India’s State-Owned Energy Enterprises, 2020–2050

The report analyzes the financial exposure of Coal India Limited (CIL), Indian Railways (IR), and NTPC to the energy transition using a Green Economy Model (GEM). It compares a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario with an Aspirational scenario aligned with net-zero goals to calculate 'cash flow at risk' (CFaR). The findings indicate significant long-term financial risks for all three entities, particularly in the 2030–2040 period. To mitigate these, the report proposes diversification into solar photovoltaics, battery storage, and operational reforms, while emphasizing the need for a just transition for coal-dependent communities.

• Coal India Limited (CIL) faces a long-term cumulative cash flow at risk (CFaR) of INR 415 billion (USD 5.9 billion) by 2050, representing a 28% reduction in net present value (NPV) if India follows an Aspirational pathway.
• For CIL, the period of most rapid CFaR accumulation is the medium term (2030–2040), during which the value rises by 2.6 times, necessitating risk mitigation strategies that scale by that period.
• CIL could reduce its long-term net CFaR from 28% to 19% by diversifying into grid-scale solar photovoltaics (SPV), with a target of 52 GW by 2050 potentially reducing CFaR by INR 94 billion (USD 1.3 billion).
• Indian Railways (IR) is highly vulnerable to falling coal freight revenues, with a long-term CFaR estimated at INR 2.112 trillion (USD 30 billion), or 22% of its NPV.
• IR could mitigate some financial risk through phased passenger price reform for long-distance air conditioned (LDAC) passengers; a 2% annual reduction in under-pricing could reduce CFaR by INR 140 billion (USD 2 billion).
• Improving IR's operational efficiency by doubling average freight speeds from 25 km/h to 50 km/h by 2026 could generate an additional gross revenue of INR 3,644 billion (USD 51 billion) by 2050.
• NTPC faces a long-term total CFaR of INR 404 billion (USD 5.7 billion), which is approximately 22% of its NPV under the BAU scenario, with the highest risk increment occurring in the medium term.
• NTPC can partially mitigate its medium- and long-term CFaR by 2%–3% through investments in battery energy storage systems (BESSs).
• To avoid stranded assets and maintain profitability, NTPC could implement a strategic decommissioning roadmap, accelerating the phase-down of approximately one-third of its fleet (14 GW) by 2035.
• India's oil and gas PSUs face significant risks from demand peaking; oil demand is projected to peak by 2037 in the Aspirational scenario, potentially leaving up to 430,000 barrels per day of refining capacity underutilized.
• The transition of coal-dependent PSUs has a profound impact on communities; in 22 top mining districts, 50% of the population is 'multidimensionally poor,' double the national average of 27.5%.

APA

Viswanathan, B., Raizada, S., Bassi, A. M., Pallaske, G., & Beaton, C. (2022). India’s State-Owned Energy Enterprises, 2020–2050. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/india-state-owned-energy-enterprises.pdf

Chicago

Viswanathan, Balasubramanian, Swasti Raizada, Andrea M. Bassi, Georg Pallaske, and Christopher Beaton. India’s State-Owned Energy Enterprises, 2020–2050. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/india-state-owned-energy-enterprises.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Viswanathan |first1=Balasubramanian |last2=Raizada |first2=Swasti |last3=Bassi |first3=Andrea M. |last4=Pallaske |first4=Georg |last5=Beaton |first5=Christopher |title=India’s State-Owned Energy Enterprises, 2020–2050 |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/india-state-owned-energy-enterprises.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{viswanathan2022indias, author = {Viswanathan, Balasubramanian and Raizada, Swasti and Bassi, Andrea M. and Pallaske, Georg and Beaton, Christopher}, title = {{India’s State-Owned Energy Enterprises, 2020–2050}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-09/india-state-owned-energy-enterprises.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }