Patterns of Peacemaking

The document analyzes international mediation as a tool for peacemaking, noting that while it has become more common since the Cold War—particularly for interstate conflicts—it is underutilized in civil wars. It highlights a geographical bias toward Europe and the Middle East and a trend toward the regionalization of mediation through organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS. While mediation significantly increases the likelihood of short-term settlements, the authors find no evidence of consistent long-term positive effects on durable peace.

• International mediation has increased since the end of the Cold War, especially for interstate conflicts and crises. In the 1980s, 35 percent of such conflicts received mediation, rising to approximately 50 percent in the 1990s and early 2000s.
• Mediation is significantly less common in civil wars than in interstate conflicts. In the 1990s and 2000s, only 27 percent of civil-war-years were mediated. When accounting for multiple conflict groups, the proportion of mediated sub-conflicts dropped from 28 percent in the 1990s to 22 percent in the 2000s.
• There is a distinct geographical imbalance in mediation efforts. Europe and the Middle East receive the highest proportion of mediation relative to their number of conflicts, while Asia, particularly East Asia, receives the lowest level of third-party mediation relative to its proportion of conflicts.
• While the UN and individual states remain the primary mediators, there is a growing trend toward the regionalization and institutionalization of mediation. Regional organizations such as the African Union, ECOWAS, and the OSCE are increasingly providing mediation functions within their domains.
• Mediation is highly effective in achieving short-term results. One analysis found that the probability of a negotiated settlement is six times higher when third-party intermediaries are present. Since 1989, positive results were achieved in nearly 80 percent of mediation cases.
• There is no evidence that international mediation produces a consistent, positive long-term effect on durable peace. Some research suggests a negative relationship, potentially because mediators create temporary artificial incentives that leave agreements vulnerable once the mediator's leverage is removed.

APA

Svensson, I., & Lundgren, M. (2015). Patterns of Peacemaking. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f082b938-ee1d-4726-9645-d322ee5343da/Svensson Lundgren - Patterns of Peacemaking Conflict Trends 4-2015.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Svensson, Isak, and Magnus Lundgren. Patterns of Peacemaking. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2015. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f082b938-ee1d-4726-9645-d322ee5343da/Svensson Lundgren - Patterns of Peacemaking Conflict Trends 4-2015.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Svensson |first1=Isak |last2=Lundgren |first2=Magnus |title=Patterns of Peacemaking |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=April 2015 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f082b938-ee1d-4726-9645-d322ee5343da/Svensson Lundgren - Patterns of Peacemaking Conflict Trends 4-2015.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{svensson2015patterns, author = {Svensson, Isak and Lundgren, Magnus}, title = {{Patterns of Peacemaking}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2015}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/f082b938-ee1d-4726-9645-d322ee5343da/Svensson Lundgren - Patterns of Peacemaking Conflict Trends 4-2015.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }