Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California

This research paper describes an integrated hydrology and water operations simulation model developed using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform to assess the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins of California.

• Temperature increases lead to a shift in the timing of hydrology, occurring 5 to 21 days earlier in the water year.
• Climate warming increases agricultural water demands, with projected increases of 1.4–2.0% for a 2°C rise, 2.8–3.9% for a 4°C rise, and 4.2–5.8% for a 6°C rise.
• The combination of altered hydrology and higher demand reduces the reliability of surface water for agriculture; quantity-based reliability metrics drop from 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under a 6°C warming scenario.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2014). Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California. https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California. 2014. https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California |date=27 January 2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2014potential, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, month = jan, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }