Envisaging alternative bioeconomy pathways: a case study from Rwanda

The report examines Rwanda's bioeconomy by modelling biomass flows and land-use changes through 2050. It finds that while population growth and urbanization will drive a significant increase in biomass demand in a baseline scenario, a sustainable resource use scenario—focused on clean cooking and fuel-switching—could reduce wood requirements by approximately 5 million tonnes by 2050. The study highlights the unsustainable nature of urban charcoal reliance in Kigali and suggests that shifting wood fuel sourcing to smallholder and agroforestry plantations can preserve state forests.

• In the baseline scenario, total biomass energy demand is projected to increase by 48% to 4.8 million tonnes of wood equivalent by 2030, reaching 10.2 million tonnes by 2050, primarily driven by population growth and urbanization.
• The sustainable resource scenario, which implements targets for household firewood requirements, would reduce the amount of wood needed to meet demand by about 2 million tonnes by 2030 and about 5 million tonnes by 2050.
• Urban charcoal reliance in Kigali is identified as unsustainable; nearly 40% of the biomass demand reduction in the sustainable scenario is attributed to Kigali, where wood requirements for charcoal are nearly double those of other regions despite a smaller population.
• Under the baseline scenario, state plantations are harvested rapidly with very little biomass remaining by 2040, whereas the sustainable resource scenario preserves state plantations by deriving wood fuel mainly from agroforestry and smallholder plantations.
• Biomass-dependent industries, including brickmaking, construction, timber, and tea processing, are projected to increase their share of total biomass consumption from 5% in 2015 to 14% by 2050.
• The sustainable resource scenario targets 100% access to clean cooking solutions for both urban and rural populations by 2050, with LPG adoption reaching 40% in urban areas and 20% in rural areas by that date.

APA

Bailis, R., & Ogeya, M. (2020). Envisaging alternative bioeconomy pathways: a case study from Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/rwanda-bioeconomy-bailis-sei-wp-2020.pdf

Chicago

Bailis, Rob, and Mbeo Ogeya. Envisaging alternative bioeconomy pathways: a case study from Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2020. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/rwanda-bioeconomy-bailis-sei-wp-2020.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bailis |first1=Rob |last2=Ogeya |first2=Mbeo |title=Envisaging alternative bioeconomy pathways: a case study from Rwanda |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=August 2020 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/rwanda-bioeconomy-bailis-sei-wp-2020.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bailis2020envisaging, author = {Bailis, Rob and Ogeya, Mbeo}, title = {{Envisaging alternative bioeconomy pathways: a case study from Rwanda}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/rwanda-bioeconomy-bailis-sei-wp-2020.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }