Coups are back in Africa

The document analyzes the 'epidemic' of military takeovers in Africa, identifying governance dysfunction, democratic decline, civil-military tensions, and Islamist insurgencies as primary drivers. It argues that the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs) have relied on reactive, inconsistent, and ineffective blanket sanctions that fail to deter coup plotters. The author recommends a shift toward prevention, targeted sanctions, and the strengthening of civil-military relations and democratic legitimacy.

• There has been a dramatic increase in military coups across Africa since 2020, with nine successful takeovers occurring in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Gabon, and Niger.
• The resurgence of coups is driven by several circumstantial factors, including the poor governance of elected leaders, a decline in the quality of democracy, tensions between civilian governments and the military, and the inability to contain Islamist insurgencies in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.
• The African Union and regional economic communities have primarily employed reactive measures, such as blanket economic sanctions and suspensions, which the document asserts no longer deter military takeovers.
• The enforcement of anti-coup norms by the African Union is inconsistent, with some takeovers being swiftly punished while others, such as the event in Chad, are not recognized as coups or face delayed responses.
• A lack of coherence exists between the African Union and regional economic communities regarding the application of 'subsidiarity', exemplified by the differing responses of the AU and ECOWAS to the coup in Niger.
• There is a growing trend of solidarity among coup plotters, suggesting an increasing movement among military personnel in favor of military rule across the continent.
• The document highlights a chronic history of military dominance in certain states; for example, Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Niger collectively have 116 years of military rule and 88 years of military leaders transitioning to civilian administrations over 316 years of independence.

APA

Kinkoh, H. (2023). Coups are back in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-186.pdf

Chicago

Kinkoh, Hubert. Coups are back in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-186.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kinkoh |first1=Hubert |title=Coups are back in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-186.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kinkoh2023coups, author = {Kinkoh, Hubert}, title = {{Coups are back in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PB-186.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }