Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS

The study analyzes the impact of partial CCS deployment in Europe by 2030, categorizing countries as pioneers or laggards based on their R&D projects and national roadmaps. Using a dispatch model, the authors find that the economic outcomes of pioneering are heterogeneous: while electricity suppliers in Poland, the UK, and the Netherlands may see increased producer surpluses, consumers in the UK could face higher wholesale prices due to the high cost of gas-fired CCS. Conversely, Romania is projected to experience lower wholesale prices and increased domestic production. The results suggest that being a pioneer does not automatically guarantee an advantage, as benefits are unevenly distributed between producers and consumers.

• The authors identify four EU-27 countries as 'pioneers' based on the criteria of having implemented CCS R&D projects and established a national CCS roadmap: Poland, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Romania. Norway is also included as a leader due to its large storage capacity and high public acceptance.
• In the UK, the deployment of gas-fired power plants equipped with CCS is expected to increase wholesale electricity prices by 2030, which may negatively impact electricity consumers and lead to a decline in domestic production and an increase in imports.
• Romania is projected to experience a decrease in wholesale electricity prices and a corresponding increase in domestic electricity production and exports to neighboring countries due to the relatively low running costs of its coal-fired CCS plants.
• Electricity producer surpluses are expected to increase significantly for pioneers using coal-fired CCS, specifically Poland, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, even after accounting for higher annualized investment costs.
• Pioneering CCS does not consistently result in economic gains for all actors; for example, electricity suppliers in Norway and Romania are projected to see a decrease in producer surpluses due to lower wholesale prices.
• The impact on 'laggard' countries is mixed: while some may see a decline in wholesale prices and an increase in profits for some suppliers (e.g., Ireland), the total electricity producer surplus for the laggard group as a whole is expected to decline.

APA

Rübbelke, D., & Vögele, S. (2013). Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130925083223521453380.pdf

Chicago

Rübbelke, Dirk, and Stefan Vögele. Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2013. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130925083223521453380.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rübbelke |first1=Dirk |last2=Vögele |first2=Stefan |title=Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=September 2013 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130925083223521453380.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rbbelke2013time, author = {Rübbelke, Dirk and Vögele, Stefan}, title = {{Time and tide wait for no man: pioneers and laggards in the deployment of CCS}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2013}, month = sep, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130925083223521453380.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }