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The document outlines the drivers of saltwater intrusion, including sea-level rise and groundwater extraction, and details its impacts on agriculture, human health, and ecosystems. It suggests reporting strategies such as using visual tools to identify 'ghost forests' and distinguishing between 'solutions' and 'strategies' for adaptation.

The document introduces Senegal as a lower-middle-income country in West Africa with a dry tropical climate and significant mineral deposits. It outlines the country's political evolution from independence in 1960 through various peaceful transitions of power, highlighting its position as a democratic example in the region.

The report analyzes Ghana's socio-economic landscape, projecting its development to 2043. It highlights a strong growth potential driven by natural resources but warns of persistent poverty, high public debt, and corruption. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with several targeted scenarios—including Governance, Manufacturing, and AfCFTA—demonstrating that integrated policy interventions in education, health, and industrialization could significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty. It also addresses critical challenges such as the 'galamsey' illegal mining crisis affecting water and forests, and the need for a transition toward renewable energy to mitigate rising carbon emissions.

The report projects that The Gambia's population will grow to 4.4 million by 2043, with urbanisation reaching 72.1%. While GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$4,950 on the Current Path, the report highlights significant vulnerabilities in food security and a high youth unemployment rate of approximately 35%. Sectoral scenarios suggest that trade liberalisation via AfCFTA and agricultural improvements offer the highest potential for economic growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could nearly double the economy to US$18.5 billion, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions reaching 1.7 million tons.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario for The Gambia projects a significant increase in GDP per capita to US$7,823 by 2043, nearly doubling the overall economy to US$18.5 billion. While the scenario predicts a drastic reduction in extreme poverty—leaving only 0.15% of the population below the poverty line—it also forecasts a rise in carbon emissions to 1.7 million tons, indicating a high cost of environmental degradation.

The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and economic growth by 2043, with GDP per capita rising to US$10,839 under the Current Path. While the country has high human development and political stability, it faces challenges including a high dependency on food imports (90% of food consumed is imported) and vulnerability to climate-induced flooding. The analysis explores several scenarios, finding that 'Free Trade' and 'Manufacturing/Transfers' have the highest potential to increase GDP per capita, while a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario could reduce extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population but would increase carbon emissions to 0.47 million tons by 2043. Energy projections suggest a transition toward renewables, with a goal for them to constitute 50% of total energy production by 2043.

The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.

The document introduces ECOWAS as a regional economic community established in 1975 to promote economic integration and stability in West Africa. While it has achieved some success in facilitating free movement for citizens, the bloc currently faces significant threats from terrorism, climate change in the Sahel, and infrastructure deficits. The document highlights a critical geopolitical crisis where Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have announced their intention to exit the bloc by January 2025, citing sanctions and a failure to combat insecurity.

The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and GDP per capita growth by 2043, though it remains highly dependent on food imports and tourism. While various sectoral interventions—particularly free trade and manufacturing—could further boost GDP and reduce poverty, they are also projected to increase carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP increase to US$8.7 billion and a reduction of extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population by 2043.

The report details specific multipliers and targets for Burundi across several development scenarios. Key interventions include improving government effectiveness, reducing child and maternal mortality, increasing vocational training, boosting agricultural yields, and expanding renewable energy and ICT infrastructure. The document compares these projected outcomes against averages for low-income African countries and historical benchmarks from other African nations.

The report details systemic gender discrimination in African households, highlighting the prevalence of child marriage, the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women, and legal and cultural barriers to equal divorce and inheritance rights.

The report highlights a significant gap between the skills of African graduates and the requirements of the modern job market, particularly in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). It notes that sub-Saharan Africa has low enrollment in vocational programmes compared to global averages, though some countries like Angola perform better. The text argues for a balance between academic and vocational training to support agribusiness and manufacturing, while warning that poor foundational education in sub-Saharan Africa creates a lack of 'readily trainable workers' for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The report examines how national investment laws handle dispute prevention, management, and settlement (DPMS). It finds that while most laws include DPMS provisions—particularly in Africa and Asia—the use of international arbitration, especially through 'advance consent,' exposes states to significant financial risks. The authors advocate for prioritizing national courts and non-adjudicative mechanisms, providing a structured framework for states to reform their investment laws based on specific national policy problems rather than generic international standards.

The report examines how national investment laws handle the prevention, management, and settlement of disputes between investors and states. Based on an analysis of 167 laws, it finds that while dispute resolution is a common feature—particularly in Africa and Asia—the use of international arbitration and 'prior consent' clauses exposes states to significant financial and regulatory risks. The authors argue that states should prioritize national courts and administrative reviews over parallel arbitration systems and strongly recommend against including unilateral prior consent to international arbitration in national legislation.

The AfCFTA faces significant implementation hurdles due to the extreme economic disparity between member states, which may lead to 'winners and losers' where advanced economies benefit while least developed countries (LDCs) face initial welfare losses. Key challenges include the loss of critical tariff revenues for some governments, weak institutional capacities in LDCs, and limited commitment to the free movement of labour. To mitigate these risks, the agreement employs special and differential treatment, granting LDCs and a specific 'Group of 6' (G6) longer phase-out periods for tariff liberalisation, though the authors argue that additional support from the AU Secretariat and private finance is necessary to bridge the development gap.

The study finds that while Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa generally maintain cautious, non-aligned international postures, their regional approaches vary significantly. Ethiopia has adopted a highly assertive posture regarding sea access and geostrategic relevance; Senegal demonstrated assertive interventionism during the 2017 Gambian crisis to protect internal security; and South Africa maintains a 'reluctant hegemon' image, experiencing setbacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to military and agency constraints.

The research argues that Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa generally adopt a 'cautious' posture internationally—characterized by non-alignment and partnership diversification—while tending toward more 'assertive' approaches regionally. However, South Africa serves as a partial exception, exhibiting assertiveness internationally (notably regarding Gaza) and a more cautious or less effective approach regionally (such as in the DRC). The paper uses these cases to argue for a plural conception of 'African agencies' driven by national interest and the goal of strategic autonomy.

The document analyzes the rising trend of youth emigration from West Africa, driven by high unemployment, insecurity, and structural inequality. It highlights the resulting brain drain in critical sectors and suggests leveraging the digital economy and diaspora skills to create regional opportunities.

The document argues that ECOWAS's perceived success in promoting democracy during the 2000s and 2010s was illusory, based on a narrow definition of democracy centered on elections rather than human rights and the rule of law. This approach, combined with a tendency to defer to the interests of heads of state, has led to a disconnect between the bloc and West African citizens. The paper highlights the impact of recent coups since 2020 and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as evidence of this failure and a decline in Nigeria's regional influence. It concludes by recommending the creation of a Citizens Consultation Forum and a strategic task force on governance to restore credibility.

The document examines the tension between Africa's potential as a clean energy leader and the restrictive nature of unilateral trade instruments like the EU's CBAM. While Africa possesses significant renewable energy potential and 30% of global critical mineral reserves, the paper argues that CBAM could reduce collective GDP by 0.91% (approximately USD 25 billion) and limit fiscal space for green R&D. It suggests that African nations leverage their strategic mineral advantages, utilize the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to eliminate 97% of internal tariffs, and push for more structured discussions on trade restrictions within the UNFCCC and WTO.