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This case study evaluates the utility of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the Tropical Storm Model (TSM) for Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Barbados, focusing specifically on wind speed and direction projections to inform coastal protection and disaster planning.

The Barbados Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIP), published by Sustainable Energy for All, outlines a strategic pathway for Barbados to achieve net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2035. The plan identifies NZE 2035 as the most feasible scenario, requiring a total capital investment of BBD 19 billion through 2040, primarily driven by the electrification of the transport sector. The transition aims to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, enhance climate resilience, and create approximately 1,500 new jobs, with a strong emphasis on integrating women and youth into the clean energy workforce.

This report describes two new methodological updates to the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) designed to account for grid unreliability. While standard OnSSET modelling assumes 100% reliability for grid extensions, these updates introduce the Cost of Non-Served Energy (CNSE) and diesel back-up system proxies to more accurately reflect the costs of power outages. A case study in eastern Uganda demonstrates that incorporating these reliability metrics shifts the 'least-cost' electrification pathway away from grid extension and toward decentralized off-grid solutions.