Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte

The document uses a System Dynamics simulation model to project the Colombian vehicle fleet's evolution from 2025 to 2050. It finds that while annual GNV consumption is projected to decrease by approximately 43% by 2050, the fuel will not disappear on its own due to systemic inertia and the gradual replacement of vehicles. The analysis highlights that traditional buses may actually see an increase in GNV vehicles due to decentralized decision-making and high initial costs of electric alternatives. Cumulatively, the transport sector would demand over 40 billion cubic meters of GNV and emit more than 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, which represents a significant portion of Colombia's NDC 3.0 commitments. The brief concludes that maintaining GNV demand creates a financial burden of over 200 trillion constant pesos and pressures limited national gas reserves, suggesting that a clear public direction toward zero-emission technologies is necessary to avoid long-term fossil fuel lock-in.

• Under current trajectories, annual GNV consumption in Colombia is projected to decrease by approximately 43% between 2025 and 2050, reaching around 1,150 million m3, but it will remain significant for at least 25 years.
• The Colombian vehicle fleet (excluding motorcycles) is estimated to grow by approximately 56% between 2025 and 2050, driven by population growth and increased monetary income.
• The transition of GNV varies by vehicle type: electrification is expected to displace gas in taxis due to intensive use and operational costs, while in private and cargo vehicles, gas does not establish itself as a dominant intermediate 'bridge' technology.
• Traditional buses are identified as the most challenging segment, where the number of GNV vehicles is projected to increase through 2050 due to decentralized replacement decisions and the high initial costs of electric buses.
• The projected use of GNV would result in over 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions by mid-century, representing approximately 40% of the national emission commitment set in the NDC 3.0 for 2030 (169.44 MtCO2 eq annually).
• The economic cost of sustaining GNV demand is projected to exceed 200 trillion constant pesos in fuel expenditures over the analysis horizon, which the document characterizes as an operational expense rather than a productive investment.

APA

Parra, J. F., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Mejía, M., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf

Chicago

Parra, Juan Felipe, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Mónica Mejía, and Giovanni Pabón. Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Parra |first1=Juan Felipe |last2=Castro |first2=Karem |last3=Rodas |first3=Santiago |last4=Mejía |first4=Mónica |last5=Pabón |first5=Giovanni |title=Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{parrandanlisis, author = {Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Mejía, Mónica and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }