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AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.
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Document type: Research paper
Agriculture After independence
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines the stagnation of African agricultural productivity since independence, highlighting the roles of poor policy, land tenure issues, conflict, and climate change in maintaining a significant yield gap compared to the rest of the world.
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Document type: Research paper
Agricultural reform elsewhere in the world: Lessons for Africa?
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies examines agricultural reforms in China, Brazil, and Egypt to identify potential lessons for improving productivity and food security in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
Vom geopolitischen Wettbewerb zur strategischen Zusammenarbeit im Bereich CRM: Das Dreieck EU-Indonesien-Afrika
This research paper examines the potential for triangular cooperation between the European Union (EU), Indonesia, and African nations in the critical raw materials (CRM) sector. It argues that while the EU and Indonesia currently employ different partnership models in Africa—the EU focusing on supply chain integration and ESG standards, and Indonesia focusing on downstream industrialisation and South-South cooperation—these differences are complementary. The authors propose a framework where EU financial instruments and ESG expertise combine with Indonesia's technical experience in mineral processing to support African goals of local value addition and industrialisation, thereby reducing all parties' dependence on China.
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Document type: Research paper
Ein Leitfaden für Länderplattformen zur Ausweitung der Anpassungsfinanzierung
This guide by the Africa Policy Research Institute outlines a strategic framework to close the adaptation finance gap, particularly in the Global South. It proposes moving from fragmented, project-based funding to 'Country Platforms for Climate Action'—nationally led governance frameworks that coordinate policy and de-risk investments. The document provides a practical 8-Move Playbook for policymakers to transform climate adaptation from a perceived cost into a scalable asset class by layering finance and linking payments to verified resilience outcomes.
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Document type: Guide
Renegotiation of Australia’s Bilateral Investment Treaties
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) submitted recommendations to Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade regarding the renegotiation of older-generation bilateral investment treaties (BITs). The IISD advocates for terminating outdated treaties and replacing them with a new generation of frameworks that prioritize sustainable development, climate action, and national regulatory autonomy over blanket investor protections.
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Document type: Statement
Renegotiation of Australia’s Bilateral Investment Treaties
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) submitted recommendations to the Australian government regarding the renegotiation of older-generation bilateral investment treaties (BITs). The IISD argues that these treaties prioritize investor protection and investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) over public policy and urges a shift toward treaties that facilitate sustainable investment and climate action.
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Document type: Report
Priorities and Benefits of the AfCFTA
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the priorities and potential benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). It analyzes Africa's historical reliance on primary commodity exports, the prevalence of informal intra-African trade due to high formal costs, and how the AfCFTA aims to drive industrialization and structural transformation by reducing trade barriers and fostering regional value chains.
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Document type: Report
Manufacturing
This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This introduction to the Africa Manufacturing Forecast examines the continent's struggle with industrialisation, noting a stagnation in manufacturing value added and a decline in global market share. It outlines current strategic efforts to reverse this trend through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the adoption of green and digital technologies, and the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to move Africa up the global value chain.
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Document type: Report
The AfCFTA Implementation Challenges
This research paper examines the implementation challenges of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), focusing on the economic disparities between member states and the resulting risks for Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
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Document type: Research paper
Transforming agriculture in Africa
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the barriers to agricultural transformation in Africa, focusing on the critical link between formal land ownership, access to credit, and food security.
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Document type: Report
Africa Health and WaSH Futures: Thematic Futures
This document provides conclusions and strategic recommendations for improving health and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) systems across Africa. It emphasizes the need for a shift from donor dependency toward domestic investment, innovative financing, and regional self-reliance to transform health outcomes into macroeconomic drivers of growth.
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Document type: Report
AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO AGENDA 2063: THEMATIC FUTURES
This report outlines the 'Combined scenario' for Africa's economic structural transformation toward 2043, focusing on the shift from low-productivity to high-productivity sectors. It details the projected roles of manufacturing, services, agriculture, and ICT, while emphasizing the necessity of urban resilience and regional trade integration via AfCFTA to achieve a diversified, knowledge-based economy.
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Document type: Report
The Manufacturing Sector in Africa
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the state of the manufacturing sector across Africa, highlighting a trend of premature deindustrialization and the varying levels of industrialization across different income groups. It examines the role of Chinese investment in the continent's industrial landscape and the challenges African nations face in moving from raw material exports to high-value manufacturing.
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Document type: Research paper
AFRICA MANUFACTURING FORECAST: THEMATIC FUTURES
This report conclusion outlines a strategic vision for Africa's industrialisation by 2043, arguing that a shift from exporting raw materials to manufacturing value-added goods can drive significant GDP growth, employment, and poverty reduction. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and diversifying foreign direct investment as key catalysts for this transformation.
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Document type: Report
Reasons for Africa’s Under-Industrialisation
This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the historical, structural, and policy-driven reasons for Africa's under-industrialisation. It identifies a combination of colonial legacies, infrastructure deficits, skills gaps, and capital constraints as primary barriers, while noting that some countries have seen success through focused industrial strategies and the potential for global supply chain shifts to create new opportunities.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Contribution to Carbon Emissions to 2063: Current Path vs Combined Scenario
This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
Impact of the Manufacturing Scenario
This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic size, population and growth rates
This research paper analyzes the economic trajectory of Africa on its 'Current Path' through 2043, highlighting a growing divergence in GDP per capita between Africa and the rest of the world despite an increase in the absolute size of the African economy.
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Document type: Research paper