A House Divided: EU Policy on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict

The document examines the erosion of the EU's longstanding consensus on a two-state solution for the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It highlights how internal divisions—exemplified by the opposing positions of Sweden and Hungary, and the alignment of the Visegrád Four with the Israeli government—undermine the EU's capacity for a concerted foreign policy. Despite possessing a wide array of policy tools to pressure both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority, the authors argue that the EU's risk-averse nature and complex structure make significant policy shifts unlikely, leaving the bloc 'stuck in the logic of Oslo'.

• The viability of a two-state solution is severely compromised by physical and political divisions between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as Israeli settlement expansion. The Jewish settler population in the occupied West Bank is approximately 650,000 and is increasing, with potential annexation of Area C (about 60% of the West Bank) and the Jordan Valley further threatening the possibility of a Palestinian state.
• The EU's internal consensus on the two-state solution is eroding, with member states acting as outliers. Sweden is noted as the pro-Palestinian outlier, having recognized the State of Palestine in 2014, while Hungary is the pro-Israeli outlier, supporting the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital and frequently vetoing EU statements.
• The Visegrád Four (V4)—comprising the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland—often align more closely with the Israeli and US governments than with the traditional EU position on issues such as the Trump peace plan and the labelling of settlement products. This allows Israel to undermine EU consensus by negotiating with individual member states.
• Internal divisions prevent the EU from issuing unified official policy statements. For example, a February 2020 statement by High Representative Josep Borrell regarding the US peace plan represented his office rather than the EU as a whole because it was opposed by member states, most notably Hungary.
• The EU possesses a comprehensive set of policy tools to address the conflict, but is unlikely to use them. Options for Palestine include recognizing a Palestinian state based on 1967 lines, applying stricter funding conditionality to the Palestinian Authority, and increasing aid to Area C. Options for Israel include enhancing the differentiation policy for settlement products, demanding compensation for demolished buildings, supporting ICC jurisdiction, or suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
• The EU is unlikely to significantly change its policy due to its risk-averse nature, its slow-moving institutional structure (described as a 'supertanker'), and a tendency to prioritize neighborhood stability over contentious measures. Consequently, the EU remains 'stuck in the logic of Oslo', disconnected from the reality on the ground.

APA

Martins, B. O., Waage, H. H., Jensehaugen, J., & Palik, J. (2020). A House Divided: EU Policy on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2071cf4f-02cb-499d-8a9a-25e3116005cc/Jensehaugen et al - A House Divided EU Policy on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict MidEast Policy Brief 02-2020.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Martins, Bruno Oliveira, Hilde Henriksen Waage, Jørgen Jensehaugen, and Júlia Palik. A House Divided: EU Policy on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2020. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2071cf4f-02cb-499d-8a9a-25e3116005cc/Jensehaugen et al - A House Divided EU Policy on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict MidEast Policy Brief 02-2020.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Martins |first1=Bruno Oliveira |last2=Waage |first2=Hilde Henriksen |last3=Jensehaugen |first3=Jørgen |last4=Palik |first4=Júlia |title=A House Divided: EU Policy on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=February 2020 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2071cf4f-02cb-499d-8a9a-25e3116005cc/Jensehaugen et al - A House Divided EU Policy on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict MidEast Policy Brief 02-2020.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{martins2020house, author = {Martins, Bruno Oliveira and Waage, Hilde Henriksen and Jensehaugen, Jørgen and Palik, Júlia}, title = {{A House Divided: EU Policy on the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2020}, month = feb, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2071cf4f-02cb-499d-8a9a-25e3116005cc/Jensehaugen et al - A House Divided EU Policy on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict MidEast Policy Brief 02-2020.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }