Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

The report simulates the 'Algerian Dream' scenario for Algeria by 2040, projecting significant economic growth, reduced poverty, and improved food security compared to a 'Current Path'. Key outcomes include a larger economy, lower import dependence for food, and a reduced informal sector driven by diversification away from hydrocarbons and improved governance.

• Under the 'Algerian Dream' scenario, Algeria's economy is projected to be €103.2 billion larger by 2040 than under the 'Current Path', with per capita income increasing by nearly 18.5%, making citizens approximately US$2,652 wealthier.
• The scenario predicts a substantial improvement in food security, with import dependence as a percentage of net demand falling to roughly 27.4% by 2040, a reduction of over 17 percentage points relative to the Current Path.
• Extreme poverty is expected to decline significantly by 2040, with the poverty rate dropping to 0.08% of the population compared to 1% in the Current Path, representing over 500,000 fewer people living in poverty.
• The scenario projects a reduction in inequality and the size of the informal economy; the Gini coefficient index improves by 12.6% (from 0.246 to 0.215), and the informal sector's share of GDP drops to approximately 8.5% from over 16.5%.
• The formalization of the economy and the expansion of the revenue base are attributed to greater economic freedom, good governance, and a strategy of diversifying the economy away from hydrocarbons.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=8 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=13-combined}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }