Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55

The briefing argues that the EU is on course to reach a 45% renewable energy share by 2030, rendering the current 40% Fit-for-55 target outdated. This trajectory is driven by solar capacity growth, heat pump adoption, and electric vehicle expansion, which are all outpacing original policy forecasts.

• The EU is projected to achieve a renewable energy share of 44.3% by 2030 under a 'Current market outlook' and up to 49.5% under an 'Optimistic market outlook' with additional support.
• Solar power deployment is significantly exceeding expectations; the most likely scenario forecasts EU capacity to reach 736 GW by 2030, which is more than 90% higher than the 383 GW originally foreseen in the Fit-for-55 scenario.
• Heat pump adoption has accelerated, with the EU reaching its REPowerEU interim objective of 20 million units four years ahead of schedule. Total stock is forecasted to be between 60-72 million units by 2030.
• The electric vehicle (EV) fleet is expected to grow beyond the 30 million required by Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU, with industry outlooks placing the 2030 fleet between 40 million and 84 million.
• While solar and offshore wind are performing well, onshore wind is struggling due to inflation and supply chain issues, with projected 2030 capacity (311-353 GW) falling short of the Fit-for-55 target of 361 GW.
• Increased electrification of heating and transport will raise final power demand by 120 TWh to 247 TWh by 2030, but this is expected to be covered by the higher-than-anticipated growth in renewable electricity supply.
• Aligning the EU's 2030 renewables target with a minimum of 45% is presented as essential to support the Net Zero Industrial Plan and ensure European industry can capitalise on the growth of clean technologies.

APA

Cremona, E., Rosslow, C., & Candlin, A. (2023). Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf

Chicago

Cremona, Elisabeth, Chris Rosslow, and Ali Candlin. Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55. Ember, 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cremona |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Rosslow |first2=Chris |last3=Candlin |first3=Ali |title=Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55 |publisher=Ember |date=28 February 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cremona2023fit, author = {Cremona, Elisabeth and Rosslow, Chris and Candlin, Ali}, title = {{Fit for the future, not Fit-for-55}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/09/Fit-for-the-Future-1-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }