Youth Bulges in the Sahel: A Demographic Threat?

The document argues that while large youth cohorts are not inherently a security threat, they increase the risk of armed conflict and terrorism when combined with high unemployment, poor governance, and economic marginalization. In the Sahel, particularly Mali, these demographic pressures, coupled with environmental degradation and resource scarcity, create conditions where disenfranchised youth are more susceptible to recruitment by terrorist groups. The author recommends a holistic approach focusing on demographic policies to lower fertility and political and economic reforms to boost youth employment, rather than relying solely on military solutions.

• There is a correlation between 'youth bulges'—large youthful age cohorts—and an increased risk of political violence, armed conflict, and terrorism, often driven by structural issues like high unemployment and political and economic marginalization.
• Research indicates that countries where the youth population exceeds 35% of the total adult population face a 150% higher risk of civil war compared to countries at the OECD average.
• In the Sahel, the combination of large youth cohorts and pressure on basic social services, land, and water has contributed to the rise of extremist terrorism and armed conflicts.
• Mali serves as a case study where high fertility rates (5.92 per woman) and a large youth population, combined with poor governance and economic instability, have led to increased poverty and the recruitment of marginalized youth into terrorist groups to finance social needs.
• Current security strategies in the Sahel, including military-focused frameworks like the G5 Sahel, have had limited success; a more holistic approach addressing structural socio-economic causes is required.
• Large youth populations can be leveraged for development if governments implement policies to reduce fertility and create economic and political opportunities, as seen in the 'four Asian Tigers'.

APA

Sakor, B. Z. (2020). Youth Bulges in the Sahel: A Demographic Threat? Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d1f0ca68-cac8-4fd7-9377-f85b19bd716a/Sakor Bintu Zahara - Youth Bulges in the Sahel A Demographic Threat PRIO Policy Brief 1-2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Sakor, Bintu Zahara. Youth Bulges in the Sahel: A Demographic Threat? Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2020. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d1f0ca68-cac8-4fd7-9377-f85b19bd716a/Sakor Bintu Zahara - Youth Bulges in the Sahel A Demographic Threat PRIO Policy Brief 1-2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sakor |first1=Bintu Zahara |title=Youth Bulges in the Sahel: A Demographic Threat? |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=January 2020 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d1f0ca68-cac8-4fd7-9377-f85b19bd716a/Sakor Bintu Zahara - Youth Bulges in the Sahel A Demographic Threat PRIO Policy Brief 1-2020.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sakor2020youth, author = {Sakor, Bintu Zahara}, title = {{Youth Bulges in the Sahel: A Demographic Threat?}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2020}, month = jan, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/d1f0ca68-cac8-4fd7-9377-f85b19bd716a/Sakor Bintu Zahara - Youth Bulges in the Sahel A Demographic Threat PRIO Policy Brief 1-2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }