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The document argues that standard lockdown measures are often impractical and potentially more damaging than COVID-19 in Africa due to high poverty levels, weak democratic institutions, and a large informal economy. It highlights risks such as the erosion of democratic processes, food insecurity, and a disproportionate burden on women. The author advocates for localized, flexible responses and calls for wealthier Northern states to provide debt cancellations and aid to prevent regional instability.

Turkey's response to COVID-19 combined travel restrictions, selective lockdowns, and high testing capacity, supported by a young population and a developed healthcare system. However, the document notes that official statistics may be unreliable due to limited freedom of expression and government control over information. Vulnerable groups, including migrants and the Kurdish population in the southeast, faced specific challenges regarding healthcare access and information dissemination. Economically, the government implemented a USD 15.4 billion stimulus package to mitigate the pandemic's impact and stabilize the economy.

The PRIO Conflict Recurrence Database reveals that approximately half of all conflict episodes between 1989 and 2018 recurred, often driven by the same or overlapping grievances. The analysis indicates that while actors may change—with new groups emerging or alliances forming—the underlying issues frequently persist, suggesting that peacebuilding efforts often fail to address the root causes of violence. The data shows a high frequency of rapid recurrence, with 90% of recurring conflicts returning within eight years.

The document examines the erosion of the EU's longstanding consensus on a two-state solution for the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It highlights how internal divisions—exemplified by the opposing positions of Sweden and Hungary, and the alignment of the Visegrád Four with the Israeli government—undermine the EU's capacity for a concerted foreign policy. Despite possessing a wide array of policy tools to pressure both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority, the authors argue that the EU's risk-averse nature and complex structure make significant policy shifts unlikely, leaving the bloc 'stuck in the logic of Oslo'.

The document argues that the Yemen War has evolved from a binary conflict into a complex, multi-faceted struggle involving numerous internal splinter groups and external state actors beyond just Iran and Saudi Arabia. It highlights the fragmentation of southern independence movements, the unreliability of humanitarian data due to lack of access, and the marginalization of women and youth in peace processes. The authors recommend a multi-track, inclusive peacebuilding strategy that increases transparency in aid and integrates women and youth into negotiations.

The document argues that while large youth cohorts are not inherently a security threat, they increase the risk of armed conflict and terrorism when combined with high unemployment, poor governance, and economic marginalization. In the Sahel, particularly Mali, these demographic pressures, coupled with environmental degradation and resource scarcity, create conditions where disenfranchised youth are more susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups. The author recommends a holistic approach focusing on demographic policies to lower fertility and political and economic reforms to boost youth employment, rather than relying solely on military solutions.

The report analyzes the fragmented state of Libya, characterized by a stalemate between General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) and the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). It details how the conflict has evolved into a proxy war involving regional powers like Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and Russia, and examines the resulting humanitarian crises, including mass migration and the resurgence of jihadist networks. Additionally, it highlights the geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean triggered by a maritime delimitation agreement between Turkey and the GNA.

The report analyzes the failure of diplomatic efforts in Syria, including the Geneva and Astana processes, and maps the fragmented nature of the Syrian Sunni opposition. It details how external actors—primarily Russia, Turkey, and Iran—have established spheres of influence and proxy networks that complicate a sustainable political transition. The authors argue that the peace process has been largely detached from the Syrian people, exacerbated by the rise of extremist groups, the Kurdish issue, and a severe economic crisis compounded by COVID-19.

The study evaluates the relationship between three drought indicators and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (1989-2014) using multilevel logistic regression. It finds that while all three measures are positively associated with conflict, the strength of the relationship increases as the measure moves from meteorological (SPEI) to agricultural (NDVI) and finally to socio-economic (EM-DAT) impacts. Specifically, socio-economic droughts approximately double the odds of experiencing violent conflict. However, the author notes that the NDVI effect may be driven by spatial correlation—where conflicts and vegetation loss occur in the same land types—rather than a direct temporal causal link. The study concludes that preventing meteorological droughts from escalating into socio-economic disasters could potentially reduce communal conflict risks.

The document examines the rise of the AUB Secular Club (ASC) as a case study for the broader secular student movement in Lebanon. It argues that while partisan clubs rely on material resources and clientelist patronage from national political parties, the ASC has leveraged a potent anti-establishment frame and immaterial resources—such as human and cultural capital—to win student council seats. The study highlights the contrast between the 'vertical' networks of sectarian loyalty and the 'horizontal' mobilization of the secular movement, suggesting that university campuses serve as laboratories for nonsectarian political representation in a deeply divided society.

The research examines how the effect of anomalous rainfall (excess and scarce) on violent, state-based conflict varies based on societal vulnerability factors. Using a causal forest model on global grid-cell data, the author finds that while rainfall variability generally has a small effect on conflict, this effect is context-specific. Scarce rainfall is more likely to increase conflict risk in communities with high agricultural employment and poor governance (low SHDI and GDP). Excess rainfall's effect is more complex, showing higher risk in areas with high population density, low globalization, low democracy, and low GDP, but contrary to expectations, it showed smaller effects in areas with high political exclusion or greater distance to the capital.

The report examines the technical, legal, and strategic landscape of counter-unmanned aircraft systems (C-UAS), arguing that current technology is often ineffective and hindered by outdated legal frameworks. It assesses specific risks to Norwegian infrastructure, such as airports and oil platforms, and explores how Norway can leverage EU and NATO initiatives to enhance its capabilities while avoiding the over-securitization of civilian airspace.

The study uses a spatially and temporally disaggregated research design to analyze protest events in Africa and Asia. It finds that mild government repression of nonviolent protests typically leads to violent escalation, whereas repression of violent protests tends to encourage a shift back to nonviolent means. Crucially, the research demonstrates that the level of organization acts as a moderator; organized protests are more effective at maintaining nonviolent discipline and resisting the escalatory effects of repression than disorganized ones.

The report argues that a settlement of the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by creating economies of scale and opening access to the EU and Turkish markets. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) forecasting, the authors estimate that a solution could increase overall GDP by €11 billion to €17.4 billion over 20 years and raise GDP per capita by €6,800 to €11,000. Key growth sectors include wholesale and retail trade, tourism, construction, and professional services. The report also provides a framework for financing property compensation and emphasizes that closing the gender gap and establishing inclusive institutions are critical for maximizing the peace dividend.

The report argues that a solution to the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by expanding market access, increasing productivity, and attracting investment. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) methodologies, the authors project that a settlement could increase the total GDP by between €11 billion and €17.4 billion over 20 years compared to the status quo. Key growth drivers include tourism, construction, shipping, and professional services. The report also emphasizes that maximizing this dividend requires strong inclusive institutions, technical transition periods, and a concerted effort to close the gender gap in the workforce, particularly in the Turkish Cypriot community. Additionally, it assesses the financial viability of property restitution, suggesting that a significant portion of compensation costs could be covered by the increased state revenues generated by the peace dividend.

The report argues that a political solution to the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by creating a unified market, improving productivity, and opening access to the EU and Turkish markets. Using sectoral and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) methodologies, the authors estimate that a solution could increase the total GDP by between 11 billion and 17.4 billion Euros by 2040 compared to the status quo. Key growth drivers include tourism, construction, shipping, and professional services, with wholesale and retail trade expected to benefit most from chain effects. The report also emphasizes that maximizing this dividend requires strong institutions, gender equality, and a sustainable financing model for property compensation.

The SDG16DI 2020 Global Report argues that official data from National Statistical Offices (NSOs) are often insufficient, unreliable, or unavailable for monitoring SDG16 targets, particularly regarding conflict-related deaths, corruption, and press freedom. It highlights the critical role of 'non-official data'—produced by NGOs and academic institutions—in filling these gaps. The report provides case studies on sex-disaggregated data for violent deaths, trade-related illicit financial flows in developing nations, corruption and vote-buying in Latin America and the Caribbean, and the use of expert-based indices to measure representative decision-making. It also notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated governance challenges while simultaneously reducing the capacity of NSOs to collect data.

The report uses data from 12,000 interviews in PDET zones to evaluate the implementation of the Colombian Peace Agreement. It finds a divided population, with 38% satisfied and 58% dissatisfied. While the influence of armed groups has decreased from 55% to 30%, significant security challenges remain, including the assassination of social leaders. Trust in state institutions is low, while trust in the Catholic Church remains high. The report highlights the positive perception of illicit crop substitution and the work of transitional justice bodies, but notes a deep lack of trust in former FARC combatants and the FARC political party.

The paper examines the relationship between internal armed conflict and horizontal inequality, using regional disparities in human development as a proxy. The authors find that high-intensity, long-duration conflicts (over 1,000 battle deaths and lasting more than 5 years) are associated with significantly higher levels of horizontal inequality in infant mortality, wealth, and education. This inequality persists for many years, with declines only appearing 10-15 years after conflict termination. Sub-national analysis suggests that regions directly exposed to fighting suffer more, further widening the gap. Preliminary findings indicate that neither peace agreements nor UN peacekeeping operations significantly mitigate these increases in horizontal inequality.

The author reflects on his journey from a rejected Starting Grant to a successful Consolidator Grant, arguing that the key to success lies in crafting a simple, surprising, and true narrative hook that contrasts the proposed research with conventional approaches. He advises applicants to sequence their writing by starting with the narrative hook, developing a feasible research design based on available resources, and preparing the CV and track record early. The author emphasizes the importance of soliciting frank feedback to overcome the 'curse of knowledge' and warns against blindly following external consultants. Finally, he acknowledges the inherent arbitrariness and subjectivity of the evaluation process, suggesting that the intensive writing process itself is a valuable scholarly exercise regardless of the funding outcome.