CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA

The report analyzes various policy scenarios for China's energy transition, highlighting that carbon pricing and renewable energy standards are the most powerful tools for reducing emissions. It emphasizes that regulatory policies, particularly energy efficiency standards in buildings and industry, are highly cost-effective. The analysis suggests a transition toward a service-based economy and a decarbonized electricity grid to meet emissions peaking goals by 2030.

• In the Reference Scenario, China's CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 8,684 MMT in 2013 to 12,650 MMT in 2030, while CO2e emissions rise from 10,841 MMT to 17,468 MMT.
• Carbon pricing is identified as the single most effective policy for reducing emissions across all scenarios, contributing approximately 30% of total reductions.
• The Accelerated Low Carbon (ALC) scenario, which focuses on cost-effectiveness, peaks CO2 emissions in 2022 at 9,845 MMT and reduces CO2e emissions to 13,350 MMT by 2030.
• The Low Carbon (LC) scenario peaks CO2 emissions in 2029 at 10,977 MMT, but CO2e emissions continue to increase through 2030, reaching 15,677 MMT.
• Regulatory policies, specifically those targeting energy efficiency, are the primary drivers of emissions reductions in both the LC and ALC scenarios.
• In the electricity sector, a production-based renewable energy standard is more cost-effective than capacity targets because it ensures that non-fossil resources are actually dispatched.
• The most cost-effective policies with significant abatement potential include fuel economy standards for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, industrial energy efficiency standards, and building codes.
• Restructuring the industrial sector to move away from heavy manufacturing toward a knowledge and service economy is the most effective way to reduce industrial emissions.
• Building codes are the strongest policy for the buildings sector, though their full impact is delayed because of the slow turnover of the building fleet; only about one-third of savings are realized by 2030.
• Fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are critical because freight trucks account for approximately 45% of transportation fuel consumption in China.
• The report recommends a national carbon pricing program that regulates carbon 'upstream' at the mine-mouth and wellhead to minimize administrative costs and leakage.
• Social benefits from avoided premature mortality and climate damages significantly outweigh the capital and operational costs of the proposed policies, reaching RMB 8.9 trillion in 2030 under the ALC scenario.

APA

Qiang, L., Chuan, T., Xiaoqi, Z., Kejun, J., Chenmin, H., Harvey, H., Aggarwal, S., Busch, C., Rissman, J., Orvis, R., & Kennan, H. (2016). CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/20160703_ChinaPolicyManualFINAL.pdf

Chicago

Qiang, Liu, Tian Chuan, Zheng Xiaoqi, Jiang Kejun, He Chenmin, Hal Harvey, Sonia Aggarwal, et al. CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA. Energy Innovation, 2016. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/20160703_ChinaPolicyManualFINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Qiang |first1=Liu |last2=Chuan |first2=Tian |last3=Xiaoqi |first3=Zheng |last4=Kejun |first4=Jiang |last5=Chenmin |first5=He |last6=Harvey |first6=Hal |last7=Aggarwal |first7=Sonia |last8=Busch |first8=Chris |last9=Rissman |first9=Jeffrey |display-authors=etal |title=CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=July 2016 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/20160703_ChinaPolicyManualFINAL.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{qiang2016climate, author = {Qiang, Liu and Chuan, Tian and Xiaoqi, Zheng and Kejun, Jiang and Chenmin, He and Harvey, Hal and Aggarwal, Sonia and Busch, Chris and Rissman, Jeffrey and Orvis, Robbie and Kennan, Hallie}, title = {{CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CHINA}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2016}, month = jul, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/20160703_ChinaPolicyManualFINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }