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228 documents from Basque Centre for Climate Change
Local air pollution and global climate change taxes: a distributional analysis
The study finds that taxes on local air pollutants are more regressive than those on climate change pollutants because they increase the prices of basic necessities, such as food and electricity, which occupy a larger share of low-income household budgets. While a CO2 tax was found to be nearly proportional across income deciles, the LAP tax disproportionately affected the poorest households. Revenue recycling through reduced social security contributions improved overall economic efficiency but tended to worsen the distributional equity, particularly for the GCC tax scenario.
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Document type: Research paper
DISCOUNTING THE VALUE OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY FOR POLICY MAKING
The policy brief argues that market discount rates are unsuitable for evaluating long-term environmental impacts and proposes the 'equivalency principle' to determine social discount rates. This principle assumes that undeveloped and developed land of identical attributes should provide equal utility to future generations. Using a case study of a proposed seaport in Pasaia, Basque Country, the authors demonstrate that applying this principle results in lower, site-specific discount rates (between 0.96% and 3%) that would lead to the rejection of the project, whereas a market rate of 11% would justify it in some scenarios.
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Document type: Policy brief
IPCC WGII FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT (AR5): EXPANDING THE SOLUTION SPACE FOR ADAPTATION
The document outlines the IPCC WGII AR5 findings, emphasizing that climate risk is a product of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. It advocates for a 'solution space' for adaptation that includes structural, institutional, and social measures, while noting that adaptation has limits and must be paired with strong mitigation to avoid irreversible tipping points.
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Document type: Policy brief
WARNING TO NAVIGATORS: IPCC REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
The document examines the IPCC's 2014 report on climate change mitigation, noting that global greenhouse gas emissions have accelerated despite existing climate plans. It argues that to limit temperature rise to 2°C, emissions must be reduced by 40-70% by 2050 and reach almost zero by 2100, requiring radical technological and institutional shifts. While the report finds these goals technically and economically feasible, it stresses the urgency of investments between 2010 and 2030 to avoid costly and risky negative emission technologies like large-scale biomass combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
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Document type: Policy brief
ALTERNATIVE TRAJECTORIES FOR DECARBONIZING URBAN TRANSPORTATION
The document argues that without major intervention, transportation carbon emissions will double by 2050. It identifies a combination of reduced passenger car demand, improved vehicle efficiency, increased electric vehicle adoption, and a decarbonized electricity grid (via renewables, nuclear, or CCS) as the necessary path to significant reductions. A case study based on a Spanish city with 360,000 inhabitants demonstrates that while modal shifts and fuel switches (like CNG or biodiesel) offer modest gains, the most aggressive reductions occur when these are paired with a transition to nuclear or CCS-equipped power generation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Decarbonising urban transportation
The research paper evaluates strategies to decarbonise urban transportation, focusing on modal shifts, fuel switching, and electricity decarbonisation. Using a Spanish urban area as a model, it finds that aggressive measures—including a 50% reduction in car demand, improved fuel economy, and a shift to nuclear or CCS-equipped power—are necessary to significantly lower emissions and health burdens from particulate matter.
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Document type: Research paper
EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF FOOD AND FEED AND HUMAN DIET SHIFTS ON FOOD SECURITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY: INTEGRATING SCALES
The document argues that the global agro-food system is increasingly inefficient due to a disconnection between crop production and livestock, driven by rising demands for animal protein and high rates of food waste. It highlights that international trade of food and feed has increased eightfold over the last 50 years, leading to significant nitrogen pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Using Spain as a primary example, the authors demonstrate how a shift from a Mediterranean diet to one rich in animal proteins has increased nitrogen pollution and created 'emission leakage,' where emissions associated with imported feed in non-Annex B countries exceed those from domestic production. The briefing suggests that reducing animal protein intake, decreasing food waste, and reconnecting crops with livestock are essential for global food security and environmental safety.
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Document type: Policy brief
Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS
The study analyzes the impact of partial CCS deployment in Europe by 2030, categorizing countries as pioneers or laggards based on their R&D projects and national roadmaps. Using a dispatch model, the authors find that the economic outcomes of pioneering are heterogeneous: while electricity suppliers in Poland, the UK, and the Netherlands may see increased producer surpluses, consumers in the UK could face higher wholesale prices due to the high cost of gas-fired CCS. Conversely, Romania is projected to experience lower wholesale prices and increased domestic production. The results suggest that being a pioneer does not automatically guarantee an advantage, as benefits are unevenly distributed between producers and consumers.
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Document type: Research paper
The economics of hydro-meteorological disasters: approaching the estimation of the total costs
The paper argues that traditional disaster assessments rely too heavily on direct tangible costs, neglecting indirect and intangible impacts. It proposes a 'total cost' framework comprising four quadrants: direct tangible, indirect tangible, direct intangible, and indirect intangible costs. The authors review market-based, non-market-based, and economic system modelling techniques, concluding that while no single method covers all cost categories across all scales, benefit transfer is a critical tool for making comprehensive total cost estimations accessible at meso and macro scales.
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Document type: Research paper
THE BASQUE ECOLOGICAL DEBT: GLOBAL SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY
The Basque Country exhibits a high resource dependency, with a Total Material Requirement of 108 tons per capita in 2004, 83% of which is imported. This consumption pattern drives significant environmental and social degradation abroad, including oil spills in Nigeria, deforestation for palm oil in Indonesia, toxic pollution from nickel mining in Russia, and watershed degradation from tin mining in Bolivia. The document argues that the economic prosperity of developed regions is linked to an unsustainable use of global resources and calls for a transformation in consumption and production patterns to meet basic human needs without exceeding planetary limits.
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Document type: Policy brief
Identifying social determinants of urban low carbon transitions: the case of energy transition in Bilbao, Basque Country
The research paper examines the cognitive dimensions of urban sustainability transitions (UST) in Bilbao, Spain, using the Q method to identify how stakeholder values and perceptions act as barriers or opportunities for decarbonization. The study identifies four distinct discourses among stakeholders: local followers, confidant visionaries, problem-solvers, and workaday sceptics. While there is a general consensus that energy consumption in the Basque Country is too high and fossil fuels are scarce, significant gaps exist between decision-makers and potential drivers of change. The authors argue that for cities to act as 'transition tractors' rather than mere actors, they must establish knowledge, discussion, and communication (KDC) platforms to link pragmatists, visionaries, and policymakers.
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Document type: Research paper
EVALUATION OF TWO ALTERNATIVE CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES
The analysis finds that CCS without EOR is currently unprofitable due to low carbon prices, while CCS combined with EOR and DSF storage can be profitable if oil prices remain above a specific threshold. The study highlights that high investment costs and energy efficiency losses at power plants create significant financial barriers, necessitating either high commodity prices or substantial government subsidies to incentivize early adoption.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Green Paradox and Learning-by-doing in the Renewable Energy Sector
The research examines the 'green paradox'—where climate policies may inadvertently accelerate fossil fuel extraction—within a two-period model that incorporates learning-by-doing (LBD) in the renewable energy sector. The authors find that while a present carbon tax consistently reduces current fossil fuel use, the impact of renewable energy subsidies is ambiguous and depends on the strength of the LBD effect. Specifically, large LBD effects can trigger the green paradox by significantly reducing future demand for fossil fuels, thereby incentivizing resource owners to increase extraction in the present. The paper concludes that a carbon tax is the most reliable tool for reducing immediate CO2 emissions, suggesting that tax revenues should only be used to fund subsidies if the LBD effect is small.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector
The research uses a production function based on a sample of 40 hydroelectric plants to model the relationship between runoff and revenue in Costa Rica. Projections for 2100 under IPCC scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 indicate a significant reduction in hydropower production, estimated between 41% and 43%. These changes translate to aggregate revenue losses ranging from 41% in the sustainable B1 scenario to 49% in the A1B scenario. The study also explores technological adaptation, finding that doubling installed capacity would be required to achieve a revenue increase of 3% to 18% under these climate scenarios.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Labelling in Domestic Appliances: the Spanish Market
The study analyzes the Spanish domestic appliance market in 2012 to determine the price premium for energy efficiency (EE) labels and the price elasticities of demand. Using a hedonic pricing model, the authors found that high energy efficiency labels lead to price premiums of 4.15% for washing machines, 12.63% for refrigerators, and 4.03% for dishwashers. The analysis also indicates that demand for high-efficiency appliances is more elastic than for low-efficiency ones across all three categories.
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Document type: Research paper
FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT: WHAT ARE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF PREVENTION?
The document argues that climate change increases flood risk through more intense and frequent extreme events, necessitating a shift from purely infrastructural defenses to a coordinated approach. Using the Ebro river basin as a case study, it demonstrates how spatial hydro-economic models can identify specific drivers of risk across different municipalities and sectors. The author advocates for a combination of institutional alerts, environmental river restoration, and private-sector self-protection to manage vulnerability and exposure.
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Document type: Policy brief
Evaluation of Two Alternative Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies: A Stochastic Model
The research paper assesses the economic viability of CCS technologies in the UK, specifically comparing CO2-EOR paired with DSF storage against standalone DSF storage. Using a stochastic model calibrated with UK futures market data for electricity, oil, and carbon allowances, the authors find that only the EOR-paired option is potentially profitable, provided long-term oil prices remain high. The study highlights that current carbon prices are insufficient to incentivize standalone CCS and that the option to delay investment increases the required 'trigger price' for oil to make immediate investment optimal.
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Document type: Research paper
Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies
The authors argue that conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) fails to account for the value of flexibility and the irreversibility of climatic events. By applying real option analysis to the DICER model, they incorporate the 'cost of lost flexibility' as a penalty function. Their results indicate that accounting for risk leads to a more aggressive mitigation pathway, reducing the optimal end-of-century temperature increase from approximately 2.5°C in deterministic scenarios to about 2.25°C.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: the Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency “Renove” Plan
The paper evaluates the Spanish "Renove" plan, which provides rebates for A+ labelled energy-efficient appliances. Using a model of close substitutes, the authors find that a standalone 80€ subsidy for dishwashers in the Basque Autonomous Community increases total market demand by 1.5%, leading to a "rebound effect" that increases the total energy bill by 197,399€ and costs the government over 1 M€. In contrast, a 40€ tax on non-efficient appliances reduces total appliance demand by 1.6%, generates approximately 0.8 M€ in revenue, and saves nearly 300,000€ in energy costs. The authors argue that combining taxes and subsidies can optimize outcomes; for example, a 40€ subsidy paired with a 20€ tax avoids a deficit, prevents the rebound effect, and reduces deadweight loss compared to single-instrument policies.
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Document type: Research paper
Development of a New modelling Framework to Estimate the Carbon Footprint from Basque Dairy Farms
The research introduces a modelling framework combining the NGAUGE field-scale model and a new LANDDAIRY farm-scale submodel to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Basque dairy farms. A case study of 17 farms in Bizkaia found mean total GHG emissions of 385 ± 175 t CO2-eq yr-1, with emissions per litre of energy-corrected milk ranging from 0.86 to 2.11 kg CO2-eq. The study identifies methane from enteric fermentation and emissions from purchased feed as the primary contributors to the carbon footprint, suggesting that purchased feed can serve as a proxy for estimating total farm emissions.
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Document type: Research paper