Gas decarbonization pathways for the Baltic states and Finland

The paper evaluates four pathways—Business-as-usual, Renewable Methane, Renewable Hydrogen, and Cost Minimal—to transition the Baltic states and Finland away from fossil gas. It finds that full decarbonization by 2050 is feasible, with the Cost Minimal scenario offering the highest economic benefits and fastest emission reductions. The study details the necessary wind power capacities, investment requirements (EUR 11.3 billion for the CM scenario), and policy actions needed to integrate regional markets and scale up renewable gas production.

• Full decarbonization of the gas sectors in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by 2050 is feasible across four modelled scenarios.
• The Cost Minimal (CM) scenario is the most economically advantageous, providing the lowest total costs, the fastest emission reductions, and cumulative regional GDP gains between 0.25% and 0.33%. It is projected to create between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs compared to the Business-as-usual scenario.
• The CM scenario predicts a 100% decarbonized gas supply by 2040, utilizing biomethane for 64% (23 TWh) and renewable hydrogen for 36% (14 TWh) of the supply. This transition would require a total investment of EUR 11.3 billion by 2050 for production and storage, with 88% of these costs associated with Finland and Lithuania.
• Renewable hydrogen production costs are expected to decrease by approximately 64% between 2030 and 2050 due to efficiency improvements and technology advancements, though the average regional cost (154 EUR/MWh) remains significantly higher than biomethane (55 EUR/MWh).
• Meeting the electricity demands for renewable hydrogen production in the REN-Hydrogen scenario would require significant wind capacity: Lithuania (8.7 GW onshore, 5.4 GW offshore), Finland (3.9 GW onshore, 3.6 GW offshore), Latvia (1.8 GW onshore, 1.3 GW offshore), and Estonia (1.2 GW onshore, 0.859 GW offshore).
• Existing LNG terminals, specifically Klaipeda, are sufficient to meet regional needs until 2044 and can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG without conversion, although hydrogen derivatives like green ammonia would require new safety measures and environmental permits.

APA

Muthukumaran, G., & Keypour, J. (2024). Gas decarbonization pathways for the Baltic states and Finland. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/sei2024.020-gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland.pdf

Chicago

Muthukumaran, Gowtham, and Javad Keypour. Gas decarbonization pathways for the Baltic states and Finland. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/sei2024.020-gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Muthukumaran |first1=Gowtham |last2=Keypour |first2=Javad |title=Gas decarbonization pathways for the Baltic states and Finland |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/sei2024.020-gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{muthukumaran2024gas, author = {Muthukumaran, Gowtham and Keypour, Javad}, title = {{Gas decarbonization pathways for the Baltic states and Finland}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/sei2024.020-gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }