{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["simulation model"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'simulation model' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":6,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=simulation+model","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-000065","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000065","title":"A Climate Economy Policy Model for Barbados","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-02-25","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/a-climate-economy-policy-model-for-barbados/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study introduces a simulation model for Barbados and other small island developing states (SIDS) to inform national planning against climate change and economic volatility. Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach, the model demonstrates that climate change increases external debt through storm damage, which destroys productive capital and necessitates imports for rebuilding, compounding existing economic uncertainties in tourism and export demand.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000065#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study proposes a simulation model based on a robust decision making (RDM) philosophy designed to identify policies that maintain positive outcomes across various external changes, specifically for use in policy analysis for small island developing states.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000065#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Economic trajectories and external debt for SIDS are driven by normal variations in tourism and export demand even in the absence of climate change.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000065#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change exacerbates external debt for SIDS because storm damage leads to the loss of productive capital and increases the requirement for imports to rebuild.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000065#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change adaptation","Small Island Developing States","extreme weather event"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","policy analysis"]},{"id":"sei-000160","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000160","title":"Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2014-01-27","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/potential-impacts-of-climate-warming-on-water-supply-reliability-in-the-tuolumne-and-merced-river-basins-california/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study uses the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform to model the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, finding that temperature increases of 2°C to 6°C shift hydrology timing earlier by 5–21 days and increase agricultural water demands by up to 5.8%, leading to a decrease in surface water reliability for agriculture from 0.84–0.90 to 0.75–0.79 under the 6°C scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000160#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Temperature warming causes the timing of hydrology to shift earlier in the water year by between 5 and 21 days.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000160#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Agricultural water demands increase in correlation with temperature rises: a 2°C increase leads to a 1.4–2.0% rise, 4°C leads to 2.8–3.9%, and 6°C leads to 4.2–5.8%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000160#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The combination of shifted hydrology and higher demand reduces the reliability of surface water for agricultural use, with quantity-based reliability metrics dropping from 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under a 6°C warming scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000160#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["climate change","hydrology"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","sensitivity analysis"]},{"id":"iai-002039","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iai-002039","title":"Food and floods","publisher":{"name":"Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research","organization":"inter-american-institute-for-global-change-research"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2010","source_url":"https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot7_EN.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document examines how agricultural land management in the Argentinean Pampas affects shallow groundwater and flooding. It finds that the shift from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual wheat-soybean-maize rotations has reduced annual transpiration rates from 1200 to 800 mm/year, leading to shallower groundwater tables and a significant increase in flooding events. The text argues that planting water-logging tolerant pastures or cover crops can reduce waterlogging frequency and increase the number of years suitable for farming by 40%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002039#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The transition from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual wheat-soybean-maize rotations in the Argentinean Pampas has reduced average annual transpiration rates from 1200 mm/year to 800 mm/year.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002039#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Simulation data indicates that perennial pastures maintain deeper groundwater tables (average -4.4 m compared to -2 m for annual crops) and result in significantly fewer flooding events (2 events versus 47 events over a 100-year period).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002039#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A flood event occurring between 1997 and 2003 affected 27% of the western Pampas, driven by an average groundwater level rise of 2.3 meters, resulting in substantial economic losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002039#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Implementing the use of cover crops or pastures tolerant to water-logging, such as ryegrass or alfalfa, during high-risk periods can increase the number of years suitable for farming by 40% and reduce waterlogging frequency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002039#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["land use","flood","agricultural productivity","ecosystem service"],"geography_discussed":["Brazil"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","field observations","interviews"]},{"id":"iai-002040","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/iai-002040","title":"Alimentos e inundaciones","publisher":{"name":"Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research","organization":"inter-american-institute-for-global-change-research"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"es","date_published":"2010","source_url":"https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/snapshot7_SP.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The fact sheet examines the relationship between agricultural land use and groundwater management in the Pampas region of Argentina. It argues that the shift from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual rotations of soy, wheat, and corn has increased flooding frequency due to lower transpiration rates. The document suggests that implementing cover crops or water-tolerant pastures can reduce flood events and increase the number of years suitable for production by 40%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002040#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The transition from perennial alfalfa pastures to annual crop rotations (wheat-soy-corn) has led to a decrease in average annual transpiration rates from 1200 mm/year to 800 mm/year, resulting in shallower groundwater levels and a higher frequency of flooding.