An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future

This research report assesses the impact of including two coal-fired independent power producer (IPP) projects—Thabametsi and Khanyisa—in South Africa's electricity system from 2022 to 2052. Using the South African Times Model (SATIM), the study finds that these plants are not necessary to meet demand and would increase both total system costs and greenhouse gas emissions across all analyzed scenarios, potentially offsetting national energy efficiency and carbon tax mitigation efforts.

• The study concludes that in all modeled scenarios, neither new coal nor new nuclear power plants are required to meet electricity demand at the lowest cost.
• Including the coal IPPs increases total discounted system costs across all scenarios, with additional costs ranging from R16.4 billion in the best-case scenario to R27.99 billion in the Climate Change Policy (CCP) scenario.
• In the reference scenario, the combined coal IPPs would add R19.68 billion in present value costs and increase greenhouse gas emissions by 205.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent over the period.
• The greenhouse gas emissions from the coal IPPs in the reference and worst-case scenarios would almost entirely offset the projected emissions savings of the post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy to 2050, which are estimated at 214 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
• The coal IPPs use Fluidised Bed Combustion (FBC) technology, which results in a GHG intensity of 1.23 tCO2eq/MWh—approximately 24% higher than the current Eskom fleet average and 58% higher than the Medupi and Kusile plants—largely due to higher nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions.
• Under a climate change mitigation policy scenario aiming for the low-PPD (peak, plateau, and decline) trajectory, committing to the coal IPPs would increase the discounted system cost by R27.9 billion and force the stranding of existing Eskom assets to meet emission constraints.
• The study notes that South Africa currently has a large surplus of generation capacity, and the 2010 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2010) overestimated demand, making the coal IPPs unnecessary for meeting short, medium, or long-term growth.
• The coal IPPs are subject to power purchase agreements (PPAs) requiring a fixed minimum off-take of 85% of energy generation capacity, which the study argues locks the country into future emissions and higher costs while reducing system flexibility.

APA

Ireland, G., & Burton, J. (2018). An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Ireland, Gregory, and Jesse Burton. An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future. Centre for Environmental Rights, 2018. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ireland |first1=Gregory |last2=Burton |first2=Jesse |title=An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |date=28 May 2018 |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ireland2018assessment, author = {Ireland, Gregory and Burton, Jesse}, title = {{An assessment of new coal plants in South Africa’s electricity future}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, year = {2018}, month = may, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }