewable energy standards are the most powerful tools for reducing emissions. It emphasizes that regulatory policies, particularly energy efficiency standards in buildings and industry, are highly cost-effective. The analysis suggests a transition toward a service-based economy and a decarbonized electricity grid to meet emissions peaking goals by 2030.
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Document type: Report
The role of flexible biofuel policies in meeting biofuel mandates
The study uses a GTAP-BIO computable general equilibrium model to analyze the relationship between biofuel mandates and feedstock price volatility. It finds that while yield declines significantly increase prices for sugar crops, grains, and oilseeds, the impact on biofuel prices themselves is small. The authors argue that flexible policies, specifically production waivers during low-yield years, can significantly reduce feedstock price spikes, though the effectiveness of such waivers decreases if their implementation is delayed by one year.
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Document type: Research paper
Energy and GHG balances of ethanol production from cane molasses in Indonesia
The study finds that ethanol produced from cane molasses in Indonesia results in a 67% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to gasoline, with emissions estimated at 29 gCO2e per MJ. While the Net Energy Value is -7 MJ/l, the Net Renewable Energy Value is 17.7 MJ/l and the energy yield ratio is 6.1. The analysis indicates that results are highly sensitive to molasses price, ethanol yield, and sugarcane yield, and suggests that energy and environmental gains can be improved through biogas recovery from wastewater and surplus bioelectricity generation via efficient cogeneration using sugarcane biomass residues.
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Document type: Research paper
Achieving 50 Percent Renewable Electricity in California
The report analyzes the impact of raising California's Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) to 50 percent by 2024. It finds that while this transition reduces GHG emissions and production costs, it increases renewable curtailment, primarily driven by downward reserve and regional generation requirements. The study concludes that non-fossil flexibility—including electricity storage, advanced demand response, and allowing renewables to provide reserves—is significantly more effective at reducing curtailment and emissions than increasing the flexibility of natural gas power plants.
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Document type: Report
The Natural Gas Gamble
The document details the methodology for 'The Natural Gas Gamble' report, utilizing a modified National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to compare three primary policy scenarios: Business as Usual, a Carbon Standard, and a Carbon Standard combined with renewable energy and energy efficiency policies. It outlines specific adjustments made to U.S. Department of Energy assumptions regarding capital costs and capacity factors for various energy technologies, including wind, solar, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage. Additionally, it describes sensitivity analyses based on high and low natural gas price projections and explains the calculations used to determine the social costs of carbon and the health benefits of reducing sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.
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Document type: Report
MODELLING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES TRADE-OFFS IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
The document argues that agricultural management is overly driven by food production, leading to a decline in the ecosystems it depends on. It advocates for an ecosystem-based approach to food security and introduces semantic meta-modelling as a tool to integrate various models and quantify trade-offs between crop yields and regulating services like water quality and climate regulation. Using a case study in the Basque Country, the authors demonstrate that informed farming practices, such as adjusting manure application and reducing tillage, can significantly reduce emissions and nitrate leaching without necessarily compromising winter wheat yields.
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Document type: Policy brief
DICE Model Reassessment
The authors reassess the DICE model, finding that correcting several 'dubious or mistaken' assumptions leads to a conclusion that more aggressive emissions reductions are warranted to keep global temperatures below 2 degrees centigrade, while maintaining robust economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Quantifying Cost-effectiveness of Systematic Leak Detection and Repair Programs Using Infrared Cameras
The report analyzes data from 4,293 surveys of oil and gas facilities to determine the economic viability of LDAR programs. It finds that while many individual facilities may experience a net cost, the aggregate abatement cost for gas plants and compressor stations is negative (net benefit), and remains very low for well sites. The study concludes that the vast majority of leaks are economic to repair once identified, and that increasing survey frequency further reduces emissions while keeping abatement costs relatively low.
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Document type: Report
UPSTREAM IMPLICATIONS OF COAL TO GAS SWITCH UNDER CATF’S 111(D) PROPOSAL
The analysis compares a 'No-Policy' scenario with a 'Policy Proposal' scenario for 2020, focusing on the upstream emissions from the production, processing, and transport of fuels. Under the base case using EPA figures, the policy proposal is projected to increase total upstream greenhouse gas emissions by 9.9 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e, consisting of a 9.6 Tg increase in CO2 and a 0.3 Tg CO2e increase in methane. A sensitivity 'high case', which assumes non-hydraulic fracturing methane emissions are twice the EPA's 2011 reports, projects a total increase of 16.9 MMT CO2e. The document notes that upstream CO2 emissions are higher for natural gas (ratio of 0.108 to stack CO2) than for coal (ratio of 0.0193 to stack CO2).
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Document type: Research paper
Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California
The study uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform to model the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, finding that temperature increases of 2°C to 6°C shift hydrology timing earlier by 5–21 days and increase agricultural water demands by up to 5.8%, leading to a decrease in surface water reliability for agriculture from 0.84–0.90 to 0.75–0.79 under the 6°C scenario.
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Document type: Research paper