Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California

The study uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform to model the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, finding that temperature increases of 2°C to 6°C shift hydrology timing earlier by 5–21 days and increase agricultural water demands by up to 5.8%, leading to a decrease in surface water reliability for agriculture from 0.84–0.90 to 0.75–0.79 under the 6°C scenario.

• Temperature warming causes the timing of hydrology to shift earlier in the water year by between 5 and 21 days.
• Agricultural water demands increase in correlation with temperature rises: a 2°C increase leads to a 1.4–2.0% rise, 4°C leads to 2.8–3.9%, and 6°C leads to 4.2–5.8%.
• The combination of shifted hydrology and higher demand reduces the reliability of surface water for agricultural use, with quantity-based reliability metrics dropping from 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under a 6°C warming scenario.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California. https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California. 2014. https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California |date=27 January 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014potential, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }