Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home: The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa

The study finds that while Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa generally maintain cautious, non-aligned international postures, their regional approaches vary significantly. Ethiopia has adopted a highly assertive posture regarding sea access and geostrategic relevance; Senegal demonstrated assertive interventionism during the 2017 Gambian crisis to protect internal security; and South Africa maintains a 'reluctant hegemon' image, experiencing setbacks in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to military and agency constraints.

• Internationally, Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa share a broadly cautious orientation defined by pragmatism, hedging, the diversification of economic partnerships, and non-alignment, such as regarding the war in Ukraine. South Africa is a partial exception due to its firmer response to the Trump administration and its outspoken position on the Israeli–Palestinian issue.
• Senegal's role in the 2017 Gambian political crisis, where it led an ECOWAS intervention to remove Yahya Jammeh and install Adama Barrow, represented an assertive departure from its usual mediator role. This action was driven by internal security interests, specifically the Casamance separatist movement, and reflected power politics and hard-power strategies within a multilateral framework.
• Ethiopia has shifted toward a highly assertive regional posture under President Abiy Ahmed, primarily focused on securing sea access to overcome the constraints of being landlocked and to divert attention from internal security issues. This is evidenced by the 2024 MoU with Somaliland, rhetorical escalation with Eritrea over the Port of Assab, and tensions with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
• South Africa's regional policy is defined by 'quiet diplomacy' and the role of a 'reluctant hegemon'. Its involvement in the SADC mission in North Kivu is viewed as a setback that exposed limitations in its military capacity and regional influence, following troop losses and diplomatic tensions between Cyril Ramaphosa and Paul Kagame.
• Despite the differences between regional and international strategies, the foreign policy actions of Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa are all fundamentally aimed at the consolidation of strategic autonomy.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2026). Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home: The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa. https://saiia.org.za/research/cautious-abroad-assertive-at-home-the-foreign-policies-of-ethiopia-senegal-and-south-africa/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home: The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa. 2026. https://saiia.org.za/research/cautious-abroad-assertive-at-home-the-foreign-policies-of-ethiopia-senegal-and-south-africa/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home: The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa |date=17 March 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/cautious-abroad-assertive-at-home-the-foreign-policies-of-ethiopia-senegal-and-south-africa/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2026cautious, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home: The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/cautious-abroad-assertive-at-home-the-foreign-policies-of-ethiopia-senegal-and-south-africa/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }