Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home? The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa

The research argues that Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa generally adopt a 'cautious' posture internationally—characterized by non-alignment and partnership diversification—while tending toward more 'assertive' approaches regionally. However, South Africa serves as a partial exception, exhibiting assertiveness internationally (notably regarding Gaza) and a more cautious or less effective approach regionally (such as in the DRC). The paper uses these cases to argue for a plural conception of 'African agencies' driven by national interest and the goal of strategic autonomy.

• At the international level, the foreign policies of Ethiopia, Senegal, and South Africa are characterized by non-alignment, pragmatism, hedging, and the diversification of economic partnerships.
• All three countries demonstrated non-alignment regarding the war in Ukraine, primarily through abstentions or absences in UN General Assembly votes, though Senegal and South Africa engaged in 'active non-alignment' via a 2023 peace mission to Russia and Ukraine.
• South Africa diverges from the common cautious international trend through its resolute pro-Palestinian stance and its December 2023 case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) alleging genocide.
• Senegal demonstrated an assertive regional posture during the 2016–2017 Gambian political crisis, where it led the ECOWAS military intervention (ECOMIG) to remove Yahya Jammeh, driven by national security interests and the desire to combat Casamance secessionists.
• Ethiopia has adopted a 'highly assertive' regional strategy to secure sea access, notably through a January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland for the Port of Berbera, which increased tensions with Somalia and Egypt.
• Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea are marked by unpredictable escalation and reciprocal accusations, including a January 2026 claim by Ethiopia that Eritrea sent 56,000 rounds of ammunition to Fano militias in the Amhara region.
• South Africa's regional influence has diminished, exemplified by the failure of the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) to contain the M23 insurgency and the subsequent withdrawal of South African troops from MONUSCO in February 2026.
• South Africa employs 'quiet diplomacy'—conducting mediation behind closed doors—as seen in its historical approach to Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Sudan to avoid appearing as a hegemonic power.

APA

Scialoja, S. (2026). Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home? The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_364_CautiousAbroadAssertiveAtHome.pdf

Chicago

Scialoja, Sofia. Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home? The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2026. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_364_CautiousAbroadAssertiveAtHome.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scialoja |first1=Sofia |title=Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home? The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=February 2026 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_364_CautiousAbroadAssertiveAtHome.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scialoja2026cautious, author = {Scialoja, Sofia}, title = {{Cautious Abroad, Assertive at Home? The Foreign Policies of Ethiopia, Senegal and South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2026}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/SAIIA_OP_364_CautiousAbroadAssertiveAtHome.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }