Search Climate Insights Directory

The study introduces a simulation model for Barbados and other small island developing states (SIDS) to inform national planning against climate change and economic volatility. Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach, the model demonstrates that climate change increases external debt through storm damage, which destroys productive capital and necessitates imports for rebuilding, compounding existing economic uncertainties in tourism and export demand.

The study uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform to model the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, finding that temperature increases of 2°C to 6°C shift hydrology timing earlier by 5–21 days and increase agricultural water demands by up to 5.8%, leading to a decrease in surface water reliability for agriculture from 0.84–0.90 to 0.75–0.79 under the 6°C scenario.

The document examines how agricultural land management in the Argentinean Pampas affects shallow groundwater and flooding. It finds that the shift from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual wheat-soybean-maize rotations has reduced annual transpiration rates from 1200 to 800 mm/year, leading to shallower groundwater tables and a significant increase in flooding events. The text argues that planting water-logging tolerant pastures or cover crops can reduce waterlogging frequency and increase the number of years suitable for farming by 40%.

The fact sheet examines the relationship between agricultural land use and groundwater management in the Pampas region of Argentina. It argues that the shift from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual rotations of soy, wheat, and corn has increased flooding frequency due to lower transpiration rates. The document suggests that implementing cover crops or water-tolerant pastures can reduce flood events and increase the number of years suitable for production by 40%.

The document introduces the LEAP simulation model, which is used for energy demand and supply analysis, forecasting, and impact assessment, particularly in developing countries. It details the model's five modules: demand, transformation, biomass, environment, and evaluation. To provide practical experience, the guide uses a case study of the 'Wood Hills district'—a rural tropical area—to walk users through exercises in organizing energy demand data, calculating charcoal conversion efficiencies, assessing biomass resource accessibility, and developing comparative scenarios to evaluate interventions like improved cookstoves.

The document uses a System Dynamics simulation model to project the Colombian vehicle fleet's evolution from 2025 to 2050. It finds that while annual GNV consumption is projected to decrease by approximately 43% by 2050, the fuel will not disappear on its own due to systemic inertia and the gradual replacement of vehicles. The analysis highlights that traditional buses may actually see an increase in GNV vehicles due to decentralized decision-making and high initial costs of electric alternatives. Cumulatively, the transport sector would demand over 40 billion cubic meters of GNV and emit more than 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, which represents a significant portion of Colombia's NDC 3.0 commitments. The brief concludes that maintaining GNV demand creates a financial burden of over 200 trillion constant pesos and pressures limited national gas reserves, suggesting that a clear public direction toward zero-emission technologies is necessary to avoid long-term fossil fuel lock-in.