Towards a climate resilient Agenda 2063

The document assesses the vulnerabilities of Africa's Agenda 2063 framework to escalating climate change, noting that the original 2015 plan relied heavily on fossil fuel assets now at risk of becoming stranded. It highlights a significant 'adaptation deficit' and an economic impact where climate change reduces GDP per capita growth by 5% to 15%. The brief warns that achieving Agenda 2063 goals could release an additional 297 million tons of carbon by 2043, potentially increasing Africa's share of global emissions to 12%. It provides specific recommendations for national governments, Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and the African Union to pivot toward climate-resilient agriculture, renewable energy, and coordinated transboundary water and mobility strategies.

• Agenda 2063 was developed with a heavy reliance on fossil fuel assets valued at approximately $10 trillion, which now face the risk of becoming stranded assets due to the global transition to a low-carbon economy and new trade barriers.
• Climate change is significantly hindering Africa's economic progress, with the African Development Bank reporting a loss of between 5% and 15% of GDP per capita growth due to climate impacts.
• The pursuit of Agenda 2063's development goals is projected to increase carbon emissions, with an estimated 297 million additional tons of carbon released by 2043, potentially raising Africa's contribution to global emissions to 12% by that year and 30% by 2063.
• Africa faces a disproportionate burden of climate costs due to the increasing frequency of storms and floods, which are accelerating faster than in any other global region, compounded by inadequate infrastructure and governance.
• South Africa specifically holds $17.1 billion in institutional investments within its fossil fuel value chain, illustrating the scale of financial exposure to the energy transition.

APA

Dahir, I., Gulati, M., & Naidoo, D. (2023). Towards a climate resilient Agenda 2063. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-187.pdf

Chicago

Dahir, Ilhan, Manisha Gulati, and Dhesigen Naidoo. Towards a climate resilient Agenda 2063. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-187.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Dahir |first1=Ilhan |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |last3=Naidoo |first3=Dhesigen |title=Towards a climate resilient Agenda 2063 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-187.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dahir2023towards, author = {Dahir, Ilhan and Gulati, Manisha and Naidoo, Dhesigen}, title = {{Towards a climate resilient Agenda 2063}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb-187.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }