Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

This report outlines the projected outcomes of the 'Algerian Dream' scenario for Algeria by 2040, a simulation where holistic reforms in governance, economic diversification, and policy interventions lead to significant growth compared to a 'Current Path' projection.

• Under the 'Algerian Dream' scenario, Algeria's economy is projected to be €103.2 billion larger by 2040 than it would be under the 'Current Path'. This growth is accompanied by an increase in per capita income of nearly 18.5%, which translates to Algerians being approximately US$2,652 wealthier in 2040 compared to the Current Path.
• The scenario predicts a substantial improvement in food security by 2040, with import dependence as a percentage of net demand falling by over 17 percentage points to approximately 27.4% relative to the Current Path. This shift is intended to reduce vulnerability to international supply chain disruptions and price shocks, while freeing up foreign reserves for other productive investments.
• Extreme poverty (measured at US$3.20 per person per day) is expected to decline after an initial increase caused by COVID-19 and a shift in investment toward productive sectors. By 2040, the 'Algerian Dream' scenario results in over 500,000 fewer people living in extreme poverty than the Current Path, with the poverty rate dropping to 0.08% of the population compared to 1% in the Current Path.
• The report projects a reduction in inequality and the size of the informal economy by 2040. The Gini coefficient index is expected to improve by 12.6%, falling from 0.246 in the Current Path to 0.215. Additionally, the informal economy's share of GDP is projected to drop to about 8.5%, down from over 16.5% in the Current Path, thereby expanding the national revenue base.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=8 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }