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The Climate Ambition Summit resulted in 45 announcements of new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including ambitious targets from the EU, UK, and Denmark. However, the analysis finds that these commitments often rely on existing policies, remain conditional on unmet financial promises to developing nations, and fall short of the urgent emission cuts required by science to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The study uses a spatially and temporally disaggregated research design to analyze protest events in Africa and Asia. It finds that mild government repression of nonviolent protests typically leads to violent escalation, whereas repression of violent protests tends to encourage a shift back to nonviolent means. Crucially, the research demonstrates that the level of organization acts as a moderator; organized protests are more effective at maintaining nonviolent discipline and resisting the escalatory effects of repression than disorganized ones.