The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region

The report analyzes the fragmented state of Libya, characterized by a stalemate between General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) and the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). It details how the conflict has evolved into a proxy war involving regional powers like Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and Russia, and examines the resulting humanitarian crises, including mass migration and the resurgence of jihadist networks. Additionally, it highlights the geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean triggered by a maritime delimitation agreement between Turkey and the GNA.

• The Libyan conflict is characterized by a military stalemate between the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls much of the east and south.
• The conflict has evolved into a proxy war where regional and international powers provide military and economic support to opposing factions to advance their own strategic interests.
• General Haftar's LNA receives significant military and economic aid from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, as well as support from Russia, France, and Saudi Arabia, primarily due to his anti-Islamist stance.
• The GNA is primarily supported by Turkey and Qatar, with Turkey providing military equipment, drone strikes, and military consultants and trainers.
• Libya serves as a critical transit point for migrants from the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa heading to Europe, with up to 90 percent of those crossing the Mediterranean embarking from Libya.
• The security vacuum in Libya allows jihadist networks like ISIS and Al-Qaeda to regroup, particularly in the southern desert and the hinterland of Sirte, posing a threat to neighboring Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Chad.
• A November 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Turkey and the GNA regarding maritime Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) has exacerbated regional tensions, specifically with Greece, Egypt, and Cyprus.
• Local militias in Libya are incentivized to maintain the fragmented status quo because being a paramilitary is profitable, with fighters receiving government salaries through the Central Bank and accessing illicit trade revenues.

APA

Fredriksen, S. N., & Tziarras, Z. (2020). The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92da1ad8-09a1-4f27-8908-e11fb7b109b7/4 2020 The Libya Conflict and its Security.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Fredriksen, Sigvart Nordhov, and Zenonas Tziarras. The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2020. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92da1ad8-09a1-4f27-8908-e11fb7b109b7/4 2020 The Libya Conflict and its Security.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fredriksen |first1=Sigvart Nordhov |last2=Tziarras |first2=Zenonas |title=The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2020 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92da1ad8-09a1-4f27-8908-e11fb7b109b7/4 2020 The Libya Conflict and its Security.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fredriksen2020libya, author = {Fredriksen, Sigvart Nordhov and Tziarras, Zenonas}, title = {{The Libya Conflict and its Implications for the Broader Region}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2020}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/92da1ad8-09a1-4f27-8908-e11fb7b109b7/4 2020 The Libya Conflict and its Security.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }