Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal

This report presents a Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) project in Dakar, Senegal. The analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' (BAU) scenario against three BRT implementation scenarios (default, low demand, and high demand) to evaluate the project's financial viability and its broader socio-economic and environmental externalities. While the project is found to be financially unviable under conventional accounting, the integration of positive externalities—particularly avoided transport costs and time savings—demonstrates significant overall economic and social profitability.

• The BRT project is not financially viable under conventional financial evaluation, regardless of the projected passenger demand. Key indicators such as the Net Present Value (NPV) are negative, and the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR/TCD) and Loan Life Coverage Ratio (LLCR) are below the typical lender requirements of 1.15x and 1.10x, respectively.
• Integrating socio-economic and environmental externalities dramatically improves the project's profitability indicators. In the default demand scenario, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) increases from 2.17% to 37.69%, and the NPV rises from 51 million USD to 1.5 billion USD.
• The most significant positive externalities are avoided transport costs and the value of time saved. Avoided transport costs alone would increase the IRR by 27.44% in the default demand scenario, while time savings would contribute a 14.38% increase.
• The BRT project is expected to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over its life cycle compared to the BAU scenario. By 2040, emissions are projected to decrease by between 8.5% and 13.7% depending on the demand scenario, although a slight increase is expected in 2020 due to construction-related congestion.
• The project is projected to reduce the total number of vehicle-kilometers traveled. By 2040, this figure is expected to be 11.7% lower than in the BAU scenario, contributing to lower pollution and fewer accidents.
• The BRT will cause a net loss of jobs within the transport sector, particularly affecting AFTU bus operators with a projected 51% decrease. However, the report suggests a global positive impact on employment by improving access to the formal labor market for citizens in and around Dakar.
• Sensitivity analysis indicates that ticket pricing is a critical factor for operational viability. A 10% increase in fares combined with high passenger demand is the only scenario where the project generates a positive NPV (11 million USD) without including externalities.
• The BRT infrastructure consists of an 18.3 km dedicated corridor, 23 stations, three main terminals (Petersen, Grand Médine, and Guédiawaye), and a fleet of 144 buses, with a total estimated cost of 369,490,000 euros.

APA

Bassi, A. M., Casier, L., Pallaske, G., & Uzsoki, D. (2019). Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf

Chicago

Bassi, Andrea M., Liesbeth Casier, Georg Pallaske, and David Uzsoki. Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bassi |first1=Andrea M. |last2=Casier |first2=Liesbeth |last3=Pallaske |first3=Georg |last4=Uzsoki |first4=David |title=Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bassi2019valuation, author = {Bassi, Andrea M. and Casier, Liesbeth and Pallaske, Georg and Uzsoki, David}, title = {{Évaluation des actifs durables (SAVi) du projet « Bus Rapid Transit » (BRT) au Sénégal}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/savi-senegal-bus-rapid-transit-fr.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }