Angolan futures 2050

The report analyzes Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and its low human development outcomes. It argues that while GDP is projected to grow, absolute poverty will increase due to rapid population growth unless the government prioritizes human development. The authors evaluate five sectoral scenarios, concluding that investing in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure provides the most significant economic and health benefits, while prioritizing education and reproductive healthcare for women is the fastest way to boost incomes and reduce maternal mortality.

• Angola's economy is highly vulnerable to global oil market volatility, with crude oil exports accounting for more than 95% of export earnings in 2017. Proven oil reserves are expected to be depleted by the early 2030s.
• Rapid population growth is projected to hinder income growth. The population is expected to reach 80 million by 2050, and the ratio of working-age people to dependants will not reach the 'demographic dividend' threshold of 1.7 to one until the second half of the century.
• Poverty is pervasive and expected to grow in absolute terms for at least a decade due to population growth, despite projected declines in the poverty rate. Approximately 22 million Angolans currently live in poverty.
• Educational attainment is low, particularly for women; nearly one-third of adults have no education, and 70% of those are women. The report identifies deprivation of education as the most powerful driver of poverty in the country.
• Basic infrastructure is severely lacking, with only 60% of the population having access to safe water and 40% to improved sanitation. Improving these rates to 70% and 75% respectively by 2035 could reduce childhood malnourishment by one-third.
• Angola faces significant health challenges, including a high maternal mortality ratio of roughly 452 deaths per 100,000 births and high rates of childhood malnutrition (38% of children under five in 2018).
• The agricultural sector performs far below its potential, with only 0.2% of cropland actually irrigated. This leads to high food insecurity and a projected increase in crop import dependence to nearly 60% by 2050.
• Governance is characterized by poor regulatory quality and high corruption. Angola is classified as an 'anocracy,' meaning it possesses both democratic and autocratic characteristics, which the report suggests may lead to instability during a transition to democracy.
• The government spends over three times more of its GDP on the military than its lower-middle-income African peers, while underspending on core infrastructure and education.
• Among the tested scenarios, the 'Water, Sanitation & Hygiene' (WASH) scenario provides the largest boost to GDP, while the 'Education & Family Planning' scenario has the most dramatic impact on GDP per capita and the reduction of extreme poverty by mid-century.

APA

Welborn, L., Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2020). Angolan futures 2050. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar35.pdf

Chicago

Welborn, Lily, Jakkie Cilliers, and Stellah Kwasi. Angolan futures 2050. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar35.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Welborn |first1=Lily |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Kwasi |first3=Stellah |title=Angolan futures 2050 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar35.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{welborn2020angolan, author = {Welborn, Lily and Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Angolan futures 2050}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar35.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }