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This report outlines the projected outcomes of the 'Algerian Dream' scenario for Algeria by 2040, a simulation where holistic reforms in governance, economic diversification, and policy interventions lead to significant growth compared to a 'Current Path' projection.

This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.

This report analyzes the human and economic development prospects of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) up to 2050. It contrasts a 'Current Path' scenario, characterized by persistent poverty, poor governance, and infrastructure deficits, with a 'comprehensive scenario' involving targeted interventions in governance, infrastructure, human capital, agriculture, and economic diversification.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines how violent extremist groups, specifically JNIM and ISGS, exploit illicit activities in northern Benin to secure financial, logistical, and human resources. It documents established links to fuel smuggling, illegal hunting, and drug trafficking, while identifying emerging risks associated with artisanal gold mining and arms trafficking.

This report examines the relationship between the African Union (AU) and civil society organisations (CSOs) over the last 20 years, focusing on governance, peace, and security. While the AU has established institutional frameworks to facilitate engagement, the report finds that CSO participation remains unpredictable and often restricted, particularly in political processes and high-level summits. It highlights the critical technical and research contributions of CSOs while identifying systemic barriers, including shrinking civic space in member states and bureaucratic hurdles within AU organs like ECOSOCC.

This research paper examines the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the West African Sahel, focusing on Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. It identifies specific tri-border 'nodes' that facilitate trafficking and analyzes the socio-economic and security drivers, key actors, and the impact of these flows on regional stability and local economies.

The report examines the complex interplay of governance, peace, and security in the Horn of Africa, highlighting a shift from interstate to intra-state conflict. It analyzes how structural drivers—including climate change, demographic pressures, and technological advances—interact with political instability and geopolitical competition from global and Middle Eastern powers. The document evaluates the effectiveness of multilateral bodies like IGAD, the AU, and the UN, noting their struggles to maintain relevance amidst hardening state sovereignty and institutional fragility.

This report analyzes the demographic trends and development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan—up to 2040, focusing on population growth, fertility rates, the potential for a demographic dividend, and urbanization patterns.

This report analyzes the demographic profile and future projections for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) up to 2050, highlighting the challenges of high fertility rates, rapid urbanization, and the delayed achievement of a demographic dividend.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the education system of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), detailing its structure, progress in literacy and gender parity, and the persistent challenges of low quality and high dropout rates. It highlights the impact of the 2019 implementation of free primary education and the role of international funding from the World Bank to improve human capital by 2050.

This special report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes poverty and income inequality in the Horn of Africa, forecasting trends through 2040. It highlights significant disparities in multidimensional and monetary poverty across the region, the impact of conflict and governance on economic stability, and the role of income inequality in poverty reduction.

This report examines the governance challenges in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting systemic corruption, the failure of decentralisation, and the country's status as an 'anocracy' with a hybrid regime that lacks substantive democratic legitimacy.

This report examines the agricultural potential and challenges of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) leading up to 2050, highlighting a significant gap between the country's vast arable land and its current food insecurity and import dependence.

This report analyzes poverty and inequality trends in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), highlighting that the country has one of the highest numbers of people living in extreme poverty globally and is unlikely to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals on its current trajectory.

This report examines the health sector of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), detailing a system in near-collapse due to conflict and mismanagement, while projecting health outcomes and epidemiological shifts toward 2050.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Tunisia's development trajectory toward 2040. It examines the country's current economic stagnation, demographic shifts, and vulnerabilities to climate change, while proposing three alternative policy pathways—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to unlock the nation's human capital and improve governance.

This report compares three potential development scenarios for Tunisia leading up to 2040—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—against a 'Current Path' baseline. It evaluates their impacts on GDP, poverty, inequality, food security, and carbon emissions, highlighting that while all scenarios improve economic outcomes, they present different trade-offs regarding environmental sustainability and food independence.

This report section analyzes the health trajectory of Algeria leading up to 2040, highlighting a transition from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the challenges of an ageing population.

This report section analyzes Algeria's demographic trends and their implications for economic growth and social stability up to 2040. It highlights a declining fertility rate, a shifting dependency ratio, and the challenges of high unemployment and brain drain, while noting that a shrinking youth bulge may reduce the likelihood of social instability.

This special report from the Institute for Security Studies examines poverty, inequality, and the role of government subsidies in Tunisia's development pathways toward 2040. It highlights a projected increase in poverty through 2030, significant disparities in rural areas and among children, and the fiscal instability caused by inefficient energy subsidies.