Search Climate Insights Directory

The study examines how climate change disrupts food production systems in Kenya's arid and semi-arid rangelands, identifying that reduced water availability and temperature variability threaten value chain sustainability. It argues that resilience requires integrating tailored strategies, improving access to climate information services, and fostering collaboration between government, private sector, and local communities to mitigate economic losses and food insecurity.

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to project outcomes for 2050 in four arid and semiarid counties in Kenya. The study evaluates three scenarios—achieving 10% forest cover, converting forests to croplands, and restoring degraded forests—to guide sustainable land management and meet Kenyan government climate commitments.

The CCFLA and Urban-Act National Assessment Tool provides a framework for national governments to evaluate the regulatory, financial, and institutional conditions that affect urban climate finance. The tool consists of 64 dimensions across four categories: Climate Policy, Budget and Finance, Climate Data, and Vertical and Horizontal Coordination. It aims to identify strengths and gaps in national frameworks to facilitate recommendations for improving subnational access to finance, having been piloted in India and Indonesia.

The report forecasts that Africa will create between 1.5 and 3.3 million new direct green jobs by 2030 across 12 material value chains. The energy and power sector is the primary driver, with solar energy alone projected to generate up to 1.7 million jobs. The analysis highlights a significant need for both unskilled labor (40% of total) and specialized skills (30%), particularly in solar, climate-smart agriculture, and waste recycling. Five focus countries—South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the DRC—are expected to contribute up to 720,000 of these jobs, with South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria showing the highest potential. The report emphasizes that while long-term estimates suggest up to 100 million green jobs by 2050, immediate investment in human capital and vocational training is required to realize this growth.

The document argues that the OECD's Pillar Two GloBE rules undermine the effectiveness of traditional SEZ fiscal incentives, such as corporate income tax exemptions, by requiring a minimum effective tax rate (ETR) of 15%. It suggests that countries should shift from profit-based incentives to cost-based incentives and non-fiscal improvements to maintain competitiveness without sacrificing tax revenue. The brief also warns of legal risks associated with reforming these incentives due to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms and bilateral investment treaties.

The document argues that the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) reduces the effectiveness of traditional corporate tax incentives in SEZs, such as tax holidays and reduced rates, for large multinational enterprises. It suggests that countries should shift from profit-based tax competition toward improving the overall investment environment and utilizing non-fiscal incentives. The brief also warns of legal risks associated with reforming these incentives, specifically regarding investor-state dispute settlements (ISDS) and stabilization clauses, while recommending that SEZs be leveraged to support the energy transition and renewable energy investment.

The document analyzes how the OECD's Pillar Two GloBE rules, which mandate a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large multinationals, undermine traditional SEZ tax incentives like corporate income tax exemptions. It argues that such incentives are often ineffective for long-term competitiveness and recommends that countries shift toward non-fiscal incentives, cost-based incentives, and sustainable energy investments to avoid revenue loss to other jurisdictions.

China has positioned itself as a leader in green technology innovation, utilizing aid, trade, and investment to support the energy transition in the Global South. Through mechanisms like the Belt and Road Initiative and the South–South Climate Cooperation Fund, China has deployed renewable energy, electric vehicles, and sustainable agricultural technologies across Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. However, the effectiveness of these partnerships is hindered by gaps between environmental commitments and actual impacts, limited local operational capacity, geopolitical tensions with Western nations, and difficulties in meeting global ESG standards.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources and critical minerals but faces significant barriers in financing, technology ownership, and value chain integration. While some progress has been made in solar, wind, and hydropower, the continent remains heavily reliant on imports for technology and patents. The document argues for strengthened partnerships, increased climate finance from the Global North, and the development of local manufacturing to ensure a just energy transition.

The report analyzes the competition between Western and Chinese narratives in Africa, specifically debunking the 'debt-trap' narrative and arguing that African states exercise strategic agency by viewing both the US and China as viable partners rather than choosing one in a zero-sum game.

The R3Lab Toolkit offers a framework for insurance regulators to balance the promotion of innovation with consumer protection. It outlines a process starting with innovation gap and ecosystem assessments, followed by the application of a 'toolbox' comprising regulatory adjustments (e.g., sandboxes, tiered licensing), supervisory improvements (e.g., streamlined approvals, suptech), proactive engagement (e.g., newsletters, workshops), and monitoring via KPIs and social listening. The guide emphasizes that the choice of tools must be fit-for-context and supported by top leadership buy-in and internal capacity building.

The document outlines FSD Africa's commitment to combating money laundering and terrorism financing in accordance with international and national laws, including those of Kenya and its donor countries. It defines a risk-based approach involving screening, training, and monitoring, and assigns specific oversight roles to the Risk and Compliance Lead (as MLRO), the CEO, and the Board of Directors. The policy extends these compliance requirements to all personnel and grantees, mandating strict reporting timelines and due diligence processes.

The document evaluates LIMBUA Group Limited, a Kenyan SME processing macadamia, avocado, and mangoes, using the RAI Tool to measure compliance with CFS-RAI principles. The analysis finds high levels of compliance across most dimensions, particularly in human resource development and inclusive governance. LIMBUA supports 9,647 organic and FairTrade certified farmers in Embu and Kirinyaga counties, providing a 20% price premium and technical advisory services via its proprietary BioFarm digital system. Key challenges identified include competition from unethical brokers, climate change affecting production cycles, and difficulties in accessing local startup finance. The report recommends further investment in diversification, improved seasonal cash flow support for farmers, and government intervention to regulate brokers.

The FSD Program addresses the funding gap for the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals by shifting focus from the supply side of finance to the demand side. By analyzing firm-level investment decisions in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs), the program identifies the enabling conditions and blended-finance instruments—such as guarantees and risk mitigation—necessary to make sustainable projects attractive to private investors. This micro-level evidence is then used to inform macro-level global and regional policy frameworks.

The document describes La Niña as the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, characterized by the movement of cold water to the central and eastern Pacific surface. For 2024, there is an 85% chance of a transition to neutral conditions between April and June, and a 60% chance of La Niña developing by June to August. The text highlights that multi-year La Niña events are increasing in frequency, with five of the last ten occurring in the past 25 years. While La Niña temporarily lowers global average surface temperatures by about 0.1C, it does not offset human-caused warming; recent La Niña years have been among the top 10 hottest years ever. Regional impacts include drier conditions in East Africa and the southern US, and wetter conditions in Southeast Asia, India, and northern South America, affecting various crop yields and increasing the risk of floods and droughts.

The document addresses the humanitarian and environmental crisis caused by record-breaking rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, affecting nearly 1.5 million people. It attributes the severity of the disaster to both global greenhouse gas emissions from wealthy nations and domestic failures, including the dismantling of environmental legislation and a lack of integrated disaster management. The author advocates for a transition from 20th-century concrete infrastructure to 21st-century nature-based solutions and integrated urban land use management to enhance climate resilience.

The toolkit offers a framework for building MEL systems to ensure the effectiveness of National Adaptation Plan processes, avoid unintended negative effects, and support reporting requirements under the Paris Agreement.

The report examines the role of sustainable debt in transitioning the agri-food sector to net-zero, highlighting the need for finance to reach smallholder farmers. It introduces new Climate Bonds Sector Criteria for Agriculture Production and Deforestation and Conversion Free (DCF) Sourcing to standardize green activities. The analysis reveals that while sovereign issuers dominate the AFOLU sustainable debt market, there is a critical need for more material KPIs beyond scope 3 GHG emissions and greater transparency in the loan market to scale impactful investments.

The report highlights a contradictory global trend: while most countries are reducing coal construction and many are committing to phase-outs, global coal capacity increased by 11% since 2015, reaching a record high in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by China, which accounted for two-thirds of the 2023 increase. Outside China, new construction starts reached their lowest level since 2015. The report notes that only 15% of global operational capacity has a documented phase-out plan aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Regional analyses show significant progress in the EU and UK, though some countries lag behind 2030 targets, and a volatile situation in Sub-Saharan Africa where South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal despite an energy crisis.

The document argues that the global transition to renewable energy, specifically wind and solar, frequently results in 'green colonialism' where Indigenous rights to self-determination and free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) are ignored. It documents human rights violations and land-grabbing in countries such as Kenya, Norway, Colombia, and Mexico, noting that Indigenous communities often respond through litigation, protest, and efforts to secure project ownership. The authors recommend the formal recognition of Indigenous rights, the strict application of FPIC, the implementation of Indigenous-led environmental impact assessments, and the promotion of Indigenous ownership to ensure a just transition.