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002040#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Land-use patterns are a central driver of cyclic flooding in the Pampas; specifically, annual grain crops leave fields bare for part of the year, allowing excess water to accumulate, whereas deep-rooted alfalfa maintains drier soils year-round.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002040#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant flooding event between 1997 and 2003 affected 27% of the western Pampas region, coinciding with an average groundwater level rise of 2.3 meters and causing substantial economic losses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002040#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Adopting flexible land-use strategies, such as planting cover crops (e.g., ryegrass, alfalfa) or flood-tolerant pastures during high-risk periods, can reduce flood frequency and increase the number of years suitable for production by 40%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"iai-002040#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["flood","land-use change","agricultural productivity"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","field observations","interviews"]},{"id":"sei-001565","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001565","title":"The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning model (LEAP) and Wood Energy Planning Overview and Exercises","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"guide","language":"en","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://leap.sei.org/documents/RWEDP_Exercises_2001.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document introduces the LEAP simulation model, which is used for energy demand and supply analysis, forecasting, and impact assessment, particularly in developing countries. It details the model's five modules: demand, transformation, biomass, environment, and evaluation. To provide practical experience, the guide uses a case study of the 'Wood Hills district'—a rural tropical area—to walk users through exercises in organizing energy demand data, calculating charcoal conversion efficiencies, assessing biomass resource accessibility, and developing comparative scenarios to evaluate interventions like improved cookstoves.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"LEAP is a simulation model used to represent current energy situations and develop future forecasts based on specific assumptions, making it particularly suitable for wood energy planning due to its land use module.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The LEAP model employs an end-use, demand-driven approach that organizes society into a hierarchical tree structure consisting of sectors, sub-sectors, end-uses, and devices.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The biomass module evaluates wood energy sustainability by assuming that requirements are first met by sustainable yields and then by standing stocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The model incorporates an 'access fraction' in its biomass evaluation to account for limiting factors such as land tenure, harvesting constraints, and distance.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"LEAP allows for scenario development using three primary methods: specifying explicit values for certain years, using annual growth rates, or applying drivers (such as GDP) and elasticities.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Environmental impact assessment in LEAP is conducted by linking demand and transformation devices to an Environmental Data Base (EDB) containing data on emissions to air, water, and soil.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001565#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["biomass","land use","energy demand","environmental impact assessment"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","case study","tutorial"]},{"id":"transfor-000066","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/transfor-000066","title":"Análisis sectorial desde la demanda en Colombia: Escenarios de transición del gas en el sector transporte","publisher":{"name":"Transforma","organization":"transforma"},"document_type":"policy brief","language":"es","date_published":null,"source_url":"https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/PB-Escenarios_de_transicion_del_gas_sector_transporte.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document uses a System Dynamics simulation model to project the Colombian vehicle fleet's evolution from 2025 to 2050. It finds that while annual GNV consumption is projected to decrease by approximately 43% by 2050, the fuel will not disappear on its own due to systemic inertia and the gradual replacement of vehicles. The analysis highlights that traditional buses may actually see an increase in GNV vehicles due to decentralized decision-making and high initial costs of electric alternatives. Cumulatively, the transport sector would demand over 40 billion cubic meters of GNV and emit more than 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, which represents a significant portion of Colombia's NDC 3.0 commitments. The brief concludes that maintaining GNV demand creates a financial burden of over 200 trillion constant pesos and pressures limited national gas reserves, suggesting that a clear public direction toward zero-emission technologies is necessary to avoid long-term fossil fuel lock-in.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Under current trajectories, annual GNV consumption in Colombia is projected to decrease by approximately 43% between 2025 and 2050, reaching around 1,150 million m3, but it will remain significant for at least 25 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Colombian vehicle fleet (excluding motorcycles) is estimated to grow by approximately 56% between 2025 and 2050, driven by population growth and increased monetary income.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The transition of GNV varies by vehicle type: electrification is expected to displace gas in taxis due to intensive use and operational costs, while in private and cargo vehicles, gas does not establish itself as a dominant intermediate 'bridge' technology.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Traditional buses are identified as the most challenging segment, where the number of GNV vehicles is projected to increase through 2050 due to decentralized replacement decisions and the high initial costs of electric buses.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The projected use of GNV would result in over 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions by mid-century, representing approximately 40% of the national emission commitment set in the NDC 3.0 for 2030 (169.44 MtCO2 eq annually).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The economic cost of sustaining GNV demand is projected to exceed 200 trillion constant pesos in fuel expenditures over the analysis horizon, which the document characterizes as an operational expense rather than a productive investment.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"transfor-000066#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["compressed natural gas","energy transition","electric vehicle","greenhouse gas emissions","transportation","decarbonization","fossil fuel","climate finance"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["simulation model","policy brief","sectoral analysis"]}]}