Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55

This briefing by Ember argues that the European Union's Fit-for-55 renewable energy target of 40% for 2030 is outdated due to the rapid acceleration of clean technology deployment. Based on industry forecasts for solar, heat pumps, and electric vehicles, the analysis suggests the EU is currently on course to reach a 45% renewable energy share by 2030, with the potential to reach 50% if policy and financial support are strengthened.

• The EU is projected to reach a renewable energy share of 44.3% by 2030 under a 'Current market outlook' and 49.5% under an 'Optimistic market outlook', making the existing 40% Fit-for-55 target outdated.
• Solar power is the primary driver of the clean energy surge, with 2030 capacity forecasts reaching 736 GW in the most likely medium scenario. This is more than 90% higher than the 383 GW originally foreseen in the Fit-for-55 scenario.
• Heat pump deployment has accelerated significantly, with approximately 20 million units already in stock. Forecasts suggest a total stock of 60-72 million units by 2030, which is over 50% higher than the 40 million assumed in Fit-for-55 modelling.
• The electric vehicle (EV) fleet is expected to grow to between 40 million and 84 million by 2030, far exceeding the 30 million EVs required under the Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU plans.
• Increased electrification of heating and transport will raise final power demand by 120 TWh to 247 TWh by 2030. However, this is expected to be covered by renewable electricity supply, which would reach 72% of the electricity mix in the Current outlook and 82% in the Optimistic scenario.
• While solar and offshore wind are performing well, onshore wind is struggling with inflation and supply chain issues, with projected 2030 capacity (311-353 GW) falling below the Fit-for-55 target of 361 GW.
• Aligning the EU's 2030 renewables target to at least 45% is presented as a necessity to support the Net Zero Industrial Plan and ensure European industry can capitalise on the growth of clean technologies to maintain global competitiveness.

APA

Cremona, E., Rosslow, C., & Candlin, A. (2023). Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth, Chris Rosslow, and Ali Candlin. Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55. Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Rosslow |first2=Chris |last3=Candlin |first3=Ali |title=Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55 |publisher=Ember |date=28 February 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2023fit, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth and Rosslow, Chris and Candlin, Ali}, title = {{Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }