Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal

The SAVi evaluation of the Dakar BRT project reveals that while the project is not financially viable under conventional accounting—showing negative Net Present Value (NPV) across most scenarios—it generates substantial positive externalities. These include significant avoided transport costs, time savings, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents. When these externalities are integrated into the financial analysis, the project's Internal Rate of Return (IRR) increases from 2.17% to 37.69% in the default demand scenario, demonstrating strong socio-economic profitability despite operational financial losses.

• The BRT project is not financially viable under conventional financial evaluation, regardless of passenger demand, as indicated by negative Net Present Value (VAN) and debt coverage ratios (TCD and LLCR) below lender requirements.
• Integrating socio-economic and environmental externalities dramatically improves the project's profitability indicators; in the default demand scenario, the Internal Rate of Return (TRI) rises from 2.17% to 37.69% and the NPV increases from 51 million USD to 1.5 billion USD.
• The most significant positive externalities are avoided transport costs and time savings. Avoided transport costs are estimated between 1,150 billion CFA (low demand) and 1,760 billion CFA (high demand), while time savings range from 424.6 billion CFA to 657.5 billion CFA.
• The BRT project is expected to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over its life cycle. By 2040, emissions are projected to be 8.5% to 13.7% lower than the 'Business as usual' (BAU) scenario, depending on demand.
• The project is projected to improve road safety, reducing the annual number of accidents by more than 13% over time compared to the BAU scenario.
• The BRT is expected to reduce total vehicle-kilometers traveled by 11.7% by 2040 compared to the BAU scenario, contributing to lower air pollution and GHG emissions.
• The project will cause a net loss of jobs within the transport sector, particularly affecting AFTU bus operators (51% loss), but is expected to have a global positive impact on employment by improving access to the formal labor market.
• Sensitivity analysis shows that a 10% increase in ticket prices could make the project generate a positive NPV (11 million USD) specifically in the high-demand scenario, highlighting the tension between affordability and viability.

APA

Bassi, A. M., Casier, L., Pallaske, G., & Uzsoki, D. (2019). Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf

Chicago

Bassi, Andrea M., Liesbeth Casier, Georg Pallaske, and David Uzsoki. Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bassi |first1=Andrea M. |last2=Casier |first2=Liesbeth |last3=Pallaske |first3=Georg |last4=Uzsoki |first4=David |title=Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bassi2019valuation, author = {Bassi, Andrea M. and Casier, Liesbeth and Pallaske, Georg and Uzsoki, David}, title = {{Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }