The EV leapfrog - how emerging markets are driving a global EV boom

In 2025, electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for over a quarter of global new car sales, driven by a significant shift in emerging markets. While legacy auto markets in the US and Canada have seen a rollback of incentives, countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America are 'leapfrogging' advanced economies. Viet Nam and Singapore have reached EV sales shares exceeding 40%, surpassing the UK and EU. China continues to dominate as the largest market, with its exports increasingly targeting non-OECD markets such as Brazil, Mexico, the UAE, and Indonesia. The report highlights that EVs significantly reduce fossil fuel demand, with battery electric vehicles in Brazil delivering an estimated 90% reduction compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.

• Global EV adoption has accelerated significantly, with EVs making up over 25% of new car sales between January and October 2025, compared to less than 3% in 2019. By 2025, 39 countries achieved an EV sales share greater than 10%, with 12 of those located outside Europe.
• China remains the dominant global EV market, on track to exceed a 50% EV sales share for the first time in 2025 and likely representing nearly two-thirds of all global EV sales.
• Several emerging markets in the ASEAN region have surpassed advanced economies in EV penetration. Viet Nam and Singapore both exceeded 40% EV sales share in 2025, overtaking the UK (33%) and the EU (26%). Thailand reached a 20% share, and Indonesia reached 15%, the latter surpassing the United States.
• In Latin America, Uruguay has reached a 27% EV sales share, while Costa Rica has reached 17%. Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil have all achieved higher EV sales penetration than Japan, which has remained around 3% since 2022.
• Strategic policies are driving adoption in emerging markets, including Ethiopia's 2024 ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle imports and Nepal's 2024 EV sales share of 76%. Other measures include Türkiye's tax cuts and Indonesia's reduced VAT for vehicles meeting local content requirements.
• Chinese EV exports are shifting toward non-OECD markets, with the value of these exports nearly tripling since July 2023 (an increase of $16.2bn). Top destinations in 2025 include Brazil, Mexico, the UAE, and Indonesia.
• EVs significantly lower fossil fuel reliance due to higher efficiency. In Brazil, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reduce fossil fuel demand by an estimated 90% compared to ICE vehicles; in Indonesia, the reduction is close to 50% despite a fossil-heavy electricity mix.
• EV incentives have been rolled back in some advanced economies in 2025, such as the US, where the Trump administration removed the federal EV tax credit in October 2025, and Canada, where the iZEV program funding ended in January 2025.

APA

Graham, E. (2025). The EV leapfrog - how emerging markets are driving a global EV boom. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/The-EV-leapfrog-PDF.pdf

Chicago

Graham, Euan. The EV leapfrog - how emerging markets are driving a global EV boom. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/The-EV-leapfrog-PDF.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Graham |first1=Euan |title=The EV leapfrog - how emerging markets are driving a global EV boom |publisher=Ember |date=16 December 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/The-EV-leapfrog-PDF.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{graham2025leapfrog, author = {Graham, Euan}, title = {{The EV leapfrog - how emerging markets are driving a global EV boom}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/12/The-EV-leapfrog-PDF.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }