Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector

The research uses a production function based on a sample of 40 hydroelectric plants to model the relationship between runoff and revenue in Costa Rica. Projections for 2100 under IPCC scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 indicate a significant reduction in hydropower production, estimated between 41% and 43%. These changes translate to aggregate revenue losses ranging from 41% in the sustainable B1 scenario to 49% in the A1B scenario. The study also explores technological adaptation, finding that doubling installed capacity would be required to achieve a revenue increase of 3% to 18% under these climate scenarios.

• Climate change is projected to cause a significant decrease in hydropower production in Costa Rica by 2100, with estimated reductions between 41% and 43% across all future scenarios.
• The economic impact on the hydroelectric sector's aggregate revenues varies by scenario, with losses estimated at 41% for the B1 scenario and 49% for the A1B scenario.
• The B1 scenario, which incorporates sustainability criteria, results in the lowest expected revenue losses compared to the A2 and A1B scenarios.
• Technological improvements in the form of increased generation capacity can mitigate losses; increasing installed capacity by approximately 50% would reduce economic losses by 12% across all scenarios.
• To achieve an actual increase in annual revenue (ranging from 3% to 18%) under climate change scenarios, it would be necessary to double the installed capacity of all plants.
• The production function developed for this study found that revenues increase as runoff and installed power increase, while downfall height and reservoir volume were not statistically significant.

APA

de Murieta, E. S., & Chiabai, A. (2013). Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130507073951752643810.pdf

Chicago

de Murieta, Elisa Sainz, and Aline Chiabai. Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2013. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130507073951752643810.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Murieta |first1=Elisa Sainz |last2=Chiabai |first2=Aline |title=Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=April 2013 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130507073951752643810.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{demurieta2013climate, author = {de Murieta, Elisa Sainz and Chiabai, Aline}, title = {{Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2013}, month = apr, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130507073951752643810.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }