As chaos reigns, the rest of world fitfully prepares for the future of trade

The document examines the efforts of 'the rest of the world' to adapt to a chaotic trade environment characterized by US tariff adjustments and the weakening of global institutions. It highlights the launch of the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FIT-P), a 16-member group of small states aiming to bolster the WTO and collaborate on digital trade. It also analyzes the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), noting its attempts to coordinate with the EU and ASEAN while struggling with internal institutional weaknesses, a slow accession process, and the daunting task of renegotiating most of its agreement chapters.

• The US administration under President Donald Trump has caused significant global trade disruption through tariff adjustments, changing demands on allies, and the weakening of global institutions, leading many firms to freeze investment decisions.
• The Future of Investment and Trade Partnership (FIT-P) was launched in Singapore on 18 November 2025 by 16 member states—including Singapore, New Zealand, UAE, and Switzerland—to support the WTO and address the risks that protectionism poses to small states.
• FIT-P intends to use 'pathfinder initiatives' to allow small groups of members to advance specific issues first, with an early focus on digital trade facilitation and sharing experiences to mitigate risks from policies in larger economies.
• The CPTPP, in collaboration with the EU and ASEAN, has committed to responding collectively to economic disruption by emphasizing trade integration, opposing market-distorting practices and economic coercion, and supporting the WTO.
• CPTPP members have committed to maintaining a global moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, which is scheduled to expire on 31 March 2026 unless the WTO ministerial conference (26-29 March 2026) decides otherwise.
• The CPTPP suffers from a weak institutional structure and lacks a Secretariat, leading to a slow accession process where only Uruguay has received the green light to start accessions, while others like the UAE, Philippines, and Indonesia remain uncertain for 2026.
• Following a 'Year 3' review, CPTPP members decided that most of the agreement must be renegotiated, including chapters on Electronic Commerce, Trade in Services, and Investment, though the process is expected to be slow.

APA

Elms, D. (2026). As chaos reigns, the rest of world fitfully prepares for the future of trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://tessforum.org/latest/as-chaos-reigns-the-rest-of-world-fitfully-prepares-for-the-future-of-trade

Chicago

Elms, Deborah. As chaos reigns, the rest of world fitfully prepares for the future of trade. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2026. https://tessforum.org/latest/as-chaos-reigns-the-rest-of-world-fitfully-prepares-for-the-future-of-trade.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Elms |first1=Deborah |title=As chaos reigns, the rest of world fitfully prepares for the future of trade |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=20 January 2026 |url=https://tessforum.org/latest/as-chaos-reigns-the-rest-of-world-fitfully-prepares-for-the-future-of-trade |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{elms2026chaos, author = {Elms, Deborah}, title = {{As chaos reigns, the rest of world fitfully prepares for the future of trade}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://tessforum.org/latest/as-chaos-reigns-the-rest-of-world-fitfully-prepares-for-the-future-of-trade}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }