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The briefing argues that the ADB's financial intermediary (FI) lending, specifically its $95 million equity investment in Clifford Capital, creates a transparency loophole that allows continued support for fossil gas projects. It highlights that while the ADB claims to 'ring-fence' its funds, Clifford Capital continues to finance oil and gas projects globally and in Asia. The document provides case studies of the Tangguh LNG project in Indonesia and the Bhola-2 gas power plant in Bangladesh to illustrate the environmental and social harms resulting from such investments, including mangrove destruction and forced land acquisition. It concludes that the ADB's reliance on outdated 2009 policies for these investments avoids the stricter requirements of the 2025 Environmental and Social Framework.

The report examines the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) 95 million USD equity investment in Clifford Capital, a Singapore-based financial intermediary. It argues that ADB's use of financial intermediaries (FIs) creates a transparency gap that allows continued support for fossil gas projects, contradicting the bank's stated goals of Paris Agreement alignment. The document highlights specific projects in Indonesia and Bangladesh as examples of environmental and social harm resulting from such investments and calls for a phased exit from fossil gas funding.

The document argues that Africa's economic underperformance is linked to a failure to maximize globalization and a heavy reliance on primary exports. It forecasts that full implementation of the AfCFTA would increase Africa's share of world exports to 4.4% and raise GDP per capita to US$6,602 by 2043, compared to 3.5% of exports and US$6,197 GDP per capita under a 'Current Path' scenario. Additionally, the AfCFTA is identified as a tool to reduce African countries' exposure to the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by diversifying export markets.

The report examines the evolution of governance in the Global South, tracing the impact of colonial legacies, Cold War geopolitics, and structural adjustment programmes. It analyzes current governance performance using World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, noting a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity in some regions, while others show improved state capacity despite limited democratic freedoms.

The document reports that carbon pricing now covers over 23% of global greenhouse gas emissions through 43 carbon taxes and 38 emissions trading systems. It highlights the vulnerability of specific industrial sectors in Southeast Asia to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which entered its definitive phase in January 2026, noting that over 20% of Viet Nam’s iron and steel exports and nearly 20% of Indonesia’s aluminum exports are destined for the EU. The briefing also details the expansion of Article 6.2 bilateral agreements, with over 100 announced or formalized, led by purchasing countries such as Japan and Singapore. Regionally, Indonesia is identified as the only Southeast Asian nation with an operational ETS, having aligned its framework with Article 6 via Regulation 110/2025, although its carbon tax under Law 7/2021 remains postponed. Other updates include the Philippines moving toward formal carbon pricing legislation and Viet Nam postponing carbon market trading until the end of 2026.

The document examines how reliance on imported oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exposes Asian economies to price shocks and supply disruptions, particularly those stemming from conflicts in the Middle East. It analyzes the economic impacts on countries like Singapore, Thailand, and Japan, highlighting how fuel price volatility drives inflation and weakens currencies. The report argues that returning to coal as a short-term fallback is economically and environmentally risky compared to renewables. It recommends investing in regional connected grids and clean technology supply chains to build long-term resilience and energy security.

Vietnam's solar power generation helps the country avoid approximately USD 594 million in fossil fuel import costs during the current energy price surge driven by the Iran war. While Vietnam leads Southeast Asia in solar and wind shares, it continues to prioritize coal and gas in its long-term power planning, increasing its vulnerability to global price shocks.

The report examines the risks of AI integration in the ASEAN power sector, highlighting data limitations, regulatory uncertainty, and cybersecurity vulnerabilities. It argues that while AI is a 'low-hanging fruit' for accelerating the energy transition, its success depends on strengthening data foundations, updating grid codes, and building AI-ready workforces through phased roll-outs and 'AI sandboxes'.

The document examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in overcoming the technical challenges of integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) in Southeast Asia. It highlights five commercially proven AI applications: improving forecast accuracy to reduce reserve needs, enabling predictive maintenance to extend asset life, optimising dispatch to lower balancing costs, providing real-time control for grid security, and supporting dynamic line rating (DLR) to increase transmission capacity. The report provides global case studies—including examples from Google DeepMind, Siemens, and various utilities in the US, UK, and Belgium—to demonstrate how AI can reduce operational costs, curtailment, and carbon footprints while enhancing the reliability of power grids facing high VRE penetration.

The report argues that AI can significantly accelerate the energy transition in ASEAN by managing the complexity of rising variable renewable energy (VRE) shares. It identifies five key AI applications—forecasting, predictive maintenance, dispatch optimisation, real-time control, and dynamic line rating—that can reduce operational costs and emissions. While ASEAN shows strong digital readiness, current AI adoption is fragmented and pilot-based. The report estimates that widespread AI adoption could save up to $67 billion and reduce nearly 400 million tonnes of CO2 by 2035, provided that regulatory, data, and cybersecurity challenges are addressed.

The 12th Meeting of the San Giorgio Group (SGG12) focused on moving climate finance from ideas to large-scale delivery, emphasizing system coherence and country-level impact. The group highlighted that annual climate finance now exceeds USD 2 trillion, driven by renewable energy and transport electrification. Key priorities include reforming Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), scaling guarantees and catalytic equity, and addressing the high cost of capital in developing countries. The agenda also calls for 'radical localism' to center people in the climate narrative and suggests leveraging artificial intelligence and underutilized public financing institutions, such as export credit agencies, to accelerate the energy transition.

The document examines the trend of ASEAN countries increasing LNG import infrastructure, with planned investments of USD 20.4 billion. It argues that LNG fails to provide true energy security due to its sensitivity to geopolitical shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, and competition for supply with Europe. The author suggests that Southeast Asian nations should instead prioritize domestic renewable energy, leverage their own solar manufacturing capacity, and accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid to enhance resilience and reduce import dependency.

The document analyzes the tension between the multilateral Work Programme on Electronic Commerce (WPEC) and the plurilateral Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on E-Commerce. It highlights the conflict over the moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, where developing countries fear revenue loss and policy constraints, while other members push for a permanent ban on such duties. The author outlines the stakes for MC14, including the potential incorporation of the JSI Agreement into the WTO framework and the future of the WPEC.

India is positioning itself as a green hydrogen hub by designating ports like V. O. Chidambaranar (VOC), Paradip, and Deendayal for hydrogen projects. While domestic coastal corridors provide learning opportunities, they lack the scale to be commercially viable, with e-fuel demand on the VOC–Deendayal route estimated at only 19–20 kilotons annually. In contrast, an international corridor linking Rotterdam, India, and Singapore could unlock over 1 million tons of annual e-fuel bunkering demand by 2030. The document highlights that while green methanol vessels have a total cost of ownership (TCO) nearly 80% higher than conventional vessels, IMO incentives and India's low-cost e-fuel production could make ammonia-powered vessels more competitive, potentially reducing TCO by 16% to 28% on routes to Singapore and Rotterdam respectively.

The document examines the efforts of 'the rest of the world' to adapt to a chaotic trade environment characterized by US tariff adjustments and the weakening of global institutions. It highlights the launch of the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FIT-P), a 16-member group of small states aiming to bolster the WTO and collaborate on digital trade. It also analyzes the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), noting its attempts to coordinate with the EU and ASEAN while struggling with internal institutional weaknesses, a slow accession process, and the daunting task of renegotiating most of its agreement chapters.

The document outlines a three-goal approach for climate finance vehicles to manage climate risk and build resilience. Goal 1 focuses on a five-step process to identify and manage physical climate hazards to align with international standards like the ISSB and Paris Agreement. Goal 2 guides the creation of an evidence-backed adaptation thesis to secure investor commitments, particularly for those targeting Multilateral Development Bank (MDB) funding. Goal 3 provides a methodology for designing impact measurement frameworks, including theories of change and indicator tables, to track resilience outcomes and avoid maladaptation.

The document examines the evolution of carbon pricing globally and regionally, with a deep dive into Southeast Asian markets. It analyzes the impact of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on regional exports and the progress of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Specific country updates detail Indonesia's operational ETS, the Philippines' legislative efforts toward a cap-and-invest system, and Viet Nam's pilot phase for a national compliance market.

The report argues that maintaining secure maritime food trade is a US national security imperative, as disruptions to key chokepoints—specifically the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Malacca—can trigger cascading global risks. Using a strategic foresight approach, the authors analyze four scenarios based on the uncertainty of international cooperation and port infrastructure resilience. They find that climate stressors, such as a projected global warming increase of over 2°C by 2040, threaten agricultural productivity and port operability. These vulnerabilities can be exploited by hostile actors, such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia, to weaponize food and destabilize regions. The report recommends that the US incorporate maritime food trade resilience into its National Security Strategy, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and revitalize flexible development assistance to prevent the erosion of soft power and protect military supply chains.

In 2025, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for over a quarter of global new car sales, driven by a significant shift in emerging markets. While legacy auto markets in the US and Canada have seen a rollback of incentives, countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America are 'leapfrogging' advanced economies. Viet Nam and Singapore have reached EV sales shares exceeding 40%, surpassing the UK and EU. China continues to dominate as the largest market, with its exports increasingly targeting non-OECD markets such as Brazil, Mexico, the UAE, and Indonesia. The report highlights that EVs significantly reduce fossil fuel demand, with battery electric vehicles in Brazil delivering an estimated 90% reduction compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.

Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines collectively drive nearly 60% of ASEAN’s power demand and emissions, with a heavy historical reliance on coal. While coal still dominates their energy mixes, all three nations are pivoting toward clean energy, attracting $4.6 billion in investment in 2024. Each country aims for renewables to exceed 50% of their installed capacity mix by 2030–2034. Viet Nam has led the region in new wind and solar generation, the Philippines operates a fully liberalised electricity market to attract FDI, and Indonesia is leveraging its mineral industrialisation to build an electric vehicle ecosystem while planning significant solar expansions.