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The document argues that internally displaced persons in Syria are extraordinarily vulnerable to recruitment by both state and non-state armed actors. It highlights a critical gap in international attention and data regarding IDP mobilization compared to refugee militarization. The authors identify four key factors driving this risk: recruitment processes, the use of humanitarian resources, security vulnerabilities, and socialization through ideological education. Specifically, the Islamic State (IS) is noted for using religious emissaries and controlling school curricula to recruit and indoctrinate displaced populations.

The document analyzes the rise of the Vilayat-e Khorasan front of Daesh in Afghanistan and the resulting anxiety among neighboring states. It argues that regional governments are hindered by a 'mutual blame game,' treating Daesh as an external political entity rather than a social phenomenon with domestic drivers. The author identifies key drivers of radicalization, including poverty, unemployment, lack of education, and political grievances, particularly in Central Asia. The paper distinguishes between short-term counter-measures (military force, border controls, intelligence) and long-term preventive measures (education, inter-faith dialogue, and addressing socio-economic grievances). It concludes that a multilateral approach, supported by regional organizations like the SCO and CICA, is essential to combat this transnational threat.

The document examines the review of UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325), highlighting the 'Global Study' and the resulting UNSCR 2242. It notes a general failure in implementation, particularly regarding sexual violence in conflict, and identifies emerging threats such as the militarization of women's lives due to violent extremism and critical funding shortages caused by shifting donor priorities in Europe and the Nordic countries.

The report examines how the global financial crisis impacted European societal security through three dimensions: material financial security, the perceived social value of the financial sector, and broader societal resilience. It finds that while some countries recovered, peripheral euro area nations experienced depression-level unemployment, severe material deprivation, and significant political polarization. The document also explores the rise of alternative finance and cryptocurrencies as responses to a crisis of legitimacy in traditional banking, while noting that austerity measures may have undermined social cohesion and increased domestic violence and suicide rates in severely affected regions.

The research argues that autocratic elections create a temporal trade-off: they increase the immediate risk of regime failure by serving as focal points for opposition collective action, but enhance long-term stability by improving the regime's capacity for co-optation, repression, and legitimacy. Using data from 115 countries, the authors find that this pattern is most pronounced in multi-party contested elections. The study employs Instrumental Variables Probit models to suggest that the short-term destabilizing effect is causal and not merely a result of strategic timing by autocrats.

The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.

The report examines the financial system as critical infrastructure, distinguishing between 'financial securitisation' (making securities liquid and credible) and 'political securitisation' (surveillance to combat terrorism and money laundering). It maps global financial flows and actors, then details the tools used to maintain stability, such as Basel III capital requirements, deposit insurance, and the role of central banks as lenders of last resort. A significant portion of the analysis focuses on the 'finance-security assemblage,' where IMF macroeconomic monitoring converges with FATF's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT) regimes. The authors argue that this convergence has led to 'de-risking,' where banks exclude 'suspect communities' and high-risk jurisdictions based on private-sector risk-profiling databases like World-Check, potentially creating barriers to financial inclusion and exacerbating global instability.

The paper analyzes the Islamic State's (IS) organizational approach to integrating foreign fighters and local recruits in Iraq and Syria. It argues that while foreign fighters provide essential manpower and ideological zeal for IS's territorial ambitions, they introduce risks of adverse selection (incompetence or infiltration). IS mitigates these risks through segregated training, vetting via extreme acts, and deploying foreign fighters in high-risk roles like suicide missions. Conversely, local recruits present a moral hazard of latent opportunism and personal vendettas. The authors conclude that IS effectively manages these diverse groups by aligning them under the overarching goal of establishing a Caliphate, though internal tensions can emerge during military setbacks.

The author discusses the deep distrust immigrant families in Norway have toward the Child Welfare Service (Barnevernet), noting that this fear often outweighs the understanding that some children need protection. This crisis of confidence has evolved into a foreign policy issue, with countries like Lithuania, Poland, and India becoming involved. The author argues that the state's communication measures have been insufficient and that trust in such institutions is essential for a democratic society and the successful integration of immigrants.

The author uses the 'Indian pattern' of communal violence to hypothesize that Myanmar's 2015 elections may trigger anti-Muslim riots and a resurgence of ethnic armed struggle. The paper argues that political elites, particularly the USDP and the military (Tatmadaw), may exploit religious and ethnic cleavages to maintain power or justify military intervention. It suggests short-term measures like postponing census results and long-term structural reforms such as federalism and proportional representation to mitigate these risks.

The briefing examines the correlation between climate and political violence, noting that while conflicts cluster in dry and tropical zones, there is little evidence that climatic variability directly causes state-based violent conflict. Instead, the authors argue that climate change may increase conflict risk indirectly through three primary causal mechanisms: forced migration, food insecurity, and economic shocks. These effects are not universal but depend on 'scope conditions' such as poverty, poor governance, and political instability. The document concludes that the security challenges posed by climate change are essentially development challenges, and that investing in adaptation and good governance is critical to preventing a growing gap between stable, wealthy societies and those caught in a poverty and instability trap.

The document analyzes international mediation as a tool for peacemaking, noting that while it has become more common since the Cold War—particularly for interstate conflicts—it is underutilized in civil wars. It highlights a geographical bias toward Europe and the Middle East and a trend toward the regionalization of mediation through organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS. While mediation significantly increases the likelihood of short-term settlements, the authors find no evidence of consistent long-term positive effects on durable peace.

The report examines the intersection of financial systems and societal security, arguing that both fields have historically relied on probabilistic risk models but are shifting toward managing 'radical uncertainty'. It details various financial risk models—such as Modern Portfolio Theory, CAPM, and Value at Risk (VaR)—and contrasts them with security methodologies like scenario planning and pre-emption. The author concludes that the 'financialisation of security' and 'securitisation of finance' reflect a broader liberal security problematic of securing circulation in a complex, interdependent world, where societal security is increasingly defined by qualitative resilience and preparedness rather than quantified prediction.

The document serves as an appendix to a study on the relationship between majority religion and armed conflict. It provides detailed datasets on the majority religions of countries as of 2010, the incidence of intrastate armed conflict by religion between 1991 and 2012, and a comprehensive list of opposition groups in intrastate conflicts from 1946 to 2013. It specifically examines the prevalence of Islamist insurgents and the conflict history of the ten countries with the largest Muslim populations.

The document examines the strategic realignment in the Eastern Mediterranean involving the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Israel, and Turkey. It argues that while the RoC, Israel, and Greece have formed a new security bloc to balance Turkey's naval ambitions, a structural need to contain Iranian influence is driving a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey. This shift is further incentivized by commercial imperatives, as the discovery of Egypt's Zohr gas field makes Turkey a more viable export market for Israeli natural gas. The author contends that these twin dynamics—the Turkey-Israel rapprochement and the RoC-Israel-Greece security formation—provide a new balance of incentives and guarantees that could facilitate a resolution to the Cyprus conflict.

The policy brief examines the 'special partnership' between Russia and Turkey, noting that while they disagree on the Syrian civil war, they share autocratic political instincts and a mutual desire to curtail US interventionism. The author argues that Russia can boost its Middle Eastern role through joint initiatives with Turkey, leveraging the personal chemistry between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While energy ties—specifically natural gas pipelines and the Akkuyu nuclear power plant—provide a foundation, the document suggests that the leaders' shared 'contrarian' tendencies and need for foreign policy victories are primary drivers for potential cooperation in Northern Syria and the South Caucasus.

The document examines the role of diaspora populations in international development, highlighting that their financial contributions often exceed official development assistance. It analyzes the challenges of integrating diaspora-led initiatives into the formal Norwegian aid system (Norad), the value of 'diasprenuer' (diaspora entrepreneurship), and the importance of recognizing transnational bonds as a resource rather than a barrier to integration.

The document advocates for a shift in DDR processes from viewing gender as a challenge to treating it as an asset. It emphasizes that women are active combatants who gain skills and independence during conflict, while men can also be victims of violent masculinity and repressive regimes. The author argues that successful DDR requires increasing female participation in peace processes, 'disarming' violent masculinities, and accounting for the socio-economic and cultural contexts that affect reintegration.

Return migration to Pakistan is highly diverse, ranging from the lifestyle-driven back-and-forth mobility of naturalized citizens from Europe to the forced return of irregular migrants via deportations and assisted voluntary return programmes. While the country relies heavily on remittances—receiving 18.4 billion USD in financial year 2014—returnees often face a context of instability, poor living conditions, and a lack of trust in state institutions due to corruption and nepotism. The Pakistani government's approach to return migration has primarily focused on short-term laborers from the Middle East and the promotion of formal remittance channels, leaving the needs of other diaspora groups largely unaddressed and the country's broader socioeconomic potential untapped.

The document examines how Islamic charity, specifically zakat, intersects with migrant remittances and organized diaspora development efforts among Pakistani-origin Muslims in Oslo. It argues that these religious motivations create lasting transnational ties across generations but remain largely invisible or misunderstood by mainstream Norwegian society and the Global North's development sector. The authors suggest a need for greater recognition of religious frameworks in development and a critical re-evaluation of who defines 'development' activities.