Civil wars trap countries in recurring cycles of violent conflict

The PRIO Conflict Recurrence Database reveals that approximately half of all conflict episodes between 1989 and 2018 recurred, often driven by the same or overlapping grievances. The analysis indicates that while actors may change—with new groups emerging or alliances forming—the underlying issues frequently persist, suggesting that peacebuilding efforts often fail to address the root causes of violence. The data shows a high frequency of rapid recurrence, with 90% of recurring conflicts returning within eight years.

• Between 1989 and 2018, approximately 50% of all conflict episodes recurred, with nearly 20% recurring three or more times. When analyzed by actor dyads, nearly 35% of episodes recurred, and just over 8% had three or more episodes.
• The majority of recurring conflicts are driven by persistent grievances; 64% recur over the same issues and 27% over overlapping issues. Only a small minority (3%) recur over new incompatibilities, and less than 1% are unrelated to previous issues of contention.
• Conflict recurrence typically happens quickly, with 90% of recurring conflicts returning within eight years and nearly 50% recurring within two years.
• Recurring conflicts often involve changes in the participants; nearly 17% of recurring episodes involve partially different actors, and 3% involve entirely new actors. This is exemplified by the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has been continuous since 2010 and involved eight different actors across 10 dyad-episodes.
• The conflict in Colombia demonstrates a pattern of continuous violence from 1989 to 2018 despite various peace agreements and the activity of different non-state groups, including FARC, EPL-Megateo, ELN, and FARC dissidents.
• The authors argue that the high rate of recurrence is a result of peacebuilding failures to address the 'heart of the conflicts,' noting that disarming groups is insufficient if the underlying grievances remain.

APA

Jarland, J., Nygård, H. M., Hermansen, E., Larsen, V. B., & Gates, S. (2020). Civil wars trap countries in recurring cycles of violent conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/31a7a3ea-fa31-43cf-8d5f-e2cf5b73e59b/Jarland et al - How Should We Understand Recurring Conflicts Conflict Trends 3-2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Jarland, Julie, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Emilie Hermansen, Vilde Bergstad Larsen, and Scott Gates. Civil wars trap countries in recurring cycles of violent conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2020. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/31a7a3ea-fa31-43cf-8d5f-e2cf5b73e59b/Jarland et al - How Should We Understand Recurring Conflicts Conflict Trends 3-2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{jarland2020civil, author = {Jarland, Julie and Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv and Hermansen, Emilie and Larsen, Vilde Bergstad and Gates, Scott}, title = {{Civil wars trap countries in recurring cycles of violent conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/31a7a3ea-fa31-43cf-8d5f-e2cf5b73e59b/Jarland et al - How Should We Understand Recurring Conflicts Conflict Trends 3-2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }