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The document argues that the EU ETS1 is fit for purpose until 2035, after which a supply-demand mismatch for allowances may emerge. It strongly warns that integrating international carbon credits (Article 6) or carbon removals into the ETS would undermine the carbon price incentive, risk emissions mitigation avoidance, and divert investment away from domestic decarbonisation. For the upcoming ETS2, the brief recommends allowing the market to function for several years before making adjustments due to high price uncertainty. It also cautions against merging ETS1 and ETS2 due to differences in market actor price sensitivity and suggests maintaining national targets beyond 2030 to support the ETS.

The research evaluates Mongolia's greenhouse gas emission trajectories up to 2050, comparing a baseline scenario with one incorporating 49 mitigation measures. While emissions could rise significantly without intervention, the proposed measures could reduce 2050 emissions by 40% relative to the baseline, though the authors note that technical feasibility and full decarbonization remain distant goals due to implementation barriers.

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to project outcomes for 2050 in four arid and semiarid counties in Kenya. The study evaluates three scenarios—achieving 10% forest cover, converting forests to croplands, and restoring degraded forests—to guide sustainable land management and meet Kenyan government climate commitments.

The study analyzes LULC trends in Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, and Elgeyo Marakwet counties, finding that achieving a 10% forest cover target yields the most favorable environmental and agricultural outcomes by 2050. It warns against the 'Shamba system' of forest-to-cropland conversion and highlights the threat of invasive species, particularly Prosopis juliflora, in arid regions.

The report assesses Madagascar's clean cooking landscape, where only 5% of households use clean technologies. It models two 2030 scenarios: a baseline based on the SDG7 Energy Compact and a 'Universal Access' scenario emphasizing e-cooking and biofuels. Key findings highlight that while bioethanol, biogas, and pellets have vast production potential, affordability remains the primary barrier. The transition could significantly reduce deforestation and avert thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution, particularly benefiting women who bear the brunt of fuel collection and cooking tasks.

The paper evaluates four pathways—Business-as-usual, Renewable Methane, Renewable Hydrogen, and Cost Minimal—to transition the Baltic states and Finland away from fossil gas. It finds that full decarbonization by 2050 is feasible, with the Cost Minimal scenario offering the highest economic benefits and fastest emission reductions. The study details the necessary wind power capacities, investment requirements (EUR 11.3 billion for the CM scenario), and policy actions needed to integrate regional markets and scale up renewable gas production.

The briefing argues that the EU is on course to reach a 45% renewable energy share by 2030, rendering the current 40% Fit-for-55 target outdated. This trajectory is driven by solar capacity growth, heat pump adoption, and electric vehicle expansion, which are all outpacing original policy forecasts.

The GCF's direct access modality, primarily operationalized through institutional accreditation, has largely failed to enable a diverse range of national entities to access funding at scale. While the number of Direct Access Entities (DAEs) has grown, the portfolio remains highly concentrated among a few well-resourced financial institutions, with 63% of DAEs having no approved projects. The report finds that the high transaction costs of accreditation and project design favor high-capacity institutions, while support mechanisms like the Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme (RPSP) and Project Preparation Facility (PPF) have not effectively leveled the playing field. Implementation challenges for DAEs are similar to those of International Accredited Entities (IAEs), though DAEs show better adaptability to national governance disruptions. The report recommends diversifying access pathways beyond accreditation, clarifying the strategic vision for direct access, and enhancing implementation support.

The report analyzes the financial exposure of Coal India Limited (CIL), Indian Railways (IR), and NTPC to the energy transition using a Green Economy Model (GEM). It compares a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario with an Aspirational scenario aligned with net-zero goals to calculate 'cash flow at risk' (CFaR). The findings indicate significant long-term financial risks for all three entities, particularly in the 2030–2040 period. To mitigate these, the report proposes diversification into solar photovoltaics, battery storage, and operational reforms, while emphasizing the need for a just transition for coal-dependent communities.

The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.

The Living Planet Report 2022 documents a severe decline in global wildlife populations and emphasizes the interlinked nature of the biodiversity and climate crises. It advocates for a global 'nature-positive' goal by 2030, requiring transformative shifts in economic systems, production, and consumption to move beyond current conservation efforts and address the root drivers of environmental degradation.

The study analyzes five development scenarios for Kenya's residential cooking sector to quantify GHG emissions, health impacts, and fuel demand. It finds that shifting from 'modern cooking' (LPG and improved biomass stoves) to 'clean cooking' (electric, biogas, and bioethanol) can significantly reduce emissions, with the most ambitious scenario achieving net-zero by mid-century. Implementation of the net-zero scenario could avoid nearly 500,000 premature deaths over 30 years. However, the transition is hindered by high upfront costs, cultural practices like fuel stacking, and the absence of a comprehensive, sector-wide strategy.

The report outlines two primary decarbonisation scenarios for India's transport sector: a 'Rail focused' pathway and a 'Road focused' pathway. Both scenarios emphasise that electrification is essential, aiming for nearly 100% electrification of road fleets by 2050. The Rail focused scenario prioritises a massive modal shift toward public transit and rail freight, which significantly reduces the total number of electric vehicles needed. The Road focused scenario assumes continued growth in private vehicle ownership, relying more heavily on rapid electrification and alternative fuels. The analysis identifies four priority action areas: sustainable urban planning to counter urban sprawl, improving non-motorised and public transport, expanding high-quality railway infrastructure, and electrifying all road vehicle fleets. It concludes that achieving these goals will require substantial international financial support and the adoption of global good-practice policies from regions like China, California, and Europe.

The report examines Rwanda's bioeconomy by modelling biomass flows and land-use changes through 2050. It finds that while population growth and urbanization will drive a significant increase in biomass demand in a baseline scenario, a sustainable resource use scenario—focused on clean cooking and fuel-switching—could reduce wood requirements by approximately 5 million tonnes by 2050. The study highlights the unsustainable nature of urban charcoal reliance in Kigali and suggests that shifting wood fuel sourcing to smallholder and agroforestry plantations can preserve state forests.

The report analyzes Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and its low human development outcomes. It argues that while GDP is projected to grow, absolute poverty will increase due to rapid population growth unless the government prioritizes human development. The authors evaluate five sectoral scenarios, concluding that investing in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure provides the most significant economic and health benefits, while prioritizing education and reproductive healthcare for women is the fastest way to boost incomes and reduce maternal mortality.

The report argues that flexibility needs in India's electricity system are growing faster than energy demand, particularly under high renewable energy scenarios. It finds that a balanced portfolio of demand-side flexibility, powerplant upgrades, and energy storage can reduce total system costs by 5% to 8% and carbon emissions by 8% to 12% compared to a base case. The analysis highlights regional disparities, noting that states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu face higher curtailment risks, and emphasizes the need for updated market designs, business models, and infrastructure to unlock these flexibility options.

The report evaluates options for replacing Poland's Bełchatów Lignite Power Plant, concluding that a 'Coal Exit' strategy by 2035—replacing coal with renewables (RES) and gas—is more cost-efficient and beneficial for health and employment than maintaining current policies. The Coal Exit scenario is projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 38% and total system costs by €64 billion compared to the Reference scenario, while increasing total employment by 76%. Specifically, phasing out Bełchatów earlier contributes €4 billion to these savings and approximately 50 million tonnes to the overall CO2 reduction.

The study predicts that under the RCP 8.5 scenario (2041-2070), Mexico's national wheat production will decline by 12% due to climate change, with additional losses of 7% to 18% specifically caused by tropospheric ozone pollution, depending on cultivar sensitivity.

The report identifies 5.5 million km2 of 'REMAIN' land in sub-Saharan Africa potentially available for biofuel production after accounting for food security and conservation. Under current conditions, RSB-compliant production on prime and good quality land could yield 165 mt of aviation biofuel per annum, with miscanthus identified as the most promising feedstock. However, this potential is projected to decrease by approximately 40% by 2050 due to cropland expansion for food and climate change impacts. The study concludes that the region could meet between 30% and 90% of the projected 2050 global demand for alternative aviation fuels, depending on whether moderately suitable land is utilized.

The document examines the water-energy-food nexus in Rwanda, highlighting that high population growth and climate change create severe pressure on land, water, and biomass. Scenario modelling indicates that even under optimistic conditions, fuel wood demand will exceed supply, and aggressive irrigation targets could exceed water availability by three times. The authors argue that current sectoral disconnects threaten ecosystem preservation and recommend coordinated central planning and multi-stakeholder dialogue to avoid negative externalities.