Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte

This policy brief presents a simulation model of the Colombian vehicle fleet from 2025 to 2050, analyzing the transition of compressed natural gas (GNV) in the transport sector. The analysis finds that without explicit exit policies, GNV consumption will persist at significant levels despite a general trend toward electrification, particularly within the traditional bus segment.

• A simulation model indicates that annual GNV consumption in Colombia will not disappear by 2050, even with increasing electrification. While consumption is projected to decrease by approximately 43% between 2025 and 2050, it will remain at significant levels, reaching around 1,150 million m³ by 2050.
• The overall vehicle fleet in Colombia is projected to grow by approximately 56% between 2025 and 2050, driven by population growth and increased monetary income. This growth means that even technologies losing market share can maintain relevant absolute volumes of fossil fuel consumption.
• The transition of GNV varies by vehicle segment. In taxis, electrification is expected to displace GNV due to high usage and operational costs. In private and freight vehicles, GNV does not establish itself as a dominant intermediate 'bridge' technology, and fossil fuels remain present in relevant proportions through 2050.
• Traditional buses represent the most challenging segment, where the number of gas-powered vehicles is estimated to increase until 2050. This is attributed to decentralized replacement decisions, sensitivity to immediate costs, and a lack of clear public support policies for electric buses, which face barriers like higher initial costs and infrastructure needs.
• The projected use of GNV through 2050 would result in over 70 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions. This amount represents approximately 40% of Colombia's national emission commitment in the NDC 3.0 for 2030 (169.44 MtCO2 eq annually) and nearly half of the limit committed for 2035 (between 155 and 161 MtCO2 eq annually).
• Maintaining GNV in the transport sector has significant economic implications, with projected fuel expenditures exceeding two hundred trillion constant pesos. This is viewed as an operational expense to sustain fossil demand rather than a productive investment in innovation or infrastructure.
• The continued use of gas in transport puts pressure on limited and uncertain national reserves. Reducing gas use in transport could allow these resources to be transferred to industrial sectors where technological substitution is more complex or costly.

APA

Parra, J. F., Castro, K., Rodas, S., Mejía, M., & Pabón, G. (n.d.). Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf

Chicago

Parra, Juan Felipe, Karem Castro, Santiago Rodas, Mónica Mejía, and Giovanni Pabón. Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte. Transforma, n.d. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Parra |first1=Juan Felipe |last2=Castro |first2=Karem |last3=Rodas |first3=Santiago |last4=Mejía |first4=Mónica |last5=Pabón |first5=Giovanni |title=Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte |publisher=Transforma |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{parrandanlisis, author = {Parra, Juan Felipe and Castro, Karem and Rodas, Santiago and Mejía, Mónica and Pabón, Giovanni}, title = {{Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte}}, institution = {Transforma}, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }