Organization, Repression, and the Violent Escalation and De-Escalation of Nonviolent Protest

The study uses a spatially and temporally disaggregated research design to analyze protest events in Africa and Asia. It finds that mild government repression of nonviolent protests typically leads to violent escalation, whereas repression of violent protests tends to encourage a shift back to nonviolent means. Crucially, the research demonstrates that the level of organization acts as a moderator; organized protests are more effective at maintaining nonviolent discipline and resisting the escalatory effects of repression than disorganized ones.

• Mild government repression of nonviolent protests is positively associated with an increase in the proportion of violent protest in the following week.
• Government repression of violent protests has a de-escalatory effect, leading protesters to switch to nonviolent tactics in the subsequent week.
• Higher levels of protest organization are consistently associated with a decrease in the proportion of violent events, suggesting that organization helps maintain nonviolent discipline.
• The effect of government repression on violent escalation is conditional upon the level of organization; high levels of organization moderate and can potentially nullify the escalatory impact of mild repression.
• The substitution effect of repressing violent protest is more pronounced in environments with higher levels of organization, leading to a stronger decrease in violence.
• Structural variables such as GDP per capita, regime type, and regime strength have little to no explanatory power regarding short-term tactical shifts during protests, although poverty and high unemployment are associated with violent escalation.
• The substitution effects of repression are primarily observed in the immediate short term (one week), with results becoming mixed or insignificant when looking at lags of two or three weeks.

APA

Larsen, V. B. (2020). Organization, Repression, and the Violent Escalation and De-Escalation of Nonviolent Protest. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6e1634d2-a55a-4da9-9af7-8070796703a8/Organization-repression-and-escalation-protest_VBL.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Larsen, Vilde Bergstad. Organization, Repression, and the Violent Escalation and De-Escalation of Nonviolent Protest. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2020. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6e1634d2-a55a-4da9-9af7-8070796703a8/Organization-repression-and-escalation-protest_VBL.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Larsen |first1=Vilde Bergstad |title=Organization, Repression, and the Violent Escalation and De-Escalation of Nonviolent Protest |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2020 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6e1634d2-a55a-4da9-9af7-8070796703a8/Organization-repression-and-escalation-protest_VBL.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{larsen2020organization, author = {Larsen, Vilde Bergstad}, title = {{Organization, Repression, and the Violent Escalation and De-Escalation of Nonviolent Protest}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2020}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6e1634d2-a55a-4da9-9af7-8070796703a8/Organization-repression-and-escalation-protest_VBL.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }